Keystone State Seen As Critical to Kerry Electoral Strategy

For John Kerry any road to the White House has to include a stretch along the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

According to political analysts, Pennsylvania, the aptly named "Keystone State", will have to fall into the Democratic column if the Massachusetts senator hopes to capture the White House this November.

"Polls that have been by me at the Keystone Poll and the Quinnipiac poll, the other substantial poll that is done, all have indicated a definitive closeness to this race," G. Terry Madonna, director of Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Politics and Public Affairs, said. "Pennsylvania will be hard-fought, closely contested and the results will to some extent probably mirror the nation."

The Three Keys to Pennsylvania

Like the much-discussed "Red" (Republican) and "Blue" (Democrat) America, much of Pennsylvania is divided according to voting trends.

The major cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh anchor the Democratic voting bloc. A wide, although less populated, swath of Pennsylvania running from the south-central part of the state, north to a wider section along the New York border is the key to any Republican candidate.

Given those general rules, the battle for the state's 21-electoral votes will likely center on three regions with diverse and divergent politics and voting histories -- suburban Philadelphia, the southwestern counties near Pittsburgh and the Lehigh Valley.

Suburban Philly, an area rife with moderate Republicans who notoriously split their tickets between the two parties, is seen as a bellwether for Pennsylvania.

"So if the Republicans cannot win those [suburban] counties, they cannot win statewide in Pennsylvania," Madonna said. "The other element in the Philadelphia suburbs that is where the largest number of undecideds or I should say swing voters live... It's ground zero in the campaign."

State Democrats, led by Governor Ed Rendell, a former Philadelphia mayor who had widespread support in these moderate Republican counties, hope to ride the governor's popularity to another election victory.

"These people [outside Philadelphia] are moderate mainstream voters, and the Republican Party seems to be getting away from moderate mainstream Republicans," Democratic Party Chair T.J. Rooney said. "We have had some really good local county chairs and other activists that have helped build the party there and then you have somebody who has the personal, political populist appeal that Ed Rendell has."

State Republicans are quick to dismiss the accusation its candidates are out of the mainstream.

"We have a very balanced ticket from the president on down," Dan Hayward, executive director of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, said, adding that the Democratic leadership has "totally lost its moorings in the state."

The Lehigh Valley, home of Allentown, Scranton and other areas northwest of Philadelphia, is another major focus of the campaign.

Rooney, a state representative from the Lehigh Valley said in addition to the work of the party and local activists, other groups -- notably America Coming Together, a progressive and controversial grassroots lobbying organization aimed at registering voters and defeating President Bush -- are building momentum in the region.

ACT has attracted voter interest and media attention for its efforts to run a "non-partisan" organization with the goal of defeating a sitting president.

"The 527s (non-profit groups), the George Soroses of this world, the Peter Lewises of this world that fund these groups have organized themselves around what they are against," Kevin Madden, spokesman for the Bush/Cheney campaign, said Monday, calling ACT's and other liberal groups of being fueled by "an agenda of anger."

But Rooney of the Pennsylvania Democrats said the group's work, while not sanctioned by his organization, has party officials "excited" about the possibility of increased voter registration and participation.

Republicans question the lack of connection between the Democrats and groups like ACT.

"They [ACT and other 527s] are the voter turnout machine for the Democratic Party," Hayward of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania said.

But Hayward adds the groups are often not local and might make the Democrats in Pennsylvania feel "that the national party and state office are leaving them out."

In southwest Pennsylvania, Democrats are trumpeting parts of Kerry's image that might appeal to more socially conservative, so-called Reagan Democrats.

"He's a former prosecutor, he's a veteran, he's a sportsman," Rooney said. "He's somebody that the Reagan Democrats that live in places like the Mon Valley in Southwestern Pennsylvania can feel very comfortable about supporting."

Republican officials contend they are making inroads into all of these areas. In southwestern parts of the state, registered Democrats are crossing over to vote Republican in higher and higher numbers, they say.

"In this state, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 400,000 in terms of registered voters," Hayward explained, but added the state remains competitive because "the Democratic Party has lost its roots in Pennsylvania."

The Four Corners Campaign

Despite the swing areas analysts say will be critical to the final result in Pennsylvania, Democrats say they are running a statewide campaign.

"This is not going to be an election where we concentrate our efforts exclusively in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and just hope to drive the volume, you know, and pump up the volume. It's not like that," Rooney said from the top floor of the Parker House Hotel where the state's 150-person delegation is staying. "We have a 'Four Corner' strategy."

In the northwest corner of the state, the two candidates are plying their messages through massive ad buys. In a recent survey of advertising by the University of Wisconsin and Nielsen Monitor-Plus, the Erie market ranked number 8 out of the 210 television markets nationwide in spending by the two presidential candidates.

The Erie campaign ad buys are part of a massive Keystone State spending spree that has cost the Kerry campaign more than $5.5 million. Outside liberal groups working to support his candidacy have spent another $4 million. The Republican Bush-Cheney campaign has spent more than $7.5 million.

Both campaigns are battling for voters in a region that has been trending Republican.

"Pennsylvania is a battleground state and Erie County is a key to that success, or failure," Tina Mengine, a delegate and adviser to the Democratic mayor of Erie, said Sunday. "I think we will see a little more activity than usual... part of that is for the longest time you could count on Erie to vote Democrat, over the last decade that has shifted."

Although the Bush campaign would not confirm its spending in the Erie area, spokesman Madden stressed Erie "is a great showcase for the issues facing the commonwealth and the country."

But a poll out on the eve of the Democratic National Convention gave Kerry a growing lead statewide. The survey, released by the Los Angeles Times on Friday, gave Kerry a 12-point lead in a direct head-to-head contest.

"I don't want to get overly optimistic," Chairman Rooney said about the poll on Saturday. "Bottom line is this, we are going to work as if Election Day is September 15, so that if we can consolidate resources, put the state in our column then that certainly frees up resources and people and all the other that can help win in battleground states that may not be [in our column]."

Party activists are quick to caution the Kerry campaign not to take Pennsylvania for granted.

"I'm not sure I would buy that poll, at least I am not getting that sense in Erie County," Mengine said. "I am encouraged by it, but I was surprised by it as well."

But other candidates on the statewide ballot say they have never seen the Democratic Party as focused as it is this year, and they universally credit one man for doing it: President George Bush.

"There is a lot of excitement on the Democratic side. Frankly I think it is due to George Bush. He ran for president promising to be a uniter not a divider. He then promptly divided the country right down the middle and the electorate has never been so polarized," U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who is running for Senate this fall, said. "But he united one group and that's the Democratic Party. The Democratic base is fired up all across Pennsylvania."

Despite the bad news in the LA Times poll, Republicans say the state is not lost.

"Most polls have this race within 5 points and that is what we are seeing on the ground," Republican Executive Director Dan Hayward said Monday. "We are preparing the ground effort to win a close election this fall."

Madonna, and other analysts point out that the ongoing battle in Pennsylvania may be a Republican effort to focus Kerry and the Democrats on a state they won in 2000, rather than other states that went Republican in the last election.

"If [President Bush] makes Senator Kerry spend a huge amount of his resources here, then he is obviously accomplishing what he needs to do in terms of getting the senator to spend a good bit of his money on a state he has to have to win but Bush does not, so there is some political sense in doing that," Madonna said on the eve of the convention.

The Bush campaign dismisses this as a political strategy.

"We think we are going to win Pennsylvania because we are right on the issues and we have the grassroots organization," Madden said.

"We have put an emphasis on building this campaign from the ground up," Madden added, pointing out the campaign already had 40,000 volunteers throughout the state.

Whether the state continues to move into the Democratic column may be easier to see next month, after the Republicans take the spotlight during their convention in New York.

-- By Lee Banville, Online NewsHour

Political analysts Terry Madonna on the regional battlegrounds in Pennsylvania.

State Party Chairman Rooney on the Democrats' "Four Corner Strategy".

Congressman Joe Hoeffel on how the presidential race affects his Senate campaign.