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Wisconsin
delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Boston this
week know their state stands poised to be a deciding factor in
the 2004 presidential race, and are basking in the attention of
their party and the press.
 U.S.
Rep. Tammy Baldwin, whose district includes the state capital
Madison, delivered a primetime speech on health care Monday night,
and the Dairy State delegation's seating is closer to the podium
than electoral powerhouses New York or California.
Members
of the delegation have also been besieged by reporters seeking
information about John Kerry's chances of winning the state that
Al Gore captured by 0.22 percent in 2000.
State
party leaders said they hope the excitement and attention centered
on the state delegates will send them back into their communities
ready to do the grunt work needed to lock up the state's 10 electoral
votes.
"What
it will do for the delegates who are here from Wisconsin is really
energize them, educate them, so they can go back and be missionaries
for John Kerry and John Edwards," said Wisconsin Democratic
Party Chairwoman Linda Honold.
Gov.
Jim Doyle said energized local Democrats are an important part
of his party's national campaign strategy because Wisconsin is
a state that Kerry needs to win.
"In
the end I think the most important thing is that they will come
out of Boston very, very committed to making sure that they're
going to go back to Wisconsin and work hard to have John Kerry
carry the state, which is obviously crucial for his election,"
Doyle said.
Battleground
Wisconsin
Wisconsin's
importance to the presidential campaigns can be measured by the
money and attention both campaigns have lavished on the state.
President
Bush has visited Wisconsin four times since March. Kerry has made
two bus tour stops in the Badger State, and the campaign sent
Edwards there last week. Kerry is also scheduled to visit the
state shortly after the convention.
Both
campaigns have poured media money into the state, saturating TV
viewers with political ads. A recent study by the University of
Wisconsin found that the campaigns have spent $200 million to
air more than 100 political ads in swing states like Wisconsin.
"You'd
have to put Wisconsin in a group along with Ohio and Florida as
probably the closest of all the states," former University
of Wisconsin political science professor Don Kettl told the Online
NewsHour.
Wisconsin
has been divided on a razor's edge since well before the 2000
election when Al Gore carried the state with 47.8 percent of the
vote to George W. Bush's 47.6 percent. Gore won 5,700 more votes
out of nearly 2.5 million.
Though
Wisconsin has two Democratic U.S. senators, the two parties evenly
split the eight seats in the House of Representatives. Democrat
Jim Doyle resides in the governor's mansion, while Republicans
control the legislature.
An
American Research Group poll of likely voters, conducted July
13-15, found Kerry ahead with 48 percent to President Bush's 42
percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered 4 percent
in the poll, which had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Campaign
Issues
If
the candidates expect to gain ground in Wisconsin they have to
talk jobs and the economy, which are the top two issues for most
Wisconsin voters, according to political science Professor Don
Kettl.
 The
labor force in Wisconsin is about 28 percent "blue collar,"
and recent losses in the manufacturing sector have hit the state
hard.
Kettl
said John Edwards' success in the presidential primary campaign
could be traced to his theme of bridging the "two Americas"
-- one for the wealthy and well-connected and another for regular
citizens. The message resonated with Wisconsin voters and nearly
catapulted Edwards to victory over John Kerry.
The
Kerry ticket may now be able to capitalize on Edwards' popularity
and message, especially in and around Milwaukee and other areas
affected by manufacturing job losses, Kettl said.
Democratic
convention delegates in Boston agreed that the economy and jobs
are what Wisconsinites care about most.
"In
Wisconsin we've lost something like 80,000 manufacturing jobs
-- Wisconsin is a heavily industrialized state, a lot of manufacturing,"
said Bob Jome a Wisconsin delegate and retired math teacher from
Manitowoc. "In my own hometown a company closed up and moved
out 800 some good paying jobs."
In
the climate of worry over the job market, two major labor groups
have moved to the political forefront. Unions that represent manufacturing
workers as well as service workers, such as teachers, have a powerful
influence in the state. The unions have historically supported
Democratic candidates.
Steel
worker and AFL-CIO representative Keith Wilhelm said Kerry and
Edwards have the kind of agenda that give hope to struggling workers.
"To
tell you the truth, in the primary, I was an Edwards supporter,
had the right message for me -- jobs and the two Americas,"
Wilhelm said. "We need equal access to the American dream
for everyone."
Kettl
said the issue of union support for Democrats "plays directly
into the heart of a lot of ongoing running gun battles in state
politics as well that are going to have big implications for the
national campaign."
 Back
in Wisconsin, however, state GOP party Chairman Rick Graber refused
to concede the jobs and economy issue to the Democrats. Graber
said the job market in Wisconsin in rebounding and some "rank
and file" union members are likely to vote Republican.
"John
Kerry is ignoring the fact the economy in Wisconsin is improving,"
Graber said. "What we're seeing is the president's policy
of tax cuts is putting money in the hands of small businesses."
Though
jobs dominate the thinking of most of the delegates, analysts
say the war in Iraq may also be a deciding factor in the outcome
in Wisconsin.
Kettl
said there is growing uneasiness in communities across Wisconsin
about ongoing call-ups of Army Reserve and National Guard personnel.
Jome
said Kerry's proposals for "sensible and reasonable solutions"
to getting out of Iraq should resonate with Wisconsin voters.
Graber,
however, said most Wisconsin voters know the president's policies
have made the nation safer than before Sept. 11.
Neck
& Neck
As
the candidates and their operatives debate the issues, neither
party seems able to take a decisive lead in statewide polls, split
almost perfectly when it comes to control of Wisconsin's 72 counties.
"Virtually
all of the counties, especially those of any size, tend to go
either relatively strongly for Democrats or relatively strongly
for Republicans, and so what makes Wisconsin a swing state is
just how evenly balance those 'red' and 'blue' counties are,"
Kettl said. "One of the things that is difficult to try to
pin down is how large the margins are going to be for the Democrats
in their counties how large for the Republicans in theirs and
what kind of issues are going to move them since they're likely
going to be very different issues."
Wisconsin's
county-by-county stalemate leads Kettl to believe particular issues
will matter less than party activism and organization.
"While
Wisconsin is a swing state there is no one issue likely to drive
the state in one direction or another," Kettl said. "What
is far more important is which issues are going to mobilize which
people in which part of the state and how the totals add up."
In
order to eke out a victory in such a climate parties must work
to energize and turn out their own voters on election day as well
as try to reach a relatively large group of Wisconsin's potential
cross-over and independent voters, a group that could be as large
as a third of the electorate.
Wisconsin
Gov. Jim Doyle said opposition to the president has solidified
Democratic support for Kerry.
"The
people will say it and the polls show it, the Democratic Party
hasn't been this united in anybody's memory," Doyle said.
Honold
said the president and his policies have in fact done much of
the groundwork for the Democrats.
"Quite
frankly George Bush has done a great job of energizing our base,"
Honold said. "I go around the state to little counties, like
Oneida County, Wisconsin, which is a very far northern county.
One hundred people are showing up at Democratic Party meetings.
We've never had that kind of turnout, and it's happening all over
the state."
The
GOP's Graber agrees that firing up the faithful and getting out
the vote will be the key to victory, in spite of the gigantic
media effort underway in the state.
"No
longer can you just have TV ads and radio ads, you have to have
people power," Graber said.
Unlike
Honold, Graber believes political and electoral trends in Wisconsin
favor the GOP.
"We
have the largest majority in the state assembly in the last 50
years," Graber said, adding that Republicans have made in-roads
in traditionally Democratic areas like Milwaukee County, which
recently elected a Republican county executive.
The
test of the two parties' theories comes in November, when the
narrowly divided electorate heads to the polls.
--
By Jason Manning, Online NewsHour
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