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Posted:
September 24, 2004
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In the 2004 presidential election, Missouri appears to be living
up to its legacy as a national battleground state and political
hotbed, where elections are tightly contested and neither Republicans
nor Democrats ever seem to maintain the upper hand.
Born amid one of the nation's earliest and bloodiest political battles,
the Show Me State has been plagued by discord for much of its 183-year
existence. From its beginnings, divisions based on geography, economics
and race have created a state that is not quite Republican, not
quite Democrat, and has shifted often in its political preference.
A Bellwether State, with Republican Tendencies
Despite its political pendulum tendencies, Missouri has been consistently
recognized as a bellwether state. In fact, Missouri voters have
correctly selected every U.S. president in the 20th century except
one (backing Adlai Stevenson instead of Dwight Eisenhower in 1956).
Even the state's voting results in 2000 mirrored the national electorate,
with 50 percent for George W. Bush and 47 percent for Al Gore. Given
this track record, many political pundits consider Missouri a "microcosm
of America."
 Within
the state itself, political seats are relatively evenly divided
between Democrats, who largely enjoy their strongest support in
urban areas, and Republicans, who receive their greatest backing
from rural areas and suburbs.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Bob Holden in 2000 eked out a victory with
little more than 21,000 votes against Republican Jim Talent -- who
two years later won the Senate race against Democratic incumbent
Sen. Jean Carnahan by an equally slim margin. In 1996, Missourians
also elected another Democrat, Mel Carnahan, as their governor --
this time by a wider lead against his Republican competitor.
On the federal level, the state's senators are also Republican:
Sen. Christopher Bond, who is battling to keep his seat this year,
and Talent, elected in 2002. Representatives for the state's nine
congressional districts are split with five Republicans and four
Democrats. Yet, this slight majority suggests a gradual predilection
for the GOP -- for this year at least.
The Missouri Senate has been predominantly Republican since 1998,
and the House gained a Republican majority after the 2002 election
for the first time since 1954. Several political reporters and analysts
attribute the Republicans' recent ascendancy to a rise of conservative
social values.
David Webber, associate professor of political science from the
University of Missouri in Columbia, explained the slight shift in
voters' attitudes: "Missouri was always a conservative Democrat
state -- but it's gradually become more Republican in recent years
-- in the last 10 years. I attribute that to guns, abortion, and
I think state Republicans have been better organized than state
Democrats."
Foundations of a Battleground State
Today's political debates are tame compared to those that helped
form the state in the 19th century. The United States acquired Missouri
from France as part of the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, but the question
of whether to admit the pro-slavery territory into the union played
into the highly charged national debate between slavery supporters
in the South and abolitionists in the North. In 1820, legislators
finally agreed to the Missouri Compromise that recognized Missouri
as the 24th state and established Maine as a new, slave-free state
to maintain the precarious North-South balance.
Yet, the state's struggle with slavery did not end with its formal
admission to the union in 1821. The infamous 1857 Dredd Scott case
-- in which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled an African-American man
was the property of his white "owner" regardless of whether
he lived in a slave-holding or free state -- originated in Missouri.
When North-South tensions ultimately erupted into the Civil War,
Missouri became one of the war's frontlines. Despite its pro-slavery
laws, Missouri did not secede from the union to join the Confederacy
like many southern states in 1861.
Throughout the tense pre-Civil War period and during the war itself,
Missourians were sharply divided in their opinions about slavery
and in their allegiances, aiding both Union and Confederate forces
with troops and supplies.
For most of the 20th century, Missouri's Civil War political divisions
persisted: Ancestral southerners in the north typically voted Democratic,
pro-Union descendents in the southwest voted Republican, and the
southeast was split between parties.
The geopolitical divide in the 21st century
Today, Missouri ranks as the 17th most populous state with most
of the growth occurring in and around St. Louis, Kansas City and
Springfield. The state's dwindling population received a boost in
the 1990s from an economic improvement in the trade, manufacturing
and service industries.
Missouri's racial makeup remains predominantly Caucasian, comprising
84 percent of the state's population. African Americans make up
roughly 11 percent and largely vote Democratic, Webber noted. The
state has also seen a growing Latino population, though their voting
patterns are not known, Webber said.
More important than racial or even socioeconomic demographics to
voting trends is the state's geography, political scientists say.
Veteran political correspondent Jo Mannies of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch
sums it up as the "rural-urban" divide.
While rural areas were hugely influential in deciding Missouri elections
during the 20th century, metropolitan areas and the burgeoning outer
suburbs had the biggest impact on elections since then -- and will
likely determine the winners in 2004, Webber told the Online NewsHour.
The remaining rural voters -- largely Republicans -- "will
have less impact on the outcome of the gubernatorial race,"
he said.
Twenty years ago, many farm areas traditionally voted for conservative
Democrats, but now tend to vote Republican, Mannies told the Online
NewsHour. Only one Democrat, Ike Skelton, represents a district
in the Ozarks that is predominantly rural.
 Republican
strongholds are found in the quickly growing Southwest region and
most outer suburbs -- notably St. Charles County, the state's largest
growing district located outside St. Louis City, and Greene County,
outside of Springfield, Mannies said.
Meanwhile, Democrats continue to maintain their ground within the
cities, such as St. Louis and Kansas City. But, Mannies noted, the
immediate counties around these cities -- St. Louis County and Jackson
County, respectively -- represent some of the largest voting blocs
in the state and do not adhere to either party.
--
Compiled
for the Online NewsHour by Liz
Harper |
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