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State Profile
Posted: September 20, 2004
The battle for John Edwards' North Carolina Senate seat is being waged by Democrat Erskine Bowles, the millionaire and former Clinton White House chief of staff and failed 2002 Senate candidate, and Richard Burr, a Republican congressman from Winston-Salem with little statewide name recognition.

The race in the politically conservative state is considered by many to be one of the nation's closest, not just because of the candidates involved but because of the close presidential race and the presence of Edwards in the campaign.

Over the last 30 years, beginning with former Sen. Jesse Helms in 1972, presidential election years have been a boon for North Carolina's Republican Senate candidates, according to Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Jesse Helms"Helms won with momentum from the (Richard) Nixon landslide," Guillory said. "John East wins in 1980 … made that big gain with the (former President) Reagan victory. And in 1984 Helms beats Jim Hunt in this mammoth Senate election and he beats him because Reagan is beating (Walter) Mondale in this landslide."

The presidential race and the issues shaping it could also mean North Carolina voters may be affected by the echoes of the race for the White House.

"This is a very competitive year," said Thad Beyle publisher of North Carolina DataNet, a UNC publication that tracks political statistics and trends for the state. "That tells you something about this senate race. There's a presidential race above it and the governor's race below it. You don't know how many people are going to vote straight ticket."

In addition to the political implications of the presidential contest, political observers see national issues -- such as homeland security, health care and Iraq -- as well as more locally focused issues like jobs and trade thanks to the slow but steady loss of jobs in a state famous for its textile, furniture and tobacco industries as controlling the debate.

"In the Senate race, major national issues will predominate -- the war in Iraq, the war on terrorism," Burr supporter and Republican state Rep. David Miner told the Washington Post. "Burr will not let Bowles escape his Washington experience," which, according to Miner, includes the Clinton administration's failure to get tough on terrorism and capture Osama bin Laden.

Polls conducted in mid-August showed Bowles leading Burr by several percentage points but that lead could weaken once Burr, fighting to overcome Bowles' name recognition advantage, builds his own image in biographical ads aimed at introducing his platform to voters.

And Burr may have history on his side. North Carolina is considered a Republican state when it comes to presidential elections though it has not always been so. As a result of the Civil Rights Movement of the 1950s and '60s, many white Southerners, North Carolinians included, shifted away from the Democratic Party because of its support of the movement. North Carolina voters have remained GOP faithfuls.

But, in the current election more and more analysts have begun to consider the state, if not a "swing" state, then one that's "in-play" because of Edwards' nomination.

Democrat Bill Clinton lost the state by only 1 percent in the 1992 presidential election and by only 5 percentage points in 1996. In 2000, George H.W. Bush beat then-Vice President Al Gore by 13 percentage points, a high margin by North Carolina standards.

At the gubernatorial and Senate levels, Democrat Mike Easley, who succeeded former four-term governor Jim Hunt, beat his Republican rival Richard Vinroot by 6 points (52 percent to 46 percent) in 1996.

In 1998, Edwards won his seat against Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth by 4 points (51 percent to 47 percent). And in the 2002 Senate race, Elizabeth Dole beat Bowles by only 11 points.

Also working in Burr's favor is North Carolina's racial demographic. The state's mostly white population (72 percent) voted largely for George Bush in 2000. The black vote is not expected to be a key factor. North Carolina's 1.7 million African Americans, who make up 21.4 percent of the population, voted overwhelmingly for Al Gore in 2000 and can be expected to vote Democratic again.

The Hispanic vote also will likely not be a factor for North Carolina's state races. Though the state boasts the largest migration of Hispanics in the country over the last 10 years, the number of registered mostly Mexican Hispanic voters is low, according to Census data, and will likely not have a large affect on the outcome of the race.

"Bush, like Nixon before him and Reagan before him, got the vote, particularly from white men, based on their cultural stance -- guns, religion and so on," Guillory said. "So that people in small towns, in rural areas, were voting Republican based on cultural affinity. Now the question is has this economic transition loosened the cultural bond and turned the election more to economic issues."

University of North CarolinaBut, the recent movement of high tech jobs to the state's Research Triangle Park between Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill has not only brought in more jobs, but brought in highly educated tech workers and middle class voters who tend to vote Democrat, helping to combat the Republican's demographic dominance, according to the Almanac of American Politics.

And, after several years of switching between a Democratic and Republican majority, the North Carolina House is currently evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.

On the issues, both candidates realize jobs and trade are what voters care about. Once a national leader in textile production and tobacco, the state has seen major declines in the number of manufacturing and furniture jobs, and many workers have lost low-wage factory jobs to outsourcing and movement of jobs to other states.

"The manufacturing side with textiles and furniture has been hurt very badly, especially in the rural areas," Beyle said. "The real question will be who can save jobs and create jobs."

Guillory agrees.

"What the candidates are really fighting over is who in the voters' minds would go up to Washington as the strongest advocate for the North Carolina people, North Carolina's communities and North Carolina businesses. Who's more likely to be the jobs senator?"

-- Compiled for the Online NewsHour by Kristina Nwazota
Key Race

Main: North Carolina Senate Race

Richard Burr (R)

Erskine Bowles (D)

North Carolina State Profile
Campaign Information

Erskine Bowles for U.S. Senate

Richard Burr for U.S. Senate
Reports From North Carolina
Election 2004
North Carolinians will go to the polls this year to choose a new senator and governor, and in our continuing commitment to help inform North Carolina voters UNC-TV presents information about the senatorial candidates. In addition to the usual issues of education, environment, transportation, and population growth, 2004 brings new challenges as we face terrorism and a failing economy.
-- UNC-TV
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