| The
battle for John Edwards' North Carolina Senate seat is being waged
by Democrat Erskine Bowles, the millionaire and former Clinton White
House chief of staff and failed 2002 Senate candidate, and Richard
Burr, a Republican congressman from Winston-Salem with little statewide
name recognition.
The race in
the politically conservative state is considered by many to be
one of the nation's closest, not just because of the candidates
involved but because of the close presidential race and the presence
of Edwards in the campaign.
Over the last
30 years, beginning with former Sen. Jesse Helms in 1972, presidential
election years have been a boon for North Carolina's Republican
Senate candidates, according to Ferrel Guillory, director of the
Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
"Helms
won with momentum from the (Richard) Nixon landslide," Guillory
said. "John East wins in 1980
made that big gain with
the (former President) Reagan victory. And in 1984 Helms beats
Jim Hunt in this mammoth Senate election and he beats him because
Reagan is beating (Walter) Mondale in this landslide."
The presidential
race and the issues shaping it could also mean North Carolina
voters may be affected by the echoes of the race for the White
House.
"This
is a very competitive year," said Thad Beyle publisher of
North Carolina DataNet, a UNC publication that tracks political
statistics and trends for the state. "That tells you something
about this senate race. There's a presidential race above it and
the governor's race below it. You don't know how many people are
going to vote straight ticket."
In addition
to the political implications of the presidential contest, political
observers see national issues -- such as homeland security, health
care and Iraq -- as well as more locally focused issues like jobs
and trade thanks to the slow but steady loss of jobs in a state
famous for its textile, furniture and tobacco industries as controlling
the debate.
"In the
Senate race, major national issues will predominate -- the war
in Iraq, the war on terrorism," Burr supporter and Republican
state Rep. David Miner told the Washington Post. "Burr will
not let Bowles escape his Washington experience," which,
according to Miner, includes the Clinton administration's failure
to get tough on terrorism and capture Osama bin Laden.
Polls conducted
in mid-August showed Bowles leading Burr by several percentage
points but that lead could weaken once Burr, fighting to overcome
Bowles' name recognition advantage, builds his own image in biographical
ads aimed at introducing his platform to voters.
And Burr may
have history on his side. North Carolina is considered a Republican
state when it comes to presidential elections though it has not
always been so. As a result of the Civil Rights Movement of the
1950s and '60s, many white Southerners, North Carolinians included,
shifted away from the Democratic Party because of its support
of the movement. North Carolina voters have remained GOP faithfuls.
But, in the
current election more and more analysts have begun to consider
the state, if not a "swing" state, then one that's "in-play"
because of Edwards' nomination.
Democrat Bill
Clinton lost the state by only 1 percent in the 1992 presidential
election and by only 5 percentage points in 1996. In 2000, George
H.W. Bush beat then-Vice President Al Gore by 13 percentage points,
a high margin by North Carolina standards.
At the gubernatorial
and Senate levels, Democrat Mike Easley, who succeeded former
four-term governor Jim Hunt, beat his Republican rival Richard
Vinroot by 6 points (52 percent to 46 percent) in 1996.
In 1998, Edwards
won his seat against Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth by 4 points
(51 percent to 47 percent). And in the 2002 Senate race, Elizabeth
Dole beat Bowles by only 11 points.
Also working
in Burr's favor is North Carolina's racial demographic. The state's
mostly white population (72 percent) voted largely for George
Bush in 2000. The black vote is not expected to be a key factor.
North Carolina's 1.7 million African Americans, who make up 21.4
percent of the population, voted overwhelmingly for Al Gore in
2000 and can be expected to vote Democratic again.
The Hispanic
vote also will likely not be a factor for North Carolina's state
races. Though the state boasts the largest migration of Hispanics
in the country over the last 10 years, the number of registered
mostly Mexican Hispanic voters is low, according to Census data,
and will likely not have a large affect on the outcome of the
race.
"Bush,
like Nixon before him and Reagan before him, got the vote, particularly
from white men, based on their cultural stance -- guns, religion
and so on," Guillory said. "So that people in small
towns, in rural areas, were voting Republican based on cultural
affinity. Now the question is has this economic transition loosened
the cultural bond and turned the election more to economic issues."
But,
the recent movement of high tech jobs to the state's Research
Triangle Park between Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill has not
only brought in more jobs, but brought in highly educated tech
workers and middle class voters who tend to vote Democrat, helping
to combat the Republican's demographic dominance, according to
the Almanac of American Politics.
And, after
several years of switching between a Democratic and Republican
majority, the North Carolina House is currently evenly divided
between Republicans and Democrats.
On the issues,
both candidates realize jobs and trade are what voters care about.
Once a national leader in textile production and tobacco, the
state has seen major declines in the number of manufacturing and
furniture jobs, and many workers have lost low-wage factory jobs
to outsourcing and movement of jobs to other states.
"The
manufacturing side with textiles and furniture has been hurt very
badly, especially in the rural areas," Beyle said. "The
real question will be who can save jobs and create jobs."
Guillory agrees.
"What
the candidates are really fighting over is who in the voters'
minds would go up to Washington as the strongest advocate for
the North Carolina people, North Carolina's communities and North
Carolina businesses. Who's more likely to be the jobs senator?"
--
Compiled
for the Online NewsHour by Kristina
Nwazota |