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South Carolinians, traditionally conservative voters with a historical
tendency to look inward, the election in November will be less about
national issues such as the war in Iraq and the war on terror and
more about local issues like taxes, trade and jobs.
Throughout
the 20th century South Carolina's economy was heavily dependent
on manufacturing, particularly the textile industry. Starting
in the 1970s the state started to attract a diversity of new industry
with a good business climate that included the lowest rate of
unionization, low taxes and willingness to meet employers' needs.
By the 1990s
South Carolina had secured an economic and social role in the
bustling South Atlantic region, with many newcomers, mostly white,
moving to the region to retire and work in its vibrant economy.
Despite
this surge in new business, the traditional pillars of the state
economy continue to be buffeted. Since 2001 South Carolina has
lost an estimated 70,000 jobs, many in the declining textile industry.
There is a growing debate about how the outsourcing of jobs is
impacting the state's economy.
"In a
state that's lost a lot of jobs, it's something that people will
listen to," Scott Huffmon, a political science professor
at Winthrop University, told the Greenville News. "The average
American citizen is not well versed on the international economy,
but understands when his job or his neighbor's goes to another
country."
On the national
level, South Carolinians appear solidly behind President Bush,
who won the state 57 percent to 41 percent in 2000. This is not
surprising for a state that since 1968 has only voted once, narrowly,
for a Democratic presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter, in 1976.
Democrats have won no more than 44 percent of the vote in the
last three presidential elections.
South Carolinians
tend to vote along racial lines. In a state with 4 million people,
according to the 2000 census, 30 percent are black, 2 percent
are Hispanic and the majority are white. In 2000, whites voted
69 percent to 29 percent for George W. Bush while blacks voted
91 percent to 7 percent for Al Gore.
In the 1940s,
black South Carolinians made up a near majority in the state.
But with a low number of immigrants and a growing number of white
newcomers settling in the coastal resort areas around Hilton Head
and Myrtle Beach and suburban areas near Columbia and south of
Charlotte, N.C., their numbers are dropping and the state is moving
even more solidly into the Republican camp.
The Christian
Coalition is also increasing its presence in South Carolina politics.
A majority of the state's 88-member delegation to the Republican
National Convention in New York City this year was from the conservative
religious group. Several are in leadership positions.
"What
you have is a group of voters who have finally achieved a prominent
place in the party and now have a voice in the decision-making
elements of the party," Jim Guth, a Furman University political
scientist and nationally recognized scholar on the Christian Right
movement, told the State.com in September.
In state elections
Democrats have had more success and cannot be completely discounted.
In 1998 Democrat
Jim Hodges defeated incumbent Gov. David Beasley 53 percent to
45 percent. Analysts say Beasley lost due to his changing position
on the Confederate battle flag and his opposition to video poker.
Beasley favored the controversial flag's removal.
The
Confederate battle flag is still a disputed issue in the state
where the Civil War began. The flag, which had flown over the
state Capitol since 1962, was moved to a 30-foot pole on Capitol
grounds after a May 2000 state legislature vote. The NAACP, which
had organized a boycott of the state, was not appeased. Though
in January 2003 the president of the state NAACP said the group
would not politically penalize Democratic candidates campaigning
there for the February 2004 presidential primary.
1998 also
saw the reelection of Democrat Ernest "Fritz" Hollings
to a sixth full term by a 53 percent to 46 percent vote over Rep.
Bob Inglis. The now retiring-senator's seat is up for grabs in
November with popular twice-elected Democrat State Superintendent
of Schools Inez Tenenbaum facing three-term Republican Rep. Jim
DeMint of the 4th District.
According
to political observers, to appeal to South Carolina's conservative
voters and win, Tenenbaum will have to balance her projected position
as an independent, moderate Democrat, who is, at the same time,
accepting a lot of money from Democrats, including the Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"She's
going to speak for South Carolina, not the national Democratic
Party, not for any specific national group. That's what Strom
Thurmond did, what Fritz Hollings did, and that's what (GOP Sen.)
Lindsey Graham is doing, " former Democratic Party chairman
Dick Harpootlian told the Greenville News in August.
Tenenbaum
faces an uphill battle as the state went solidly Republican across
the board in 2002.
Former Rep.
Mark Sanford narrowly defeated incumbent Gov. Jim Hodges 53 percent
to 47 percent. Rep. Lindsey Graham, famous for his lead role in
the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, defeated Democrat
Alex Sanders 54 percent to 44 percent to replace South Carolina's
most famous senator, Strom Thurmond, whose eighth term expired
in January 2003.
-- Compiled
for the Online NewsHour by Annie
Schleicher
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