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A common misconception about
the primary election process is that votes are cast directly for candidates. In
reality, they are cast in favor of delegates who will represent the candidates
at the national conventions where they vote to select the party's presidential
nominee.
The primary
process was born from the desire of national and state parties
to generate voter participation and grassroots mobilization. Traditionally,
delegates who chose the presidential candidates were themselves
chosen by caucus -- more informal town hall meetings.
Primary
elections were first held in a limited number of states in 1912,
but did not really take hold until the latter half of the century.
Reforms during the 1968 and 1972 Democratic national conventions
encouraged the proliferation of primaries, and by the 2004 elections
over 40 states will be holding primaries.
Party delegates
are allocated to each state according to population size. Since
the population is always shifting, so is the number of delegates
assigned to particular states. The Democratic National Convention
plans on having 4,317 total delegate votes for the 2004 primary.
The Republican National Convention will include 2,512 delegate
votes.
In
the Democratic primaries, delegates are won on a state-by-state basis and are
awarded proportionally by the number of votes the candidates receive. For example,
if a state has 50 delegates and Candidate X gets 60 percent of the votes in that
state primary, then Candidate X will receive 30 delegates. While
some Republican state parties also use this form of proportional representation,
others use a winner-take-all approach, or some combination of the two methods.
This election
cycle, the Republican primaries are expected to be a formality,
leading to the nomination of President Bush for reelection at
the party convention in late August 2004. The last incumbent to
compete in his party's primaries -- President Clinton in 1996
-- also ran unopposed and captured every delegate.
In
the 1980 primaries, President Carter faced a determined rival in Sen. Ted Kennedy
of Massachusetts, but went on to beat him by a 2-1 margin. In fact, the only sitting
president to ever lose his party's nomination race was Franklin Pierce in 1856.
A key aspect
of the primary system is that the elections are not held on the
same day (like the general election) but are staggered over a
period of months, from January to June. As the convention date
approaches, the public generally gravitates toward the front-runners
who have proven to be strong candidates. Usually, once the nomination
is out of reach, opponents will drop out rather than waste money
or political capital on a lost cause.
One
result of this staggered schedule is that states with early primaries are extremely
important to the candidates. A politician who does well early on is seen as a
sure bet to supporters and potential campaign donors, while those who do not do
as well will typically see their support wither and their funds evaporate. New
Hampshire and Iowa use this to their advantage. New Hampshire law dictates the
primary must be held a week before any other primary, and Iowa law states the
Iowa caucus must be held eight days before the New Hampshire primary. First-in-the-nation
status carries benefits. "It
means more pork spending," said Andy Smith, director of the University of
New Hampshire Survey Center. "New Hampshire is ranked 8th in the country
in earmarked spending. There are a lot of politicians in the House and Senate
with presidential aspirations who want to make friends with New Hampshire." In
a bid to counteract the disproportional influence of northern New Hampshire and
Iowa, several Southern states banded together in 1988 to hold their primaries
on the second Tuesday in March. This date came to be known as "Super Tuesday."
Other states
eventually caught on to the Super Tuesday strategy, scheduling their primaries
in groups. In some election years, this creates several Super Tuesdays. Due to
the sheer number of delegates, these key primary dates have earned the reputation
of making or breaking a candidate. In
the 2000 election, former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley conceded the Democratic
nomination to former Vice President Al Gore shortly after a crushing 16-state
defeat on Super Tuesday. Arizona Sen. John McCain fared only slightly better,
managing to win a few northern states but losing the delegate-rich California,
New York and Ohio in one blow to future President Bush. This
"front loading" -- the phenomenon of states holding their primaries
in large groupings so early in the year -- has been criticized heavily as undermining
the purpose of the primaries. Some
argue that because front loading dramatically shortens the primary election calendar,
it restricts candidates from spending much time on campaigning and instead emphasizes
big money fund raising and media blitzes. "Candidates
aren't going to have a chance to effectively campaign," said Smith. "They
make a cursory, shallow visit to the state. It's a television-tarmac campaign
where they fly into the airport and then leave." The
current 2004 primary calendar indicates there will be several Super Tuesdays --
this time starting in February, in addition to the customary first and second
Tuesdays in March.
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By Chris Nammour, Online NewsHour
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