Some 70 miles west of the nation's capital, Rappahannock County, Va., lies nestled at the base of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This sparsely populated area has largely avoided the spreading suburbs that stretch into neighboring counties and with one of the more active Democratic parties in the area, it has also somewhat avoided the shifting politics of Old Dominion.

Virginia's political landscape has decidedly marched from the Democratic to the Republican over the last 50 years, part of larger trends that have been shaping the rest of the region.

"It used to be a part of the solid Democratic south, but it is now one of the most reliably Republican states in the country," said Mark Rozell, a political science professor at Catholic University. "It's the only Southern state that did not vote for Jimmy Carter. I don't think it has voted for any Democrat since [Lyndon Johnson], and before that you have to go back to [Harry] Truman."

According to Rozell, the traditionally conservative Virginians began to shift allegiances when they felt the Democratic Party was becoming too liberal for their taste.

For much of the 20th century, "the Byrd organization" -- a political machine led by conservative Democrat Sen. Harry Byrd -- dominated Virginia politics on both the local and state level. Under Byrd's leadership, likeminded Democrats virtually shut out Republicans as well as dissidents from within their own party. The party's hegemony was so complete that primaries became the real determining factor in choosing a candidate -- it was a forgone conclusion as to which party would win most general elections.

But as the civil rights era transformed the national Democratic Party, Virginia Democrats also went through some changes of their own.

"Virginia voters started increasingly to feel dissatisfied as the national Democratic Party moved to the left," Rozell said. "McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis in particular."

Virginia's increasingly successful economy also had an impact.

"Like a lot of the South, parts of Virginia became quite affluent, very suburban," Rozell said, "which means more Republican."

As national party leaders and Democratic presidential nominees felt out of step with the ideals of Virginia voters, Virginia stopped voting for Democrats for president.

But the shift did not end there. As Republicans started to consistently chalk-up Virginia's votes for president into their column, other elected offices, from the U.S. Congress to the Virginia House of Delegates began to fall into Republican hands.

"It's a sort of trickle down Republicanism," Rozell said. "It started first at the presidential level, then at the statewide level with gubernatorial and Senate races. Then local representatives and state senators and legislators and House delegates. It was a slow, steady march to majority."

By the 1990s, the Republicans had a solid grip on Virginia politics.

But unlike the Byrd era, Virginia is not a one-party state. Its current governor, Mark Warner, is a Democrat. And during the 1996 presidential election, Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton came within 3 percentage points of Republican challenger Bob Dole.

This election cycle will be the first Democratic primary in the state since 1988 and the earliest primary in Virginia history. This means it will play a much more influential role in choosing the party nominee than ever before.

So far, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., has won ten of 12 primaries and caucuses. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., and retired Gen. Wesley Clark have won one each. Edwards and Clark, both Southerners -- Edwards is from South Carolina and Clark is from Arkansas, have been spending time campaigning in Southern states.

"Virginia does matter," Rozell said. "It's a chance for Edwards to make another credible showing and enhance his regional appeal. Although it would be more significant if Edwards had won more than one state on [Feb. 3]."

But Rozell believes that Edwards' Southern strategy will not necessarily guarantee him victory in the commonwealth.

Beyond the national and state level, the primary is also taking place on a local scale.

Back in Rappahannock, the county has seen the same trend. A small county of some 7,000 residents, the region has had a decidedly Republican bent. But Democrats, fueled by local concerns and politics have built a small, but strong following.

The county, with an economy based on agriculture and tourism, is largely made up of towns that are only a few blocks.

"It's very small town, middle-American," said county administrator John McCarthy. "This is just a place where the folks want it to be for their kids what is was for their parents. We have more cows than we have people."

It is a unique place, with no chain stores, no stoplights and no fast food joints -- and the residents like it that way.

"No one on the local level is going to run a 'let's develop Rappahannock' campaign," McCarthy said. "Republicans and Democrats alike have to incorporate that into their platform."

It is also home to the Inn at Little Washington, a popular hotel and restaurant for the Washington, D.C., elite. A number of wealthy Washingtonians and Virginians maintain homes in Rappahannock, including Attorney General John Ashcroft. As a part of the collective effort to curb development and conserve the character of the county, there is a 25-acre minimum on all residential property being built -- unthinkable in the nearby counties of Fairfax or Loudon where building continues unabated.

Besides development, McCarthy feels that Rappahannock residents have many of the same political concerns as most small towns.

"We have the same local concerns that people have from Tucson to Tuscaloosa," McCarthy said. "We care about education. We care about affordable health care. We care about law enforcement and trash collection and social services."

Although the county is too small to attract the candidates, it is in small towns like Little Washington and Sperryville, as well as the cities of Richmond and Norfolk, where the Feb. 10 primary will play out and a candidate's dream of the White House will become a bit closer to reality.

-- By Chris Nammour, Online NewsHour