Voter Turnout Seen as the Key to the Keystone State

As polls in Pennsylvania continue to show President Bush and his Democratic rival Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts in a dead heat, the state's Democratic and Republican parties are working overtime to get out the vote.

"We are prepared to win a close election," said Dan Hayward, executive director of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, in an interview just prior to the Republican National Convention. "It's a turnout game."

Hayward said his party has focused on getting voters registered and sending out volunteers "earlier than ever before" to spread a positive message about President Bush's record in office. The volunteer effort started months ago rather than the usual convention kickoff, he added.

The state GOP party learned from 2000, when then-Vice President Al Gore won Pennsylvania with 51 percent of the vote versus George W. Bush's 46 percent, that it needs to improve voter turnout in all regions of the state this time around, said Hayward.

A Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll released Aug. 26 had Kerry slightly ahead among registered voters surveyed with 45 percent compared to the president's 43 percent. Among likely voters, though, President Bush held a slim lead with 45 percent to Kerry's 44 percent.

The major cities of Philadelphia in the east and Pittsburgh in the west tend to vote Democratic, but even in the northern and central portions of the state -- a region Hayward referred to as the "Republican T-zone" -- the party is working to boost turnout.

GOP campaigning grassroots-style
Delegate Joyce Haas, co-chairwoman of the Central Caucus of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, said this campaign has differed from ones she assisted in the past. Not only has the effort to reach voters started earlier, but the state Republican Party has been emphasizing grassroots efforts over large fundraisers, she said.

"It's not a splashy, noticeable effort. It's not standing on street corners and flagging people down," she explained.

Instead, volunteers are calling their neighbors and touting President Bush's record, said Haas. The initial phone calls are followed up on Election Day to remind those in Mr. Bush's camp to cast their vote, she added.

Party members also are holding neighborhood parties to educate undecided voters on why they should support the president and to motivate those who already back him to bring others on board, said Haas.

"There are 400,000 plus more Democrats registered in Pennsylvania than Republicans," she said. "So we're working on registering voters and making sure that those registered go vote. … The only way we can win Pennsylvania is to get our Republican forces out."

Alternate delegate Adam Ballek of Hellertown, Pa., said he also has been taking a personal approach, talking to his friends and engaging people in debates at parties to try to convince them to vote for Mr. Bush.

The 21-year-old said younger people are often more receptive to hearing about the GOP platform from other youths.

"You'd be surprised at how receptive people are to talking about the election," he said. "People think a lot of people are set in their ways, but a large number are undecided."

The main issues on people's minds are the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq, said Ballek. The terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 brought the war on terrorism into the United States, he said, and "the president has done a good job in bringing that battle elsewhere."

The economy is another issue that looms large, and indicators, including job growth numbers, show the economy is recovering, said Ballek.

"We're going to show this president is the right guy for the job," he said.

Democratic perspective
But according to State Rep. T.J. Rooney, chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, the Republicans face an uphill battle trying to move the state into the president's column on Nov. 2. Rooney said Pennsylvanians are rallying around Kerry and his running mate Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., as they deliver their "vision to change America."

When Kerry and Edwards have made campaign stops in the Keystone State, they've drawn audiences of thousands more than anticipated, Rooney said. "The campaign picked up 3,500 new volunteers as a result of [Kerry's] appearances."

Rooney said Kerry has unique strengths in Pennsylvania, including his wife Teresa Heinz Kerry's philanthropic endeavors specifically in the western part of the state and his own war record and hunting interests that "play very well here."

With 21 electoral votes up for grabs, both candidates have been aggressively courting Pennsylvania voters in frequent campaign stops. Their campaigns and other political groups are filling the airways of Pennsylvania and other battleground states with commercials.

Kerry chose Pennsylvania as the setting to announce his selection of Edwards as his running mate, and President Bush has visited the swing state more than 30 times -- more than any other state except his homeland of Texas.

Hayward said President Bush has chosen a positive message emphasizing his administration's accomplishments over the last four years, while Kerry has focused on attacking the president.

Not so, said Rooney, referencing the Swift boat veterans ads from a private group that challenged Kerry's Vietnam War record. President Bush has distanced himself from the ads, but has not denounced them.

"If they think they're running a positive and policy-oriented campaign, then I've got a bridge to sell them somewhere else," he said.

The state's key concerns, according to Hayward, are jobs and the economy, and the security of the nation, and voters will look at -- and approve of -- the president's track record in these two areas.

In the war on terror, Hayward said, Pennsylvanians approved of President Bush's pick of their former governor, Tom Ridge, as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

"[Ridge] came from Pennsylvania. A lot of people viewed that as a right move, and there hasn't been an attack on this country since," Hayward said.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon -- along with the crash of hijacked United Airlines Flight 93 into a field in Shanksville, Pa. as the airliner headed toward Washington, D.C. -- had a "devastating" impact on the economy, the Republican official said.

Since then, the economic confidence among Pennsylvania voters has been growing, and President Bush has had a hand in that, Hayward said. The number of jobs has increased steadily, particularly in the manufacturing sector where 37,000 jobs have been added in Pennsylvania alone, he said.

Rooney, however, said voters are disenfranchised with the Bush administration in several policy areas important in the state.

Pennsylvania has the second largest aging population other than Florida, he said, and "there's this ruse of a prescription drug program."

In June, Medicare beneficiaries were able to begin using drug discount cards that the Department of Health and Human Services estimated would provide savings of about 10 percent to 15 percent on total drug costs, and up to 25 percent or more on individual prescriptions. Critics have called the system complicated and of little use. The government has been sending representatives to senior centers to explain the new program.

Rooney also said the president's position on steel tariffs has been damaging to the state's steel industry.

In December, President Bush repealed tariffs on foreign steel imposed in March 2002 after the European Union warned it would slap $2.2 billion in sanctions on American products, and Japan and South Korea also threatened retaliation. The president said the tariffs had served their purpose, giving U.S. steel makers the time needed to modernize and better compete against foreign competitors.

As for education policy, President Bush's No Child Left Behind Act "was a good idea, but he left the checkbook behind," Rooney said, and states were unable to fund the reforms.

In general, the Bush presidency is a failed one, and Kerry and Edwards would be a welcome change, the Democratic official said.

-- By Larisa Epatko, Online NewsHour