Wisconsin GOP Works to Avoid Another Near Miss

Wisconsin’s delegates to the Republican National Convention in New York know exactly how close they came to delivering the state for Pres. George W. Bush in 2000 – “5,708 votes.”

Al Gore won Wisconsin with 5,708 votes of the 2.5 million cast, beating Gov. George W. Bush by less than 1 percentage point.

The number has become a mantra for Wisconsin Republicans who say that, although the race will be close once again, they are determined to win in 2004.

“Wisconsin is gonna go for the president,” said Sheboygan County GOP Chairman Drew MacEwen. “We lost in 2000 by 5,708 votes, that’s less than one vote per precinct.”

A small number of voters will likely again make the difference in the Dairy State where the electorate, according to recent polling, remains divided on a razor’s edge.

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of “likely voters” in Wisconsin conducted Aug. 23–26 shows President Bush with a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., 50 percent to 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error, however, is +/- 5 percentage points, meaning the race is a statistical tie.

With wildcard, independent candidate Ralph Nader thrown into the mix, the president edges Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent, a lead that still lies within the margin of error.

Polls in July showed Kerry with a slight lead.

Wisconsin’s current roster of elected officials reflects the almost evenly divided electorate. Wisconsin has two Democratic U.S. senators, but the two parties evenly split the eight seats in the House of Representatives. Democrat Jim Doyle serves as governor, while Republicans control the legislature.

In the race for the White House, both parties have tried hard to break away in Wisconsin lavishing money and attention on the state.

A July study by the University of Wisconsin found that the campaigns have spent $200 million to air more than 100 political ads in swing states like Wisconsin.

Both candidates and their running mates have made frequent campaign visits to Wisconsin, hoping “retail politics” will pay off at the polls in November.

In New York on Sunday, Wisconsin GOP Chairman Richard Graber underscored the importance of personal contact with the president, which he said could make the difference in November.

“People know who President Bush is, they know his record,” Graber said. “And as they come to know him better on a personal level, person to person in the state of Wisconsin, I think we’ll pick up those 5,708 votes that we lost last time and we’ll be victorious.”

The Republican and Democratic delegations from the Dairy State have also both basked in the attention of their national parties at the conventions, enjoying top speakers at delegation breakfasts and prime seating, close to the rostrum, on the convention floor.

In spite of all the courting, Wisconsin voters as a group have refused to fully embrace either candidate. Graber said the neck and neck race reflects the voters’ proud independence while presenting a challenge for candidates, including Mr. Bush.

“Wisconsin is a very independent-minded state and people have to work very, very hard to get their vote,” said Graber. “It’s great that the president is there week after week after week, he’s connecting with the voters in the parts of the state where he hasn’t been before.”

At the Democratic Convention in Boston in July, Graber’s Democratic counterpart, Linda Honold, said Kerry’s campaign was making similar progress with Wisconsin voters by organizing candidate visits and voter participation.

“His job is to be there and inform people what he believes in and then the rest of our jobs, those who are on the ground, is to go out and kind of fill out that message.”

In fact, both parties have said they are working hard to organize and energize voters. Polls indicate that those efforts are another factor that could make the difference in November. In the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, the president showed a slight lead among likely voters while Kerry moved slightly ahead when registered voters were polled.

Dairy State Republicans in New York said their efforts will mean victory in November.

“We’re seeing more and more people energized, we have a grassroots organization that is larger than it was in 2000 and that is going to carry the day for us this year, and will carry the state for the president,” said MacEwen.

-- By Jason Manning, Online NewsHour