Posted: October 2, 2007 5:39 PM
Giuliani Looks Past Primary Woes to General Election
A 4th quarter memo written by Rudy Giuliani’s campaign strategy director Brent Seaborn pulled positive numbers from national polls and early voting states (including the Feb. 5 group) and stacked up Giuliani’s advantages over his GOP opponents. “As this race enters the home stretch, Mayor Giuliani continues lead every national poll while no single opponent has emerged to threaten his frontrunner status,” Seaborn wrote.
It highlighted an important theme: When Sen. Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee - as Giuliani anticipates - he will be the only candidate to beat her in a general election matchup. “There is no candidate that Hillary Clinton and the Democrats fear more in the general election than Rudy Giuliani. That strength is further supported by recent poll numbers showing Mayor Giuliani as the Republican’s strongest general election candidate and reiterated by Democratic polling in swing Democratic congressional districts,” Seaborn’s memo asserted.
But even as the memo cites polls with Giuliani leading among all Republican subgroups, he hasn’t completely won over the hearts of religious and social conservatives. As a voting bloc, it has wielded strong influence in previous elections but faults Giuliani for his positions on abortion and gay rights as well as his three marriages.
Over the weekend, James Dobson of Focus on the Family, and other social conservative leaders in the Council for National Policy said that if Giuliani became the Republican nominee, they would jump ship and support a third-party candidate that opposes abortion.
In explaining the move, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins said on MSNBC’s Hardball, “This was more of a proclamation of principle, rather than a declaration of intent. There’s no desire to run a third-party candidate. But there’s been a line drawn, which I think most pro-life conservatives are not willing to cross.”
But more bad news may be on the way when Giuliani’s campaign releases its 3rd quarter fundraising numbers. Late last week, just before the Federal Election Commission’s close of books at midnight Sunday, Giuliani’s chief fundraiser Anne Dunsmore left the campaign. She was replaced by James H. Lee, a former fundraiser for President Bush who was brought in earlier in the campaign to increase its donor base. The New York Times reported that Lee’s entrance contributed to Dunsmore’s exit and that that the campaign didn’t handle the shake-up so well.
On Saturday, Giuliani addresses the National Federation of Republican Women Convention in Palm Springs, Calif.
Last week, Giuliani appeared at over 1,000 houses as part of his National House Party Night. By virtually reaching thousands of supporters, Giuliani was able to capture the long-tail of politics, according to David All of TechPresident, a blog that track candidates on the Web.
In the upcoming week, Giuliani will travel in person to New Hampshire Oct. 3 for stops in Manchester, Derry, Nashua, and Salem, and a town hall meeting in Windham.