Posted: November 9, 2007 5:07 PM
Obama's Poll Gaps Add Intrigue to Iowa Contest
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., while lagging behind Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in nationwide polls, is still a contender in the first important contest of the 2008 Democratic calendar — the Iowa caucus.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, which compiles an average number from various polls, Obama is polling at a 23.6 percent average to Clinton’s 30 percent average. That number, taken from a sample of polls from Oct. 10 to Nov. 6, also shows former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., at 19.6 percent.
Although Clinton is enjoying an early lead and buzz about her “inevitable” nomination, Political watchers aren’t dismissing the chance of an Iowa upset, the evidence of may be long embodied by Howard Dean’s scream in 2004.
Chatter about an Obama upset in Iowa surfaced this week in the Associated Press. Columnist Ron Fournier warns Clinton that if she alienates key activists, she could lose Iowa and the subsequent nomination.
Fournier advises Obama, on the other hand, to lay out “one bold policy proposal” to go with his “spot-on message for this era of failed leadership.”
John Dickerson at Slate.com asks why Obama isn’t decimating Clinton in Iowa and offers this possibility: Clinton’s Iowa supporters are older and have experienced the complicated caucus process, while Obama’s “new brand of politics” message attracts young, inexperienced voters who could have difficulty transitioning from star-struck fan to trusted caucus participant.
Obama trails significantly in all of the other polls. Even by double digits in the latest Rasmussen New Hampshire poll.
Rasmussen reported Thursday that a nationwide poll shows Obama facing an uphill battle for the confidence of the American people. Only 11 percent say that they think Obama will win the nomination.