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Posted: January 3, 2008 4:59 PM
For Dems, It's Be Viable or Go Home
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Every four years, the somewhat arcane rules surrounding the Iowa Democratic caucus become the subject of much confusion among the press and an integral part of campaign strategy. With the contest so close, this year is no different.

Under the Democratic rules — the GOP, just to add to the confusion, does things differently — participants at each of the 1,784 precinct meetings indicate their candidate choice generally by standing with fellow supporters in a designated part of the room.

The party officials then do some quick math and decide which candidates are viable — for Iowa Democrats that means which candidates that have the support of at least 15 percent of the caucus-goers.

Should a candidate fail to score the required 15 percent at that precinct, they are out of luck and out of contention. Their supporters are then cajoled, lobbied and/or sweet-talked into joining another campaign. Sometimes, as in the case of Dennis Kucinich this year, the candidate recommends which campaign to support should they come up short in a precinct, but for the most part it is up to the individual.

And that uncertainty is driving a flurry of plotting and conjecturing among campaigns, pundits and bloggers.

Some pollsters have said all this viability talk could be a secret boon for John Edwards who has been polling well in the somewhat-sought-after “Second Choice” slot. Others say there is a real fight between Obama and Edwards for those voters.

And then there are the rumors about deals and counter-deals. The Washington Post reported one this afternoon about a possible deal brewing between Sen. Joe Biden and Obama’s campaign where Obama supporters would boost Biden’s representation in precincts where the Delaware senator is stronger and in return the Biden team would urge their supporters to back Obama if their man does not get the 15 percent.

Not to be out-rumored, The New York Times reported on its blog 30 minutes later that the Obama team had cut a similar deal, only they said it was with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

How much these possible deals will impact the final results is anyone’s guess at this point, but history indicates it can improve a candidate’s final margin by at least a handful of percentage points.