Posted: March 4, 2008 4:29 PM
For the Democrats, a Numbers Game
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193: Texas delegates at stake.
141: Ohio delegates at stake.
21: Rhode Island delegates at stake.
15: Vermont delegates at stake.
370: Total delegates up for grabs in four states. 8,000: Caucus locations in Texas that will open after the state’s primary.
1/3: Portion of Texas delegates allocated through caucusing.
12,750,000: Number of registered voters in Texas.
3,300,000: Projected number of those who will vote in Texas’ primary.
7,9000,000: Number of registered voters in Ohio.
4,180,000: Projected number of those who will vote in Ohio’s primary.
44: Years since Ohio has not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential election.
6: Percentage points President Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry in Ohio in 2004.
11: Consecutive contests Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., has lost to Sen. Barack Obama heading into Tuesday’s contests.
14: Months Clinton and Obama have been campaigning.
1,386: Delegates won by Obama heading into Tuesday.
1,276: Delegates won by Clinton heading into Tuesday.
2,025: Delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.
254: Counties in Texas.
88: Counties in Ohio.
3: Percentage points by which Clinton leads Obama in latest Zogby polling in Texas.
44: Percentage points each Democrat has in latest Zogby polling in Ohio.
10: States that will vote after Tuesday.
-- By , NewsHour with Jim Lehrer | Comments | Link
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12: Number of cookies I absentedmindedly ate while watching Obama's lead in Texas slip ever so slightly
2.5: Number of hours spent procrastinating by reading NPR's coverage of "Make or Break Tuesday" tonight. So, my question is this: Both Sens. Clinton and Obama have received more votes in Ohio and Texas than the entire Republican slate (at least based on a quick rough tally in my head) - how much of that has to do with McCain having already "wrapped up" the Rep. nomination, and how much because the Republicans are thoroughly disillusioned this year? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
Here's some interesting numbers. Remember the spreadsheet with projections the Obama campaign had?
Well, whoever did it up was right on. Final results aren't in for 100% of the Ohio and Texas precincts, but here we go.
Rhode Island - projected 8 Obama/13 Clinton. Results 8/13
Vermont - projected 9/6. Results 9/6
Ohio - projected 46% Obama/Clinton 53%. Delegate split 68/73 Actual - 92% counted - remaining is in pro-Obama territory, but current % split is 43/55 so that would make the delegate split 65/76 - a swing of just 3 delegates from their projection.
Texas was projected to be 47/51 - and results right now - with 91% counted are 48/51. Their delegate projection was 92/101 - I guess we'll see in the morning how close that is. So, with that much accuracy and Barack's superdelegate count sitting at 194 and Hillary's at 238 tonight, if the rest of the race continued as the Obama projections predict and he and Hillary split the superdelegates - (not too likely since there were 50 ready to break his way according to Tom Brokaw); Barack would have 1693 to her 1536.5 plus 182 superdelegates - and have 2069 to her 1936. Yes - he still has 133 more delegates in the end.
And what has Hillary's 3 weeks of kitchen sink tactics done? Well, she's added to the number of Hillary-haters, will definitely lose future voters, and has changed the polls so that now instead of Obama easily beating McCain and even Hillary beating McCain, that McCain without campaigning is now beating them both! Rush Limbaugh couldn't be prouder!