Posted: May 8, 2008 3:32 PM
Democratic Contest Descends into Never-ending Math Equation
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After Democratic presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama’s Tuesday victory in North Carolina and his close finish behind rival Sen. Hillary Clinton in Indiana, the Illinois senator stands only 179 delegates away from the long-elusive 2,025 figure that will secure the party’s nomination, according to the Associated Press.
Obama picked up at least 97 delegates Tuesday compared to Clinton’s 86. According to the AP’s version of the numbers, Clinton stands 329 delegates away from the nomination. She would need at least 68 percent of the remaining delegates — the type of calculation that has prompted some pundits and party insiders to call for her to drop out in the face of nearly impossible odds with just six contests left.
Despite the talking head campaign, the New York senator has remained determined to stay in the race until a nominee is chosen. “Her feeling is she’s made a commitment to let the people in the remaining states have their chance to express their voice, and she’ll move forward with that part of the campaign in a way that will both make the case for her but also be constructive for the Democratic Party,” Clinton campaign strategist Geoff Garin said Wednesday, according to the Washington Post.
Neither candidate will win the nomination based purely on the delegates awarded in the array of primaries and caucuses. Now with only 217 pledged delegates remaining in states that have yet to vote, the nomination will likely fall on the shoulders of the 270 super delegates who have not yet committed to either candidate.
It should be noted that all super delegates are technically “unpledged”, meaning even those who have indicated they support one candidate are free to change their mind, and their vote, any time up to the convention.
Although leaving the nomination to a campaign to garner the support of those unpledged delegates could potentially mean delaying a decision until the Democratic National Convention in August, Clinton’s own campaign manager, Terry McAuliffe, predicted Wednesday the party’s nominee would be selected by early next month.
“It’ll be over early June,” McAuliffe said, according to Reuters. McAuliffe, a former chairman of the national party, also tried to quell fears that the nastiness of the Democratic race is putting the party in danger of becoming too divided to defeat presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain in November’s general election.
“If Hillary doesn’t win, Hillary, (former) President Clinton, myself, we’ll be over there helping Senator Obama,” he said, adding. “And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she’s the nominee.”
Clinton headed straight to West Virginia after Tuesday’s contests, hoping to claim a large majority of the state’s 28 delegates in next week’s primary. She holds a demographic advantage in the Mountain State, where much of the population is made up of the white and working class who have been the core of her supporters.
Beyond West Virginia, however, Clinton will face more difficult battles against Obama in Kentucky, Oregon and the largest remaining primary, 55-delegate-rich Puerto Rico. Montana and South Dakota, each with 16 delegates, also have yet to vote.
Super delegates have responded to Obama’s lead in recent months with a steady trickle of support for him, although Clinton still leads Obama 272 to 259 in that count, according to AP tallies. On Wednesday, Virginia super delegate Jennifer McClellan switched her vote from Clinton to Obama.
The elder statesmen of the party have also begun to speak out in favor of Obama. Former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, who is not a super delegate, switched his support to the Illinois senator following Tuesday’s results.
“I do think the mathematics are all with Senator Obama,” McGovern said on CNN. “What we have to avoid is following a course that will deliver an election to John McCain that he otherwise couldn’t get.”
As her opponent creeps closer to the nomination, Clinton has become increasingly intent on seating delegates from the punished Michigan and Florida primaries, both of which she won. In Florida where the candidates agreed not to campaign but all appeared on the ballot, Clinton carried 50 percent of the vote of the vote compared to Obama’s 33 percent, so seating the state’s 210 delegates could give her a much-needed boost. In Michigan, which holds 156 pledged delegates, she won 55 percent of the vote, although Obama and then-candidate Sen. John Edwards were not on the ballot.
The national Democratic Party stripped both states of their delegates as punishment for holding early nominating contests. Legislators in both states have struggled since their January primaries to come up with a way to be represented.
On Wednesday, Michigan legislators submitted a proposal that would designate 69 delegates to Clinton and 59 to Obama, the Detroit Free Press reported. Included in these allocations would be the state’s super delegates. The proposal will be reviewed during a national party Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting on May 31.
A solution for Florida’s delegates has yet to be reached.
-- By , NewsHour with Jim Lehrer | Comments | Link
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In case nobody has said this yet, the Clintons need to change their campaign slogan to the Audacity of Hope.
It's shameful that these so called Democratic elders deserting Hillary Clinton for the trendy Obama. They have no conviction nor loyalty. It's interesting to watch these primaries from afar (Australia)and see how people follow the trendy rather than substance and experience. I admire Hill's decision to fight on to the bitter end. Good luck!
DON'T BE DUPED !!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. With Hillary Clinton you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. "Carpe diem" (harvest the day). You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.
You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don't want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more immoral profits for them-selves.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama's. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses, and open primaries where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help. Except North Carolina where 35% of the population is African American, and approximately 90% of them block voted for him. African Americans are only approximately 17% of the general population.
Hillary Clinton has been OUT MANNED! OUT GUNNED! and OUT SPENT! 4 and 5 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. That is crystal clear now. Because all of the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. And the demographics, and experience are completely against him. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is.
You will have another McGovern catastrophe where George McGovern lost 49 of 50 states. And was the reason the super-delegates were created to keep that from happening again. Don't let that happen to the party and America again super-delegates. You have the power to prevent it. The only important question now is who can best win in November. And the answer is HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON. That fact is also now crystal clear.
And YOUNG PEOPLE. DON'T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose. As do African Americans. Support Hillary Clinton. She will do her best for all of you. And she will know how to best get it done on day one.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton's have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic, and heroic comebacks of Hillary Clinton�s. Only the Clinton�s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen. Probably the best there has ever been. Maybe it's time for Hillary to start thinking about switching to an INDEPENDENT run for the presidency. Wipe the slate clean. After all she is running to be the President of all the people. She, Bill, and Chelsea would cream everyone. You know it's true. :-)
�This is not a game� (Hillary Clinton)
Sincerely
jacksmith... Working Class :-)
JUst want to know if they add on
Fl and Michigan does the total #
of delegates 2025 have to go higher?
To ALL of the Super Delegates:
Before deciding:
1) Ask them to look at what a Winner-Take-All Delegate Count would look like for each Primary. and the TOTAL.
If this was a General Election between them, Hillary would have already been elected
2) Review Barrack Obama's suggestion that all the Super Delegates should vote for the Winner of each Primary.
He doesn't seem to be suggesting that any more.
All right, now the story changes from ineluctable unelectability of the Clintons to all the rats jumping from the sinking ship. Let's take a look at the people jumping ship. It's just so interesting.
I hope to GOD that someone will print this to these next cities or states that our beloved Hillary will be campaignine. I found this in Houston Chronicle Newspaper May 9, 2008 written by Robert D. Novak a nationally syndicated columnist based in Washington.
Buyer's remorse was beginning to afflict supporters of Barack Obama before Tuesday's primary election returns showed he had delivered a knockout punch against Hillary Clinton. The young orator who HAD SEEMED so fantastic beginning with his 2007 Jefferson-Jackson dinner speech in Iowa DISSAPOINTED EVEN HIS OWN ADVISORS over the past two weeks and OLD PARTY HANDS MOURNED that they were STUCK with a FLAWED CANDIDATE
Democrats were distressed by an inexperienced Obama's INEPTITUDE In handling adversity the past month. These SUPERDELEGATES NEED TO OPEN THEIR EYES AND start thinking about Protecting AMERICA before it's too late. That's why Obama's campaign is such in a hurry to get him nominated but the Republicans are not blind when it comes to Obama. How dare he think he can fool all of AMERICA whe GOD's TRUTH IS definitely not with a person that has associated with such people that condemn AMERICA. GOD'S TRUTH is with HILLARY CLINTON a TRUE CHAMPION AT HEART. NOW their stuck with a FLAWED CANDIDATE and MCCAIN is going to SLAUGHTER him with his own PAST that will come out. We always say GOD BLESS AMERICA. What fools how can they trust Obama with our Beloved Country.
Hillary Clinton has the Heart of a CHAMPION AND WOULD TAKE CARE AMERICA without a doubt.
AMERICA OPEN YOURS EYES
Who WOULDN'T desert Clinton? Billary keeps making this campaign about tearing Obama apart, instead of focusing on the issues at hand. Such dirty tactics for someone with supposed "substance and experience." Someone with those qualities need not bother with ad-hominem attacks and rest in the trust of his or her sound reasoning. Obviously this is not what Billary is doing.
Hillary Clinton is really hell bent to become president like the classmate of her husband Philippine sleaze Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. God save the Philippines and America against corrupt leaders.