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Posted: May 30, 2008 6:17 PM
Democrats Head into Touchy Meeting over Fla., Mich. Delegates
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Beginning Saturday morning, Howard Dean will preside as his party’s King Solomon — trying to guide the Democrats’ Rules and Bylaws Committee through the delicate matter of how or if to seat the delegates for the rule-breaking primaries Michigan and Florida.

Dean, the Democratic National Committee chairman who is perhaps best known for his “scream” during the 2004 Democratic primary — will face a delicate political situation.

What’s at stake during the meeting in a leafy northwest Washington, D.C., neighborhood? First, would be the viability of the presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton. Additionally the committee will grapple with a decision that could further split the party or try and unify it just five months before the November general election against presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain.

The members of the usually overlooked Rules and Bylaws Committee will determine whether to reinstate any of the states’ delegates to the party convention after the states broke ranks and held primaries earlier than the party allowed.

“How the votes are cast could end, or seemingly endlessly extend, the Democratic presidential primary,” Reid Wilson wrote at RealClearPolitics.com.

“The challenges, filed by a Florida DNC member and the Michigan Democratic Party, seek to reinstate at least half the pledged delegate votes from both states as well as the full compliment of super delegates in each. And while the proposed solutions would benefit Hillary Clinton’s campaign, giving her added delegates and moving the goal still further for rival Barack Obama, the Illinois senator’s campaign has signaled that, to move beyond the issue, they are willing to accept some compromise.”

The Clinton campaign has signaled that they expect both states delegations to be seated at the convention without penalty — something that would certainly strengthen her waning grasp of topping the Democratic ticket in November. Her camp argues that the Democrats could have two possible battleground states extremely mad at them if the 1.7 million votes cast in Florida’s primary and the 600,000 in Michigan count for naught.

“Our expectation and our belief is the DNC will vote on Saturday to seat Florida and Michigan at 100 percent,” her spokesman Howard Wolfson said, according to Agence France-Presse.

Thomas B. Edsall, the Huffington Post’s political editor, doesn’t see that happening.

“The Clinton proposal — which now faces tough, if not insurmountable, odds … would give the New York Senator 55 more delegates than would go to Obama,” he wrote. “The alternative of either halved votes or halved delegations would net Clinton only 20 or so delegates, depending on the details. Obama could afford to concede a 20-plus delegate gain to Clinton without endangering his overall delegate advantage.

“Harold Ickes, Clinton’s chief delegate hunter, warned that there may be some defections among the 13 RBC members who have endorsed Hillary. If Ickes and his allies cannot hold all their troops in line, a motion before the RBC to seat all 210 Florida and 156 Michigan delegates with a full vote each would face certain defeat.”

On Friday, Clinton’s Web site asked visitors to send messages to committee members telling them to count the Florida and Michigan votes while Obama’s site subtly stated that he needs another 41 delegates to secure the nomination.

While Obama’s magic number could go up depending on the DNC meeting’s outcome, but both candidates would still need the support of enough super delegates clinch the nomination. Obama would just need far fewer than Clinton.

DNC staff lawyers said this week that it’s not an option to restore full voting rights to all 210 delegates for Florida and the 156 for Michigan, telling the committee’s 30 members in a memo that party rules allow the DNC could reinstate at most half the delegates, or give half a vote each to all of them.

Clinton aides were coy about whether they might fight all the way to the convention in Denver if she does not win a favorable outcome this weekend.

Former Michigan Gov. James Blanchard and Florida state Sen. Arthenia Joyner will argue Clinton’s case on Saturday while Obama’s representatives will be Florida Rep. Robert Wexler and former Michigan Congressman David Bonior, his campaign said.

“I expect that we will come together around some solution that provides some delegates to Florida and Michigan and respects the rules and the process,” Ralph Dawson, a rule committee member from New York who is not publicly backing a candidate, told RealClearPolitics.

Politicos and Clinton supporters, especially, will be paying extra careful attention to the outcome of the meeting - if not protesting en masse outside the meeting. Obama’s campaign has urged his supporters to steer clear to avoid turning ” this thing into a circus,” former DNC chair and Obama supporter David Wilhelm said.

A group called Florida Demands Representation said it was expecting more than 2,000 demonstrators.

But watching the DNC hash out the party’s future might not make for the most exhilarating way to spend an entire Saturday.

As the Tribune Company’s The Swamp blog put it: “Just in case you have broken both ankles or they are predicting 18 inches of rain in your neighborhood on Saturday — or if you are in any significant way invested in the hopes of Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the White House — C-SPAN plans to provide live coverage.”

Or, at the risk of sounding a tad promotional, follow all the developments right here Saturday at the Online NewsHour.