 Incumbent Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is lagging behind Democratic challenger and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley in recent polls -- an encouraging sign for Democrats hoping to carve out a 60-seat majority in the Senate on Tuesday.
Congressional Republicans are scrambling to defend seats in several important states, including Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon, in an effort to prevent Democrats from hitting the 60-seat mark capable of overcoming a filibuster.
Smith, a two-term, 12-year Senate veteran, may have looked like an unlikely target for the Democrats, but Merkley appears to have gained an edge in at least three recent polls. A Public Policy poll released Nov. 1 has Merkley with 51 percent of the vote to Smith's 43 percent. Survey USA has Merkley up 49 to 42 percent and Rasmussen Reports has the race tighter with Merkley at 49 percent and Smith at 46 percent.
The national political trends and frustrations over the economy are reflected in Oregon, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 43 percent to 32 percent.
"Smith is a little bit like a salmon, swimming upstream against a fast running river," Bill Lunch, a political science professor at Oregon State University, told Time Magazine.
"In each successive election cycle in this decade in Oregon, the Democrats are doing better and better," he said.
John Ensign, head of the Republican senatorial campaign committee, expressed a similar sentiment and uncertainty about Tuesday's outcome on CBS's "Face the Nation."
"Democrats are poised to pick up some seats, the exact number we don't know,'' said Ensign. "That financial crisis really has been almost a body blow to Republicans."
New campaign finance numbers from the Federal Election Commission show that the race has been an expensive one for both the Democratic and Republican campaign committees, which together have spent more than $15 million on Oregon's Senate race so far. The Democrats have spent $10.2 million and the Republicans nearly $5 million.
The numbers add up to one of the most expensive Senate races in the country, and easily the most expensive election in Oregon history, reported the Associated Press.
Both candidates are continuing to campaign hard, and the role the race could play in the political make-up of the Senate is now part of both candidates' messages as the contest receives more national attention.
Sen. Smith told the Oregonian on Saturday, "No party should dominate with no brakes, with no checks and balances."
At a Portland rally on Sunday, Merkley referenced the Senate push for 60 seats when he told supporters that they could help elect a "working majority" in the Senate that could end political stalemates, reported the Oregonian.
-- By Talea Miller, Online NewsHour
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