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REGION: North America
TOPIC: Politics
Online NewsHour
Vote 2008: Presidential Election Coverage

Presidential Race

Polls Show Obama Leads McCain on Message of 'Change'

By Alexis Matsui on September 18, 2008

New polls published by the New York Times and CBS News and the Pew Center for People and the Press show while presidential contenders Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama are nearly even in popularity, Obama has a significant lead on his opponent when it comes to who voters feel he could do more to change Washington, D.C.

Sen. Barack Obama; AP Photo

In the Times’ poll, 65 percent of voters believed Obama would bring about more change in government, compared to 37 percent for McCain.

“[McCain] is widely viewed as a ‘typical Republican’ who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies,” the Times reported.

The Times poll found 48 percent of voters in support of Obama, compared to 43 percent for McCain. Just after the Republican National Convention, McCain was polling even with his opponent, and even ahead in some surveys.

The new numbers are nearly identical to those researched ahead of both political conventions.

The Pew poll has the two senators nearly even with Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 44 percent. In Pew’s pre-convention poll, Obama polled at 46 percent to McCain’s 43 percent.

Despite showing similar numbers before the parties’ conventions and after, both polls noted significant shifts in the reasons behind voters’ choices.

At the end of August, only 62 percent of Republican voters said they believe it “really matters” who wins the White House, compares to 71 percent in the new Pew poll.

The change in the Times’ poll was even more dramatic.

“Forty-seven percent of Mr. McCain’s supporters described themselves as enthused about the Republican Party’s presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions,” according to the Times.

Obama maintained his lead on domestic issues such as the economy and energy, but McCain gained some ground. Both polls were conducted during the past few days of considerable economic worry and turmoil as voters listened to the candidates’ plans to restore financial confidence.

The Illinois senator leads his rival 47 percent to 38 percent on who can best handle the economy, the Pew poll suggests.

Fifty percent of voters, however, feel that the military troop surge in Iraq, which McCain has long supported, has made things better in the region, a sentiment that has led many to believe the Arizona Senator would make the better commander-in-chief, the New York Times reported.

Another key factor since the conventions is the vice presidential selections of both candidates.

White women were evenly divided between McCain and Obama prior to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin joining the Republican ticket, but they now sway toward McCain 44 percent to 37 percent, according to the Times.

The Times poll revealed that not everyone is confident in the vice presidential picks, however.

“More than 6 in 10 said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over,” the Times reported. “In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.”

The Pew poll showed that slightly more than half of voters hold a favorable view of Palin, with the same true for Biden.

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Comments

  • Posted:
    09/19/08 at
    01:30 PM
    Kaye Dunn : It seems strage to me that having sat and listened to the Senate sub-committee on Iraq, the surge, etc. and having HEARD then from 3 specialists on IRaq that our governement has been paying $300.00 per month to both sides of the fighting in Iraq NOT to fight each other....and then only ONCE on TV did I see actual videotape of a US Gov't military rep. alongside an Iraqi military rep. actually handing out the money to individual Iraqi Shite/Suni fighters....of COURSE the surge looks as if it worked...but they are not stupid. They are simply taking the money until it stops, at which time the fighting will again begin....why do the American people get told that this has been going on throughout the "surge." And why are the American people not told often about this payoff, temporary as it is. Again, I heard with my own ears the specialists on Iraq speak about this payoff to the Senate Subcomitte and then weeks later saw this payoff video on major network the actual payoff and ritual of it complete with narration explaining thepayoff. PBS or some relevant presentation.
  • Posted:
    09/19/08 at
    05:23 PM
    nancytanyao : hi people;vote for barack obama,stop watching the election all the we need help fixing our texas country like you come here talking vote just see what going on like we need a fix,because of the hurricane hit us your not helping;that all.???
  • Posted:
    09/19/08 at
    08:12 PM
    robert manson : I find it hard to belive that anyone could vote for obama & Joie boy. they are so to the left. How anybright person can't see the markis liberal agender these guy preach.
  • Posted:
    09/19/08 at
    08:14 PM
    robert manson : I dont have mush faith in polls.
  • Posted:
    09/20/08 at
    08:25 PM
    Russell : Why doesn't anyone drill Palin on how socially irresponsible having 5 children is? With 6 billion people in the world and growing, wouldn't it have been more responsible for her to have adopted child 3, 4, and 5? Also, her daughter being pregnant just shows how irresponsible the evangelical practices are.
  • Posted:
    09/20/08 at
    09:01 PM
    yusuf : Good point Kaye they are still paying the groups fighting in Iraq so that they stop fighting i dont know what will happen when the money stops flowing. they are paying terrorist in one side and fighting them on the other side and John Maccain is supporting that.
  • Posted:
    09/20/08 at
    11:08 PM
    Jonni Good : One of McCain's new plans to change our health care system is an odd combination of low-risk capitalism and high-risk socialized medicine. He wants to use new taxes and tax breaks to disconnect our health insurance system from employment. This would eliminate group insurance programs that have to cover all employees and all family members, regardless of current or past health issues. Workers would be thrown into the private health insurance market, where the insurance companies pick and choose which people are 'insurable' (read profitable). Anyone with pre-existing conditions, and anyone with any risk of getting sick, would then be shuffled off to state-run "GAPs" - high risk medical pools run by states, and funded by high premiums and state taxes. The insurance companies make even more profit than they already are, and the taxpayers get to take all the risk. How is this the kind of "change we need?" The system we already have, with all its faults, would be better than that.
  • Posted:
    09/21/08 at
    01:23 AM
    Mary Sharpe Hayes : As I understand it, Palin currently defends her trooper gate actions because her direct report was insubordinate-- she had not approved his travel request to DC (although her chief of staff had approved it). What is a state governor doing approving travel requests? I would hope her time to be far better spent for the people of Alaska performing more essential and demanding activities.
  • Posted:
    09/21/08 at
    09:48 PM
    : The woman from Alaska is in NO way capable of being Vice President should she and Mr. McCain be elected.
  • Posted:
    09/21/08 at
    10:05 PM
    Mary Waldridge : I request that at the debate between McCain and Obama that you ask Obama to put his hand over his heart and say the Pledge Of Allegiance to our Great Flag. Thank you.
  • Posted:
    09/22/08 at
    08:05 PM
    Vyndarlys : Ok so maybe I missed it, being younger than your average baby boomer, but since when is being Left so wrong? When did the term Liberal become a dirty word? Isnt Liberalism based on the root word Liberty? Wouldnt our founding fathers like Jefferson look to such a word with pride and dignity? are we not after all a country of Freed Men (and women) people with Liberty for all? So maybe I am a bit Liberal with my Liberty, but as an American, Isnt that the whole point?
  • Posted:
    09/23/08 at
    03:58 AM
    matthew : As someone who came of polital age during the Reagan Administration, I am a republican wondering if I'm a Reagan democrat. I really liked the McCain I saw 8 years ago, now disillusioned with the republican party, but wanting to believe. I believe that the K street project, and the extent of republican entrenchment in the executive branch and willingness to enforce discipline, has been the primary enabler of the single (wrong?) track that the country has been on for the past 6 years. Is there any discussion of the ability for a republican executive to reform & change the minds and direction of so many people already in positions of influence? Would someone please inquire?
  • Posted:
    09/23/08 at
    05:08 PM
    Stan : I never hear the words "positive" change when the BO agenda is discussed. I'm thinking more negative, like major tax hikes to support their recently announced UN funding increases. (should they take office)...Why should the American taxpayer, already beaten up by the domestic financial crisis, pay more to fight World poverty? Seems to me the extra funding will wind up in dictactors pockets, wilst Americans continue to lose their homes. Why should I vote fo BO/Biden becuse Oprah & the rest of hollywood thinks it's a good idea? Hello-are they in touch with the rest of us? Anyone out there?
  • Posted:
    09/23/08 at
    07:05 PM
    Victoria Terry : Hi I am a high school student and I like to point out that whom ever wrote this artical why do you talk as if Mc Caine is the enemy he is just another man..... and the quotes that you had said I do not believe are right. Our view points on the two candidates maybe different but you do not got the hole truth about them both...Do some more research , make it as if there equal not that one is higher than the other cause they are not, I am not trying to change your opinion on how to see them or who to vote for but it be nice to have one person on here to talk as if they do not judge my appearance or what the media say but my what they bring what they are willing to help or give or sacrifice for this country. I know that this election is going to change not only the U.S.A but those who we have be friend in the other countries. I like that we have our differences that was we know more about both parties....your a great writer. Thank You! god bless your writting ability.
  • Posted:
    09/26/08 at
    02:51 AM
    Gloria Alva : Russell & other Barack lovers..Who made you Judge? I would love to see if you have ever screwed up or any of your family! It is crazy how Barack lovers attack Conservatives & even members of their own party! Barack attacked Hilary for receiving funds from Lobbyist & Special Interest & that is who is paying for his ads...WHAT A HYPOCRIT!! Most of you haven't done your homework!!! He hasn't even done his 2007 taxes or helps his own Grandmother of half mother who make $1 per month, how can he CHANGE our country? He accepted the $500K from his friend who helped bring down Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae & we are left with that huge bill. He is proposing to give SS benefits to illegal immigrants along with medical which helped bankrupt most Calif. counties since there are about 12 million in the US. Worst of all, he believes in & votes for partial birth abortion & abortion and can not answer when LIFE begins!!! To him it doesn't even begin at 9 months when the child is almost born, he has passed a bill in IL that prevents them from reviving a child that survives after a botched abortion. HOW CAN ANY GOOD CHRISTIAN VOTE FOR HIM?!! Unless you don't believe in the GIFT of LIFE & the LOVE of GOD? If you are LOST, VOTE WITH THE MEDIA & THE STARS, since they won;t help you get to heaven!
  • Posted:
    10/ 2/08 at
    02:57 PM
    Jay in Ga. : The FBI is going to investigate Obama & Barney for taking money from Freddie and Fannie. Hey they should also look at the rest of them like Pelosi giving pac money to her husband. Shame on all of you pork spending Demos.
  • Posted:
    10/ 8/08 at
    03:51 PM
    Beth : I do not find it surprising that so many of you back Obama this election season. With the # of cristians decreasing (and even more who don't really follow the rules set forth in the bible), there are far less people concerned with moralistic standards as in elections before. How any good, honorable christian (or any other faith for that matter) can vote for him is beyond me! A man that openly expresses his pro-choice stance of abortion, late-term abortion, and Infanticide. Not to mention, his speech in which he stated, "which passages of scripture should guide our public policy...should we go with leviticus...which suggests slavery is ok...or deuteronomy which suggests stoning your child if he strays from the faith...or should we go with the sermon on the mount, a passage that is so radical...that it is doubtful that our own defense department will survive its application....folks haven't been reading their bible". Yet still, he beats McCain at every gallup-poll. What is this world coming to? This country is turning into a regular Sodom and Gamorrah! Let's throw our morals and religious obligations out the window for some silver tongued IDIOT! However, my foresight is very strong...I see much devastation in the upcoming term and I NO pity for those of you who CHOOSE this path by voting for this man. Good luck and may God be with us!
  • Posted:
    10/10/08 at
    07:53 PM
    andy : Re: Remark from Russell Who cares whether the woman had her own children. It is very hard to adopt in U>S>A> that is why our dollars are going to all the children adopted from China, Asia, Ethiopia and all the other outside countries. Did you adopt? I know I have an American that I have adopted and two biological. You sound like a male chavenist and Palin is not the first mom to have an unwed daughter with child you bigot!
  • Posted:
    10/13/08 at
    09:31 PM
    Terry : I do not believe the polls taken were acurate as there are a lot of people out there that feel Palin is very capable.I have never seen a "vise president candidate" so picked apart as she...are demopcrats afraid a woman will show up their candidates?????
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