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Vote 2008: Presidential Election Coverage

Presidential Race

Obama Has Clear Lead Among Early Voters, Pew Poll Shows

By Alexis Matsui on October 28, 2008

As states being to report record-breaking numbers of early voters, a new survey finds that 53 percent of those who have already voted are backing Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama, compared to 34 percent who have voted for Republican rival Sen. John McCain, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Pew Center for People and the Press.

Among the 1,325 registered voters surveyed by the Pew Center, 52 percent of people who plan to vote on Election Day say they will vote for Obama, and 36 percent said the same of McCain. These results show a marked shift from a mid-September survey that found the candidates running nearly even.

While Obama’s support has held steady, the Pew Center has seen a steady decline in likely McCain voters over the last four surveys.

“Since mid-September, McCain’s support has declined significantly across most voting blocs,” the survey reported. “Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans).”

Despite Obama’s developing advantage in the Pew poll, other surveys have found that key battleground races still remain close. RealClearPolitics polling averages show Obama up in Indiana by only 0.3 percent, Missouri by 0.6 percent and Florida, where both candidates have spent many of the election’s final days, by 2.7 percent.

Currently, 30 states are allowing in-person early or absentee balloting. In Atlanta, more than 1 million voters, about a fifth of those registered, have already voted, said Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, according to CNN. In 2004, only 422,485 people in Georgia voted early.

Despite the strong turnout so far and the expected swell of voters next week, nearly eight percent of voters still remain undecided, according to the Pew Center. Fourteen percent of undecided voters said they have a preference for one candidate but haven’t chosen one yet, and 78 percent said they were still not sure.

Early voting deadlines range from this Friday, Oct. 31, to Monday, Nov. 3. See Rock the Vote’s election center for state-by-state information, or go to YouTube and the NewsHour’s Video Your Vote project to find out to how to share your voting experience.

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