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Week of 5.2.08
Transcript: Election 2008: What to ExpectBRANCACCIO: For those of you keeping score, there are only four weeks left in the 2008 presidential primary season. So what happens now? We came out to California to ask that of two seasoned, beyond-the -beltway political warriors.Willie Brown is the former Democratic mayor of San Francisco and before that was the speaker of the California Assembly. Dan Schnur was a major player in John McCain 's first run for the White House, and he's a veteran of three other republican presidential campaigns. He's currently teaching at the University of California Berkeley. BRANCACCIO: Gentlemen, welcome. SCHNUR: David. BROWN: Nice to see you, David. BRANCACCIO: Willie Brown, you've been saying that you're A-OK with how long this Democratic primary season is going. Lots of democracy. A lot of talk about issues and so forth. But the last time I read you saying that was about a month ago. Are you still feeling-- BROWN: Absolutely. I think it's fabulous, as a matter of fact. And the business of motivating people to participate in politics like never before. BRANCACCIO: In the Indiana primary coming up, Dan, do you think this is gonna be bad for Obama next week? The expectation was he was--polls were showing that--Clinton and Obama were neck and neck there. SCHNUR: Well, I think one--one of the common misperceptions about the state of Indiana is that it is a heavily rural state. And in fact, given the Chicago--outer urban areas in the Indianapolis area, it's a very urban state. This is a horrible week for Senator Obama, for all sorts of reasons. BRANCACCIO: Let me turn to probably the topic of the moment, religion and politics. Topics guaranteed to break apart just about any polite dinner conversation. But you add to politics and religion the notion of race. And then, you have this fellow, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, who manages to push all those buttons all at the same time. And let's take a look, just for a moment, at a little piece of a presentation that Reverend Wright made at the national press club this week. REV. JEREMIAH WRIGHT: Politicians say what they say and do--based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls. Whatever they're doing in the polls. Preachers say what they say cause they're pastors. They have a different person to whom they're accountable. As I said, whether he gets elected or not, I'm still gonna have to be answerable to God November 5th and January 21st. That's what I mean. I do what pastors do. He does what politicians do. BRANCACCIO: What does it mean when you hear--what does it mean to you when you hear Reverend Wright say that Obama does what politicians do? BROWN: That's an assessment that I don't think is--inappropriate or inaccurate. Having been a politician for 40 years, I can assure you that I would not go on any stage any place where I wasn't conscious of what I was saying. Hopefully. And what I was saying should dovetail with whatever message I'm trying to get out. And number two, whatever constituency I'm trying to influence. Or whatever policy I'm trying to sell. That's what politicians do. They're not dishonest, as some people would say we may be. But we do do situational presentations. Now, on the other hand, Mr. Obama has been marketing himself as not a politician, not exactly a politician. So he's got to be livid that Reverend Wright would classify him as a regular politician. BRANCACCIO: Because, of course, the implication is that Senator Obama doesn't always say what he believes. You hope a politician says what he believes, even if he's aware of the politics of what he's saying. BROWN: I think Senator Obama says what he believes. Period. You know, I just don't think that--he is unaware that he has to be careful how he says it. And where he says it and when he says it. SCHNUR: This is a test for Barack Obama. And as impressive a pol--politician he is, he is a relatively inexperienced politician. He was elected to the United States Senate in a campaign against Alan Keyes, which is not exactly hitting big league pitching. And this is his--first serious test, prolonged serious test of adversity. Every candidate faces them. George W. Bush loses New Hampshire. Bill Clinton has his Gennifer Flowers moment. Some candidates recover from these things, like Clinton and Bush. Others, like John Kerry and Bob Dole don't. This is the most significant political test that we've seen Barack Obama facing. How he handles it over the next week or two, I do think, makes or breaks this candidacy. BRANCACCIO: You know, it's interesting. John McCain has his own problem with the pastor John Hagee, who--I remember seeing earlier this year. There was a--a big photo op with--with this minister from San Antonio, Texas. Big flock that he has. Standing next to--John McCain with the--big endorsement. Then, it turns out that--many Catholics in this country are quite offended by some of the things that--Hagee has intimated over the years. And it's now getting a bit awkward for McCain in terms of--which clergy you consort with. SCHNUR: Reverend Hagee has endorsed John McCain, as have dozens of members of the clergy. Certainly, Senator McCain probably should have denounced Hagee in more clear terms than he has. BRANCACCIO: He has distanced himself now. SCHNUR: He has. But I think--but I think equating the two is a difficult thing just because--Reverend Wright has played such a central role in ---Senator Obama's personal and spiritual life over the years. And I think if you watched Senator Obama's press conference earlier this week, you saw somebody who's not only positioned himself politically, although he is certainly doing that, but somebody who is personally wounded. BROWN: Dan is correct. There is a closer relationship between the two. But there is one more factor that distinguishes. The Obama-Wright issue had the underpinning of race. McCain and his pastor have nothing to do with race. It only has to do with whether or not some Catholics were concerned about his utterances and his conduct. Whereas, everybody, other than every black in this country, were concerned about the comments that Wright made on the question of race. There is a confined constituency in this country that will never vote for a woman, and that will never vote for an African American. They'll never tell you that, but it's there. And I don't, I'm not crying wolf, so to speak. I'm a realist. And if I know it's there, then if it's Obama, I know I've got to do what Obama has done in this primary season. And that's increase the voting pool by two or three, in terms of numbers and turn out and participation-- BRANCACCIO: To make up for the people--who would never vote for a black man? BROWN: To make up for the people that will never, Democrats, in many cases, that will never vote for a person of color, or vote for a woman. So, I know that we have a job to do. It's almost like bein' black in America. You've got to be better. BRANCACCIO: Increase the pool of voters, though? That's the only way to--you--you're not gonna convince the five to seven percent? BROWN: Don't waste your time. You don't have that much time in three months to take away many years of racism, reposed in people, period. And it's not evil, as such. It's just there. You can't get it out. But their kid may not be infected with the same virus. You got a shot at that kid. And Obama has proven that those shots with those kids are possible, and they can be persuaded. And he's been persuadin' them. SCHNUR: ...A significant double digit number of Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters--cast their ballot at least partially on the basis of race. And I think it speaks statistically to the--to the point that--the Mayor's making. BROWN: And it's gotta be worse in other states, because Pennsylvania is not exactly what you would call a hardcore state on the race issue. Pennsylvania is--you know, like the foundation of this nation. And so there've been lots of Yankee influence in Pennsylvania. Well, you throw that into some other states, and you do have a major, major, major problem with race. BRANCACCIO: One wonders how this plays out among voters. But you know, on some level, you want to ask yourself how does it play out among the super delegates who could really decide who becomes the Democratic nominee? Have you been a super delegate Willie-- BROWN: Twenty years I was a super delegate. I was part of the creation of the super delegate operation. You would go back to the years of George McGovern. When we did the McGovern presentation and McGovern got the nomination in '72, we started to reform the party. And so, we came up nationally with the idea of allowing people who are congress persons, governors, the state chairs, and people--luminaries like Al Gore and people like that, Bill Clinton, ex-presidents, all those people gained status as what we call unpledged delegates. I don't know who tagged them super delegates. But they are unpledged delegates who's responsibility it is, is to look out for the Democratic party. These people are the keepers of the Holy Grail, so to speak. They are the individuals who, under all circumstances, can withstand the popular winds, if necessary, to protect the integrity of the Democratic party. Obama's issue in the last week and a half has had more to do with addressing their concerns. And believe me, they know that Dan and his crowd have not unloaded on Obama. And believe me, they're looking at Obama's ability to repair himself in this short time span. If he cannot, I would predict it'll be a lot more difficult for him to persuade that collection of unpledged delegates. Their interest is in defeating the Republican nominee. SCHNUR: But if it's okay, David, I want to go back to something that the mayor said because I found this profoundly interesting. We have here one of the creators of this super delegate, or unpledged delegate system. And what I hear him saying, and excuse me for--for paraphrasing, is that these unpledged delegates, these super delegates, this process was put in place in order to make sure--and I know you don't use this language, to make sure that the delegates don't go rushing off in some--overly peculiar direction. They're there to-- BRANCACCIO: --to the left. BROWN: Or to the right. It doesn't matter. BRANCACCIO: Or to the right. SCHNUR: So it's--adult supervision, if you will. And you don't have to use the terms. (LAUGHTER) But the super delegates were created to restore some order to the process, when that process seems to be losing order. That, to me, sounds like a pretty good case for telling this year's super delegates to vote their conscience. And I know you are unaligned in this race, Mr. Mayor. But that's precisely the case that Senator Clinton's campaign has been making. That you should not feel obligated to constituents. You were appointed a super delegate for a reason. And you should vote in what you believe to be your party's best interests. BRANCACCIO: When are we ever gonna hear from these unpledged super delegates? Anytime soon? BROWN: One of the unpledged delegates, after Obama's speech, went for Obama. Two on the same time went for Clinton. So every day, you're hearing. And people should know that already more than--more than 550 of those so called 800 persons have made their choice. And every day, others are making their choice. Some probably won't ever make a choice. Harry Reed and Nancy Pelosi may never make a choice. Howard Dean, as the chair of the national committee, may never make a choice. So there are probably 20 or 30 who are in the category they will not choose. But the other 200 or so, I think, will be online and will have said where they are long before the month of June expires. BRANCACCIO: Is that right? So maybe late May, going into Memorial Day, we might know who the Democrats are gonna have-- BROWN: No, no, no, no. I don't think you'll know that early. I think you've gotta go through the last primary. I don't think there will be a--because you see there are more than 250 outstanding votes that haven't yet even been addressed. BRANCACCIO: Well that's primarily the Democrats and-- BROWN: Michigan and Florida. BRANCACCIO: Oh that issue. BROWN: You--so you can't envision winning this thing without those two states. And that's why you're gonna see, sooner than later, compromises being floated out by responsible people on how do you settle Michigan and how do you settle Florida. Florida is easier, by the way, cause both names were on the ballot in Florida. But in Michigan, only Hillary was on the ballot. So the issue is how do you now go for some resolution there? BRANCACCIO: But Willie Brown, doesn't any deal to seat some of the Florida or Michigan delegates just favor Hillary Clinton? BROWN: You can't view a solution as favorin' or not favorin'. Always, somebody is gonna be advantaged. I can assure you, however, that if you're gonna win the presidency, you have got to put Florida and Michigan in this election process. And you've got to do it in a way in which a majority of the people on the floor of the convention approves. No solution can be done on the share of a majority of the people voting on the floor supported it. BRANCACCIO: And here's the man who understands that type of politics. Talking about just that issue. He's the expert? SCHNUR: Well, the--the--the irony here, or the appropriate--appropriateness here of--of Willie Brown talking about contested delegations fighting to be seated in Democratic National Convention is extraordinary. Because one of the most exciting, one of the most inspiring moments in American political history was the 1972 Democratic Convention, I'm--I'm told by my elders. (LAUGHTER) BRANCACCIO: I seem to remember back when I was 12. George McGovern won California. Winner take all was the original rule, right? SCHNUR: And this man took to the floor of the convention and gave a--an awe-inspiring speech--in which he--yea--told the convention, "Give me back my delegation." And he not only turned the sentiment on the floor of the convention, but if you don't mind me saying so, Mr. Mayor, began to make his name in national politics--on the strength--on the strength of that speech. And I wonder if there is an up-and-coming young Democratic pol from the State of Florida or the State of Michigan who is going to be similarly center stage in Denver this year, when the Obama and Clinton forces go to the floor of the convention to battle out which delegation gets seated. BRANCACCIO: Just so we understand, though, you were battling off a challenge--there were the people who didn't like McGovern. Thought he was perhaps too left-wing, who wanted to change the rules? BROWN: What they were wrong about was tryin' to change the nature of the selection process in the middle of the selection process. The rules were the rules. California was winner take all. And we won that fight. And in winnin' that fight, we got the nomination. SCHNUR: The--the winner take all situation, to me, has been extraordinarily overlooked throughout this primary season. Because if the Democrats had a winner take all system, in which all delegates were pledged in each--in each state's primary. BRANCACCIO: Yeah--what happens in that situation? SCHNUR: If every Democratic primary so far had given their delegates in total to the winner of that state's primary, the way the Republicans do, Senator Clinton would have secured the nomination many weeks ago, on the strength of winning California, on the strength of winning New York and other large states. SCHNUR: On the--on the flip side, you know--we have a winner take all system, which, you know, he--helped McCain secure the nomination earlier. If we had the same time - kind of aportional system the Democrats do, Senator McCain and Governor Huckabee would still be running for the nomination. And just like Obama and Clinton have had to rush to the left, as their primary's worn on, our party's candidates would be listing off so far to the right that Senator McCain would be giving his speeches in tongues in order to secure our delegates. But it's a fundamental - BROWN: Which I would love every second of - 'cause I think that's the true McCain. SCHNUR: Hey, hey, hey. But that's (LAUGHTER) a fun--it's a fundamental difference between the two parties. Republicans are very no-nonsense about this. We say winner take all. You win, you lose. You go on. You go home. The Democrats say, "You didn't lose. You finished second." BROWN: But then, keep in mind, (LAUGHTER) the Democrats say that because they don't have the same level of party loyalty that you've demonstrated over th--your party has demonstrated over the years. You don't hear people talkin' about the potential for divisiveness among Republicans, as you do among Democrats. Democrats are always talkin' about takin' their marbles and go home, if they don't prevail, or if their side doesn't prevail. SCHNUR: Well, giving delegates to all the candidates who run sounds a little bit like the children's soccer league, where everybody gets a trophy at the end of the season. BRANCACCIO: You mentioned take your marbles and go home. I would like to humbly, at this moment in history, dub it the "sore loser syndrome." You have a lot of people, especially on the Democratic side, who love their candidate. But it might be Hillary Clinton. Or it might be Barack Obama. What do you think about the possibility that some Democrats will just lose enthusiasm, because their man or woman is not on the ticket? And just, maybe just not show up on Election Day? BROWN: There will be some. Be advised. There always are some who will not participate, because they were into a personality, not policy. They went into personality, not principle. But I maintain that the level of participation in these series of primaries involving th--so many talented people has been so enthusiastically received by Democrats, generally, the level of financial participation unprecedented. I don't think that will be abated, whether it's Clinton or whether it's Obama. BRANCACCIO: You might have thought that. I saw this poll, though, from the Gallup Organization that said if it, if it's Obama versus McCain, 27 percent switch over to McCain. SCHNUR: I--I don't believe that for a minute, and I will tell you why. The overwhelming majority of Clinton supporters or Obama supporters, should Clinton win, as angry as they are now, they are so--intense in their anger towards this White House and toward this administration-- BRANCACCIO: They'll trump it? SCHNUR: They can settle this nomination on Halloween, and they'll come together in time for a general election, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. I call it--I call it the politics of hunger. The longer it's been since you've been invited to a State Dinner at the White House, the hungrier you get. BRANCACCIO: They must be pretty hungry. No one's ever asked. SCHNUR: But just like after eight years of Clinton/Gore, Republicans are motivated, in terms of turn out in primaries. In terms of fundraising. In terms of enthusiasm. This year, the Democrats, after eight years on the outside, are--are just as motivated. And I agree with the Mayor, that I don't think that enthusiasm goes away in a general election. BRANCACCIO: Willie Brown? BROWN: And I think that there are some other factors that are uniquely favorable to the Democrats. I think the general public views the economy as bein' a burden for the Republicans now. Equal almost to the war. Democrats handled this correctly. I don't think the Republicans have an answer. McCain is goin' around tryin' to display new credentials, to make him something different from bein' "McBush," as some people have often referred to him as. I don't think, come September 1st, no matter what he does, in May, June, July, and August, that's gonna change people's perception. BRANCACCIO: Unless, one might argue, it isn't the economy late in the fall that is dominating people's minds. What if it's national security? John McCain--has a track record there. BROWN: John McCain has a track record. But the war is a burden. And the war will continue to be a burden. The war secured Nancy Pelosi's speakership. Absolutely nothing else. McCain can't get away from that. As a matter of fact, McCain, tryin' to shake his comments about how many years we would continue in Iraq is almost like Obama tryin' to shake Jeremiah Wright. SCHNUR: That said--I think Senator McCain has some advantages that another Republican nominee--would not have. Number one--my friend Willie Brown talks about the new McCain. Try--a--attempting to establish himself at the center. But in fact, that has been John McCain, throughout his career. And even if you disagree with him on certain issues, I think you--you need to grant him points for consistency--on issues like immigration. On issues like global warming. On issues like stem cell research. On issues like judicial selection. Because he comes from the party of the President who currently occupies the White House, it is a big obstacle for him. But I also think that talking about tax increases during a recession creates a problem for the Democratic nominee. And Senator McCain, I think, does have somewhat of an advantage, in that discussion over--over taxes, by supporting an extension of the current tax cuts. He essentially is able to say to voters who are worried about a recession--"I'm not the candidate who is gonna take that money away from you. It's that other candidate, over there." BRANCACCIO: Now --one thing before we go. Important issue--talked nationally. But we're all having this lovely chat right here in California. No way John McCain can win a state like California? No way, even though there's a moderate Republican governor? What do you think, Willie Brown? BROWN: I think he better spend time in some place where he has a possibility of winnin'. BRANCACCIO: And not-- BROWN: The numbers-- BRANCACCIO: --in California? BROWN: --are so overwhelmin' in California. The political structure of California, the infrastructure on the Democratic side is so much greater than it is power --from power standpoint on the Republican side. And there are so few Republican stars available to be his surrogates in California. Were I managin' McCain, I'd spend more time in Ohio and Pennsylvania than I would in California. BRANCACCIO: Still, 55 sweet electoral votes in this state. Should McCain just stay out? SCHNUR: It's gonna be tempting for the McCain campaign. And I think it's tempting for good reason. Because California, much more than being a Democratic state, and certainly not a liberal state, is a centrist state. For the most part, the politicians we elect in state-wide elections, whether it's Arnold Schwarzenegger and Pete Wilson on one side, whether it's Grey Davis and Dianne Feinstein on the other, tend to fairly centrist candidates. SCHNUR: If you look at the relatively centrist positions that he has staked out on global warming, on stem cell research, on campaign on--in campaign finance reform, in, on illegal immigration, I think it gives him at least a fighting chance here. BRANCACCIO: So, Willie Brown, you ever gonna tell us who you're gonna support? (LAUGHTER) Not here today, I understand. BROWN: I'd love nothing better than to participate in tryin' to solve the Florida/Michigan issue. And I think the only way that I could effectively do that, I'd have to be perceived as potentially supportive--of either one of them. They'd have to be interested in having me as part of their team. SCHNUR: And as, and as a Republican, there is nothing I would like to see more than the Democratic party in such a situation in Denver where they needed the likes of Willie Brown to come in and help them solve this mess. (LAUGHTER) BRANCACCIO: Alright, Gentlemen. Thank you very much. Dan Schnur is a veteran of many Republican campaigns, and now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Southern California. Willie Brown, a legendary California politician. Used to be the Mayor of this city, San Francisco. And is author of the new biography, Basic Brown; My Life And Our Times. SCHNUR: Thank you David. BROWN: Thank you David. BRANCACCIO: The bloggers are buzzing with predictions about the next chapter in this election drama. Our online team has collected the best of the best --the Democracy Tools page brings you the latest comments from all corners of the Blogosphere. And you'll find a lot of other tools and information to keep you ahead of the political headlines. It's all on our website. And that's it for NOW. From San Francisco, I'm David Brancaccio. We'll see you next week. |
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