Shift Control: A Message for the Future

May, 1999

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As a futurist, I'm often asked what the key to the coming era will be. Is there a single idea that will shape the coming years in a way that will touch all our lives?

While I avoid forecasting the future, I have stumbled across an insight that may have a significant long-term impact. To get a sense of what it is, just look at the keyboard on your computer. Nestled above each other are two keys that, together, read: "Shift Control."

That's it. I think this is the message that will underlie the coming years in a profound way; and I'm not the only one who feels this way. In a speech given in Ottawa last October, IBM Chairman Lou Gerstner said: "The rise of these powerful networks are about many things, but most fundamentally it's about a transfer of control. Control of this medium, which was born in government and academia, has been tacitly transferred into the hands of tens of millions, soon to be hundreds of millions, of users worldwide. And the momentum is irresistible." (http://www.ibm.com/lvg/oecd.phtml)

In other words, Gerstner believes (as do I) that the widespread proliferation of Internet access will shift control in all aspects of commerce, education, recreation, and government. As the number of Internet-ready computers continues to grow in our homes, information access shifts from content that is "pushed" at us by networks, to information that we can "pull" from resources spread all over the world. The idea that informational media are under the control of any particular centralized power is becoming obsolete in the face of the proliferation of alternative channels of communication opened up by the Web.

Nowhere has this been more decisively demonstrated than in an event that took place on March 24, 1999. At 2:50 AM, two technical operatives of the Yugoslav Federal Telecommunications Ministry, backed by about ten policemen, entered the premises of Radio B92, the main independent radio station for Belgrade, and the dominant provider of non-government-provided news for the region. The staff of the station was told to immediately stop all broadcasts, to disconnect their computers and telephones, and to turn over the transmitting equipment. When the station's editor-in-chief, Verna Matic, entered the station, he was immediately arrested and held for eight hours.

In the past, such an act would have caused the silencing of an independent voice. In this case, control was shifted instead.

Within minutes, Radio B92 was back in operation, using RealAudio (http://www.real.com) to stream live content to the world at large through Radio B92's Web site (http://www.b92.net). Other radio stations throughout the world (including BBC) were then able to pick up the audio feed and re-transmit it from transmitters outside the country. While I'm sure the local government would have loved to shut down the Web site, Radio B92's site is hosted by XS4ALL ( http://www.xs4all.nl) in the Netherlands, a country in which the Yugoslav police have little clout. As for the location of the local source in Belgrade, the broadcasts are probably being made from moveable sites, perhaps from basement studios hidden throughout the city. Short of closing all telecommunications from Belgrade to the rest of the world, it is hard to imagine how Radio B92's Web operation could be shut down.

The attempt to stifle B92 had an interesting impact. Instead of shutting the station down, the plight of this station was brought to the attention of the rest of the world, and now millions of Web users all over the planet have access to their broadcasts. Geographically, their reach exceeds that of any traditional radio station. So, instead of shutting the station down, a repressive government policy resulted in an expansion of the station's reach.

Assuming that the next step would be to conduct a house-to-house search looking for computers, there is even a solution for this.

Stanford Computer Science Professor Vaughn Pratt has developed the world's smallest operational Web server. You can access it at http://wearables.stanford.edu/. This matchbox-sized device contains a 486 processor running at 66MHz with 16MB of RAM and 16 MB of flash ROM running Linux and the Boa Web server software. The complete server is so small it could be hidden behind a switch plate in a wall where it could connect to a power supply and a telephone line. Nothing would be visible from the outside. By the way, complete directions for building a server like this on your own can be found at the site!

When IBM's Lou Gerstner talked about the transfer of control caused by networks, even he might not have envisioned the impact of b92.net. Although the revolution caused by networks is still in its infancy, the effects of this revolution are already transforming the structure of how we receive and interact with information. The general public has access to information from all over the world and can also disseminate information on a global scale. Centralized governing of information is already receding from the hands of the few in government and academia and shifting to the hands of the public with Internet access. As educators, we must consider the opportunities and effects of the coming network revolution and accept the responsibilities that fall on our shoulders.

What will happen as the number of wired students increases in our elementary schools by a factor of seven in the next few years (as forecasted by Jupiter Communications)? It is already the case that computers are in more than half of America's homes, and most of these have some sort of network access. Is our educational establishment considering a world in which most students have the Library of Congress in their homes?

With the shift in control of information, educators need to shift the focus in classrooms from the teacher as the fountain of all knowledge to a student-centered approach where the teacher is facilitating how students interact with the varied information resources at their disposal. Developing student skills in critical thinking and message analysis, helping them know where they can find answers to their questions, and showing them how they can make positive contributions to our worldwide information exchange should be our top educational priorities. It is time to re-evaluate our connection to the top-down hierarchy of textbooks and lockstep curriculum and envision new roles for students and teachers. Learning can happen in and out of school—anywhere, anytime.

Shift control is happening; get used to it. Embrace it.

Copyright, © 1999, Thornburg Center. All Rights Reserved.