Chances Are - Part 2 - It's a Mystery to Me
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Objective - Part 2
Students will be able to name all of the possible outcomes of a given event and
predict the likelihood of an event occurring based on a data set.
Overview of the Lesson
Students extend their understanding of basic probability concepts as they learn to
name all of the possible outcomes of an event as well as ways to express the
likelihood of such an event occurring. Students use large number cubes and
oversized playing cards as they explore ways to express probability. These ways
include ratios such as one out of four or 1/4. Computer software that simulates the
rolling of a number cube 1,000 times in a few seconds is used to stimulate student
inquiry. Students are then actively engaged in a probability experiment where they
must collect, organize, display, and interpret data concerning thirty spins on a
"mystery spinner." At the conclusion of the lesson, students are given
opportunities to share their data displays with others and encourage classmates to
predict what their "mystery spinner" might look like based on the data collected.
Students then compare their predictions with the actual spinner.