Q: You wrote this past weekend that voter anger
might have an impact on the Congressional races of 2006.
Can you identify a few races that you and your colleagues
are paying attention to that might illustrate how American
voters are feeling? What impact might the recent low
approval ratings of the president have on those races?
There are a number of places that will be closely watched
next year. One is the Pennsylvania Senate race that
pits Republican Sen. Rick Santorum against Democrat
Robert Casey Jr.. Santorum is one of the most conservative
members of Congress and a member of the leadership,
but he is in serious trouble in a state that both John
F. Kerry and Al Gore carried over President Bush.
Another Senate race of significance is in Tennessee,
where Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is retiring.
This has been a tough state generally for the Democrats
in recent years (the exception to that is that Tennessee
elected a Democratic governor, Phil Bredesen, in 2002
and he’s in good shape). Democrats believe they have
a chance to take this seat away from the Republicans.
Watch Ohio, where Republican Sen. Mike DeWine faces
a tough reelection campaign. President Bush’s approval
ratings have dropped significantly there, as elsewhere,
since last year’s election and Republican Gov. Bob Taft
is the most unpopular governor in the nation. Democrats
have a spirited primary shaping up between Rep. Sherrod
Brown and Paul Hackett, the Iraq war veteran who came
close to winning a special House election last spring.
In House races, watch Colorado’s 7th District in the
Denver suburbs. Four years ago this was the closest
House race in the country, with Republican Bob Beauprez
winning by 121 votes. He is now running for governor,
so the open-seat contest will be very competitive. There
are two Republicans from Connecticut who could be in
trouble if things remain sour for the GOP. They are
Reps. Chris Shays and Rob Simmons. In New Mexico, Republican
Rep. Heather Wilson has drawn a tough opponent, state
attorney general Patricia Madrid.
There are some Democratic seats in jeopardy as well.
Republicans see the retirement of Democratic Sen. Mark
Dayton of Minnesota as an opportunity to pick up a seat.
Rep. Katherine Harris, best known for the role she played
in the Bush v Gore recount in Florida when she was secretary
of state, hopes to knock off Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
The party establishment did not favor her candidacy,
but she could give Nelson a race.
Q: Karl Rove is considered the "chief architect"
of the Bush presidency. How has the CIA leak investigation
affected his role in the administration and his ability
to be the president's political strategist?
Karl Rove remains under investigation by special prosecutor
Patrick Fitzgerald, so until his legal situation is
resolved, he will be both distracted and the focus of
speculation about his effectiveness. He has a long relationship
with the president and his allies say he retains the
president’s confidence. Rove has been one of the most
effective political strategists in either party in many
years, and he has been invaluable to the Bush presidency.
But there are questions about his future effectiveness,
given the role he played in the CIA leak case (even
if Fitzgerald does not indict him). The Washington Post
published a story recently saying that even some administration
officials are saying privately that he may be compromised
by all of this. Events will have to play out before
there’s a definitive conclusion.
Q: The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated
that despite the troubles of the president and weakened
standing of Congressional Republicans, the Democrats
still don't offer a strong leaders or a clear direction
in the minds of Americans. Why haven't Democrats able
to improve their standing and who among the Democrats
might be able to help make that change?
The poll confirmed what a number of Post reporters
heard while they were out around the country in late
October talking to voters and politicians. President
Bush is unpopular but the Democrats have not recovered
from the defeats they suffered in 2002 and 2004. Even
people who identify themselves as Democratic voters
don’t see much they admire about the Democrats.
One question we asked in the poll was whether people
approved of the job Republicans and Democrats in Congress
were doing. Just 35 percent approved of how Republicans
were doing their job, but only 41 percent approved of
the way Democrats were doing their job. On another question,
we asked people their perceptions of the two parties
on ethical matters. Sixteen percent said Democrats were
better than Republicans, 12 percent said Republicans
were better than Democrats and 71 percent said there
was not much difference between the two. Just whom Democrats
can turn to for help is an open question.
In the Post-ABC News poll, 51 percent said Republicans
have strong leaders, but only 35 percent said the same
of the Democrats. Voters had trouble naming Democrats
they saw as attractive leaders. However, there were
a few findings in the poll that were positive for the
Democrats. More people trust Democrats to handle the
biggest problems facing the country and about three
in five said the Democrats were more open to the ideas
of political moderates. But Democrats have a long way
to go before people will credit them with having a clear
agenda that presents an alternative to Bush and the
Republicans in Congress.
Q: The centrist Democrats and Republicans played
key roles in President Bush's judicial nominations.
What have they been saying about Judge Alito? What's
the prospect of his confirmation? And if Democrats try
to filibuster the nomination, will they look like obstructionists
or that they are standing on principle?
Judge Alito’s nomination looks in better shape today
than it did when the president announced it. He has
made a positive impression while meeting with senators
in both parties, a number of whom have said he has good
qualifications and has answered their questions far
better than Harriet Miers did when she was working Capitol
Hill. His judicious comments on Roe v Wade and on the
issue of precedent appear to have reassured some Democrats.
Judge Alito likely will draw more opposition than Chief
Justice John Roberts, who had only 22 senators vote
against him, but it’s far from clear that the major
war that many predicted will take place. Liberal constituency
groups have announced their opposition, but senators
are waiting and watching. At the time of the Alito nomination,
Democrats declined to rule out a filibuster, but there
seems to be a decreasing appetite for such a move. Sen.
Joseph Biden of Delaware, a senior Democrat on the Judiciary
Committee, said recently he doubted his party would
filibuster. There’s a clear risk, particularly if there
is no way to block the nomination, and it’s not clear
today that Democratic leaders want to take the gamble.