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Dan Balz
November 10, 2005

Dan Balz is national political correspondent at The Washington Post. He joined the paper in 1978 and has been involved in the paper’s political coverage as a reporter or editor for the past 27 years. (Read Dan Balz's bio)

Q: You wrote this past weekend that voter anger might have an impact on the Congressional races of 2006. Can you identify a few races that you and your colleagues are paying attention to that might illustrate how American voters are feeling? What impact might the recent low approval ratings of the president have on those races?

There are a number of places that will be closely watched next year. One is the Pennsylvania Senate race that pits Republican Sen. Rick Santorum against Democrat Robert Casey Jr.. Santorum is one of the most conservative members of Congress and a member of the leadership, but he is in serious trouble in a state that both John F. Kerry and Al Gore carried over President Bush.

Another Senate race of significance is in Tennessee, where Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is retiring. This has been a tough state generally for the Democrats in recent years (the exception to that is that Tennessee elected a Democratic governor, Phil Bredesen, in 2002 and he’s in good shape). Democrats believe they have a chance to take this seat away from the Republicans.

Watch Ohio, where Republican Sen. Mike DeWine faces a tough reelection campaign. President Bush’s approval ratings have dropped significantly there, as elsewhere, since last year’s election and Republican Gov. Bob Taft is the most unpopular governor in the nation. Democrats have a spirited primary shaping up between Rep. Sherrod Brown and Paul Hackett, the Iraq war veteran who came close to winning a special House election last spring.

In House races, watch Colorado’s 7th District in the Denver suburbs. Four years ago this was the closest House race in the country, with Republican Bob Beauprez winning by 121 votes. He is now running for governor, so the open-seat contest will be very competitive. There are two Republicans from Connecticut who could be in trouble if things remain sour for the GOP. They are Reps. Chris Shays and Rob Simmons. In New Mexico, Republican Rep. Heather Wilson has drawn a tough opponent, state attorney general Patricia Madrid.

There are some Democratic seats in jeopardy as well. Republicans see the retirement of Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton of Minnesota as an opportunity to pick up a seat. Rep. Katherine Harris, best known for the role she played in the Bush v Gore recount in Florida when she was secretary of state, hopes to knock off Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. The party establishment did not favor her candidacy, but she could give Nelson a race.

Q: Karl Rove is considered the "chief architect" of the Bush presidency. How has the CIA leak investigation affected his role in the administration and his ability to be the president's political strategist?

Karl Rove remains under investigation by special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, so until his legal situation is resolved, he will be both distracted and the focus of speculation about his effectiveness. He has a long relationship with the president and his allies say he retains the president’s confidence. Rove has been one of the most effective political strategists in either party in many years, and he has been invaluable to the Bush presidency. But there are questions about his future effectiveness, given the role he played in the CIA leak case (even if Fitzgerald does not indict him). The Washington Post published a story recently saying that even some administration officials are saying privately that he may be compromised by all of this. Events will have to play out before there’s a definitive conclusion.

Q: The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated that despite the troubles of the president and weakened standing of Congressional Republicans, the Democrats still don't offer a strong leaders or a clear direction in the minds of Americans. Why haven't Democrats able to improve their standing and who among the Democrats might be able to help make that change?

The poll confirmed what a number of Post reporters heard while they were out around the country in late October talking to voters and politicians. President Bush is unpopular but the Democrats have not recovered from the defeats they suffered in 2002 and 2004. Even people who identify themselves as Democratic voters don’t see much they admire about the Democrats.

One question we asked in the poll was whether people approved of the job Republicans and Democrats in Congress were doing. Just 35 percent approved of how Republicans were doing their job, but only 41 percent approved of the way Democrats were doing their job. On another question, we asked people their perceptions of the two parties on ethical matters. Sixteen percent said Democrats were better than Republicans, 12 percent said Republicans were better than Democrats and 71 percent said there was not much difference between the two. Just whom Democrats can turn to for help is an open question.

In the Post-ABC News poll, 51 percent said Republicans have strong leaders, but only 35 percent said the same of the Democrats. Voters had trouble naming Democrats they saw as attractive leaders. However, there were a few findings in the poll that were positive for the Democrats. More people trust Democrats to handle the biggest problems facing the country and about three in five said the Democrats were more open to the ideas of political moderates. But Democrats have a long way to go before people will credit them with having a clear agenda that presents an alternative to Bush and the Republicans in Congress.

Q: The centrist Democrats and Republicans played key roles in President Bush's judicial nominations. What have they been saying about Judge Alito? What's the prospect of his confirmation? And if Democrats try to filibuster the nomination, will they look like obstructionists or that they are standing on principle?

Judge Alito’s nomination looks in better shape today than it did when the president announced it. He has made a positive impression while meeting with senators in both parties, a number of whom have said he has good qualifications and has answered their questions far better than Harriet Miers did when she was working Capitol Hill. His judicious comments on Roe v Wade and on the issue of precedent appear to have reassured some Democrats.

Judge Alito likely will draw more opposition than Chief Justice John Roberts, who had only 22 senators vote against him, but it’s far from clear that the major war that many predicted will take place. Liberal constituency groups have announced their opposition, but senators are waiting and watching. At the time of the Alito nomination, Democrats declined to rule out a filibuster, but there seems to be a decreasing appetite for such a move. Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, a senior Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, said recently he doubted his party would filibuster. There’s a clear risk, particularly if there is no way to block the nomination, and it’s not clear today that Democratic leaders want to take the gamble.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previous Columns

Washington Week panelists open their notebooks and give you the inside scoop.

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