
Jeanne Cummings joined the Wall Street Journal's
Washington Bureau in 1997 as a political reporter.
During her career, Ms. Cummings has reported on numerous
statewide races, congressional contests, and three
presidential campaigns. Read
Jeanne Cummings' bio
Q: We've heard a lot about 527 groups during this
campaign season. Did 527s exist in 2000? How has their
role in this election cycle changed since then? Is
there any expectation that regulation of these groups
may change by 2004?
The 527 section of the tax code has been around for
a long time and applies to many types of political
committees, including the two national party committees
and most candidate committees. What's new this year
is the rise of partisan 527 committee that conduct
some of the same activities as party committees --
advertising and voter turnout -- but are not officially
aligned with either party. The Federal Election Commission
already is considering some regulations that would
force the groups to change the way they spend their
money on voter turnout operations. Reformers are unhappy
with that small step and have introduced legislation
that would force the groups to follow the same rules
as the parties and candidates. However, prospects
for passage of another major campaign finance reform
bill are slim and reformers will likely have to take
their arguments to court.
Q: The public often hears about the power of money
in politics, especially when it comes in the form
of large donations from wealthy individuals. Are there
any powerful grass-roots groups that depend largely
on the support of small-money donors? Was the short-term
success of the Howard Dean campaign an indication
of what's possible for "the little guy" or did that
campaign benefit from big donors, too?
The Dean campaign, coming on the heels of Republican
John McCain successful Internet fundraising in 2000,
has shown a new way for motivated small donors to
impact the political process.
MoveOn.org, a liberal group, also has been on the
cutting edge of mobilizing lots of small donors to
work on projects with big impact. Its political advertising
project this year was boosted by an early donation
of about $5 million from wealthy backers, but MoveOn
was first established during the Clinton Administration
and made a name for itself by conducting online petition
drives and mailings to Capitol Hill on issues important
to its millions of small donor members. Most of its
advertising today is being paid for with small online
donations.
Q: How do the campaigns make their spending decisions
as they eye campaign opportunities across the nation?
Are long-shot states completely ignored in favor of
greater investment in battleground states? What are
some of the most expensive states in which to campaign?
Do politicians consider any region a particular "best
buy" or great bargain when it comes to comparing dollars
to potential payoff?
The campaign's spending decisions are based on their
strategy for winning enough Electoral College votes
to take the White House. Some states that vote along
predictable partisan lines are ignored completely,
and that won't change. Among the most expensive battleground
states are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The bargain
states are the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico,
which also explains why so many of the smaller 527
groups buy ads in those states.
Q:The state of Colorado is considering a measure
that would change their "winner-take-all" presidential
electoral vote system to a proportional allocation
method. What would be the impact on campaigning and
campaign spending if more states made this switch?
If many states passed such initiatives, it would
significantly expand the campaign boundaries because
opportunities to pick up Electoral College votes would
abound. Even states like California would suddenly
be in play since Republicans could count on pocketing
at least some of the heavily Democratic states Electoral
College votes.
Q: How did the great recount of 2000 change campaign
planning? What are campaign managers budgeting for
and watching out for now that they may not have considered
four years ago?
Both are raising millions of dollars to pay for possible
recount fights. Also, they are much more deliberate
in their battleground strategy. John Kerry, for instance,
stopped advertising in some states to be sure he would
have enough to finish strong in both Ohio and Florida.
Four years ago, Al Gore had to shift resources from
Ohio to Florida in the final weeks because he was
running out of money.