Q: What is the focus of each campaign for these
final two weeks of the election? Are there really
undecided voters left out there to be swayed or is
it more important to inspire the respective bases
to get out and vote? How different are the strategies
of the Kerry and Bush camps?
Now that the debates are over, and there are few
opportunities left for big national message moments,
the focus for each of the campaigns will be the same:
finding their voters and making sure they vote. Most
polls, including ours at TIME Magazine, show that
the number of truly undecided voters is tiny -- as
few as 3% of likely voters. So that means victory
is likely to go to the side that does the best job
of getting their own loyalists to the polls.
The Democrats, who have long been better than the
Republicans at this ground game, are pouring more
resources into it than they ever have -- but so are
the Republicans. Both sides have built amazing databases
about millions of voters, often by sending their workers
door to door with Palm Pilots to collect information
about people, their lives and their interests. But
they also understand that what will matter most is
the most old-fashioned kind of politics there is:
personal contact. And the effort goes well beyond
the political parties themselves. Not only is the
Kerry campaign coordinating a massive effort with
the Democratic National Committee, but Democratic-leaning
outside organizations are also focusing heavily on
registering Democratic voters, keeping them motivated,
getting them to vote early where they can and literally
hauling them to the polls on election day if they
have to. One of those organizations, America Coming
Together, is spending a mind-blowing $125 million
on such operations in the battleground states.
The Republicans, who cruised into the 2000 election
expecting a comfortable victory and then got a shock
on election day, also understand they can no longer
neglect this aspect of the campaign. The 2002 elections
-- in which, for instance, they pulled off a big surprise
by unseating a Democratic governor and senator in
Georgia -- showed that they, too, have figured out
how to reach their voters and get them to the polls.
Their big push will come in the final 72 hours of
the campaign.
Q: From the poll numbers and reporting, which
"blue states" do you see President having the best
chance of winning and which "red states" favor Senator
Kerry? What are the reasons behind the change?
This is a very, very tricky question, because the
closer we get to election day, the less reliable and
more confusing the polls seem to get. (As I am writing
this, the Washington Post is telling me that President
Bush's job approval -- that all important measure
for an incumbent President-- is a healthy 54%, and
the New York Times is saying he's on political life
support at 44%.) In 2000, some of the polls in Ohio
going into election day showed Bush winning by as
many as 14 points, but thanks to an unpredicted Democratic
turnout surge, he won by less than 3 points.
What does seem fairly safe to say is that the battleground
map is shrinking. A few months ago, we were all talking
about almost 20 states being "in play." Now, the number
looks more like 10. The conventional wisdom, for what
it's worth, suggests that political pros will be most
closely watching three states on election night: Ohio,
Pennsylvania and Florida. Win two of them, the betting
is, and you win the White House. But at the moment,
I wouldn't predict the outcome in any of them.
Q: Why is this year's election often called "the
most important election of our lifetime?" What presidential
race in the past is the closest analogy to this one?
That will be easier to answer once we know who wins,
although there is much about this election that seems
very unique to me. Consider how, only four years ago,
Ralph Nader was getting traction with the argument
that there really wasn't much difference between the
two candidates. Nobody is saying that now.
If Kerry wins, comparisons will be drawn to the election
of 1980, when the country was very distressed about
where Jimmy Carter was taking it, and made a big bet
on a candidate whom voters didn't begin feeling truly
comfortable with until the debates. If it's Bush,
it would seem very much like the election of 1988,
where the country -- whatever its misgivings about
the party in power -- picked the status quo over a
Massachusetts liberal who never really connected with
voters.
Q: Can you identify one or two questions that
you wish had been asked of either President Bush or
Senator Kerry in the debates?
I thought the moderators did a terrific job of asking
the questions that needed to be asked. What I wish
could have happened, though, is the kind of followup
that wasn't allowed in the rules. In the last debate,
for instance, President Bush claimed that he had never
said he was unconcerned about Osama bin Laden; there
are at least two quotes that you could have pointed
to in a followup that would have shown him saying
precisely that. The same is true of Vice President
Cheney's assertion that he had never linked al Qaeda
to Saddam Hussein. I would also have liked to see
some additional followup on Senator Kerry's Senate
record, which constitutes most of his adult life,
and is still pretty vague in the minds of most voters.
To bolster his credentials as a fiscal conservative,
for instance, Kerry constantly brags about having
been an original sponsor of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings
bill; that piece of legislation was in fact nothing
more than a gimmick that avoided genuine choices.