Washington Week: Student Voices (O)

Fewer hurricanes expected this summer
By: Melissa Filbin
The Battalion (Texas A&M)
06/01/2006

(U-WIRE) COLLEGE STATION, Texas — Elizabeth Lavender-Levi said that, in the Texas summer heat, she and her friends would walk from class discussing how it felt like the soles of their shoes were melting into the concrete.

"The heat made me delusional and quite possibly allowed others to question my acceptance to A&M after the 'touch test,'" said Lavender-Levi, Texas A&M Class of 2005. "We took turns saying where we thought the hottest spot of the black concrete was and made the other touch it to see if third degree burns were obtained."

Lavender-Levi said that, although the 'touch test' results came back negative, she still would still defend the idea of the soles of her shoes melting.

"I am not a fan of the hot weather," she said. "I wish they could turn the air conditioner on outside."

Lavender-Levi will not get her wish this summer, which begins Thursday.

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, Texas will experience hotter and drier weather than normal for the next three months.

Benjamin Giese, an associate professor of climate, said many factors play into the Texas climate, including El Nino in winter months, the drought cycle, global warming and decade-to-decade climate variations.

"Our overall climate is not very strongly controlled by El Nino in the summertime, but there is one big exception — El Nino has a strong influence on hurricanes," Giese said. "During El Nino years we have very few Atlantic hurricanes; During La Nina years we have a lot of hurricanes."

Giese predicted this year will not be an El Nino or a La Nina year.

"It is probably going to be neutral," he said. "However, El Nino is only one of the factors that control hurricanes."

Strong hurricanes may still occur this year, he said, and there is recent evidence that global warming influences storm development.

Giese said there is a strong connection between hurricanes, El Nino and decade-to-decade climate variability.

In the 1930s - the Dust Bowl years, where there was a period of drought throughout much of the southwest United States — there were few El Ninos, which usually indicates few hurricanes. However, many hurricane records broken during the 2005 hurricane season were set during those years.

"These three things are all connected to each other," Giese said. "The result is that they can influence the climate, including drought."

A recent study conducted by scientists at the universities of Utah and Washington found that jet stream shifts might also cause areas in Texas to become even drier.

The study, reported Friday in the journal Science, showed significant temperature changes in the atmosphere in the subtropical regions both north and south of the equator, causing desert and dry areas to move poleward. The movement will affect the American Southwest, Southern Australia and the Mediterranean basin — areas where drought is already a problem.

While Giese said he cannot predict whether there will be a drought in Texas during the summer, he did say it was a possibility.

"If it happened in the past (in the 1930s), it will happen in the future," he said.

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