Washington Week: Student Voices (O)

COLUMN: November surprise: GOP will keep the House
By Eric Rodawig
The Hoya (Georgetown)
11/03/2006

(U-WIRE) WASHINGTON — The last time our country had an election, I correctly predicted all of the swing states except Wisconsin and all of the close Senate races but Alaska (Off the Track, at The Poles, The Hoya, Oct. 29, 2004, A3). I'll try to do better this time around. And don't worry — I've put my money where my mouth is.

To start, the Democrats are not going to take back either the House or the Senate. Some pundits compare this year to the Republican Revolution of 1994, and that couldn't be further from the truth. In 1994, Republicans picked up 54 seats in the House, eight seats in the Senate and 12 governorships. Many factors led to this tremendous gain, almost none of which apply in 2006.

When the Republicans took power in Washington in 1994, they did so thanks to the strength of the "Contract With America," a promise to voters about what the Republicans were going to do if they became the majority. The only coherent promise the Democrats have offered this fall is that they're going to raise your taxes, and that you'll be sorry if you're caught between Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her interior decorator if she somehow becomes Screecher of the House.

Also, the economy — the single most important indicator for elections — is significantly better than it was in 1994. Gas prices, which have been highly correlated with President Bush's approval rating, are down in recent weeks. The number of congressional seats in play is much smaller. And Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) refuses to shut his mouth. ABC News quoted an unnamed Democratic congressman after Kerry's latest insult of our troops on Tuesday, "I guess Kerry wasn't content blowing 2004, now he wants to blow 2006, too."

But while Republicans are going to retain control of Congress, they are not going to do it by a very comfortable margin. The GOP has made several mistakes during this election cycle, and hopefully this scare will be enough to get it back on track.

Democrats Harold Ford, Jr. (Tenn.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) are in neck and neck races — for the creepiest looking person to lose a Senate election this cycle. I don't know which is worse, Tester's buzz cut, or Ford's past relationship with a former Hoya sex columnist. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) has built a solid lead in the polls, and Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) is somehow going to limp into his fourth and final term. Polls indicating a Tester lead are not reflecting folks too polite to mention that they are, in fact, voting for Burns.

Since you can't trust New Jersey to do anything right, I'm unfortunately giving the "'Frank & Ernest' Senator Krupt Award" to Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.). I'd rather be pleasantly surprised and wrong, though, if Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. is somehow able to pull this race out.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) has been in trouble for several months now, and I can't see how he can possibly win. I'm also disappointed Lynn Swann (R) isn't polling closer versus Gov. Ed Rendell (D); although Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler, is still doing much better than the current Steelers.

I'm not really worried that Republicans-In-Name-Only Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Lincoln Chaffee (R.I.) are headed back to the private sector. We'll take Ohio back in six years when the GOP can replace wacko liberal Sherrod Brown (D) with a real Republican.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) clearly has enough "Joementum" in Connecticut to prevent challenger Ned Lamont (D-Daily Kos) from having to fight Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) on the Senate floor to see who can talk the longest without mentioning more than one issue.

Sens. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) and George Allen (R-Va.) have survived a rough election season and will keep their seats. Talent is a terrific person, and Allen, well, doesn't write about underage sex — unlike his opponent, Republican traitor Jim Webb, who served under the Reagan administration and later switched parties.

Republican challengers Mike McGavick (Wash.) and Mike Bouchard (Mich.) probably would have done much better in 2002 or 2004. Unfortunately, this isn't the year for Republicans to take out incumbent Democratic senators. Mark Kennedy (R-Minn.) is also probably done for his state's open seat, which is disappointing since the Twin Cities were chosen to play host to the 2008 Republican National Convention.

My final Senate prediction leaves the Republicans with not 51, but 52 seats. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R-Md.) is going to pull off an upset of Rep. Ben Cardin (D). The Washington Post's shocking endorsement of Republican Gov. Bob Erlich is the latest piece of the puzzle to fall into place for the Maryland GOP.

Steele, an African American, has suffered several racial attacks from Democrats during the campaign, including an accusation of "slavishly supporting the Republican Party" from high-ranking Congressman Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). Also, the state Democratic Party basically swept aside former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume after a closer than expected primary. These issues will allow Steele to attract enough of the generally Democratic African American vote and give the GOP a Senate pickup in Maryland.

Now, let's get this election over with so we can start speculating about which Republican is going to take out Hillary in 2008. I promise to kick that off that next week.

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