Washington Week: Student Voices (O)

Report confirms global warming fears
By Randi Bernfeld
Independent Florida Alligator (U. Florida)
02/05/2007

(U-WIRE) GAINESVILLE, Fla. — According to a report on climate change released Friday, global warming is true, and human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, is very likely the driving force.

The 21-page report, written by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is the first volume of the "Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007."

The panel consists of roughly 1,250 expert researchers who study peer-reviewed and scientific documents to distill the information relevant to understand the causes of global warming, as well as the effects the heat-up is having on that planet and the options for mitigation and adaptation.

The report stated that by the year 2100, temperatures likely will rise 3.5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit, causing critical water shortages, extreme weather patterns and glacier shrinkage.

University of Florida botany professor Steven Mulkey said the community should regard these findings as facts.

"The issue of global warming is not a balanced argument," said Mulkey. "Our climate is changing at a drastic rate. Global warming is as real as a heart attack."

To add to the credibility of this report, last year was the warmest in the contiguous United States in more than a century, and 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record.

The report also stated that by 2075, sea levels could rise from 2 to 7 feet, causing coastal flooding to sweep about 7 million homes.

Mulkey said this will have dire consequences for Floridians because a mere 9-inch sea rise will cause flooding along the coastlines.

He and other experts also predict that more intense hurricanes could strike the state's coasts, where 80 percent of the population resides.

"If we postpone or avoid planning for this," Mulkey said, "then there will be irretrievable losses of our natural resources and a poorer quality of life."

The panel on climate change was created by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program in 1988.

Since its creation, the panel has guided policy-makers globally on the impact of climate change.

In 1995, the panel released its second report stating that humans had an influence in global warming. Following this assessment, the Kyoto Protocol was amended in 1997.

This treaty assigns mandatory targets to reduce members' greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent, compared to the year 1990. Kyoto works like a "cap-and-trade" program that gives companies a cap on the amount of pollution that can be emitted. Those able to beat the limits can sell allowances on the open market to other companies not yet in compliance.

Currently, 169 nations have ratified the treaty. Australia and the United States have signed the treaty but refuse to ratify it.

Although President George W. Bush has been criticized for not ratifying Kyoto and for failing to utter the words "global warming" in his State of the Union address last month, he admitted that warming climates are a fact.

Bush also said that Congress is working on a series of measures to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 percent in 10 years. One of these plans includes a push for the use of alternative fuels like ethanol to reduce a reliance on foreign oil.

Ethanol can be produced in different ways, such as burning sugar cane and switch grass. Thus far, corn has been the most widely used in producing ethanol, at about $2 per gallon.

Lonnie O. Ingram, the director of the Florida Center for Renewable Chemicals and Fuels, said corn ethanol has not had a big impact on the environment. He said that in 2005, corn ethanol use in the United States reduced carbon dioxide emissions by roughly 7.8 million tons, which is equal to removing the annual emissions of more than 1 million cars. That's less than 3 percent of the nation's automobiles, he said.

Ingram said scientists could use other products to make more ethanol, which will also reduce the world's petroleum intake. For example, he invented a bug made from bacteria that eats wood and other plant material to make ethanol.

"Imagine taking this desk," he said, banging his knuckles on the mahogany desktop, "breaking it down and using it to fuel your car."

Assistant UF professor Ted Schuur said fuel-efficient cars are not enough of a solution.

"Reducing atmospheric carbon is a good idea, but the government needs to consider all the other climate-forcing factors that may be changing at the same time," he said.

Later this year, the panel of climate change will release the full science volume, which will include more detailed information. It will also release a report about how people can adapt to the heat-up and another report on ways to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

"People think they had nothing to do with the drastic change in climate," said UF doctoral student Philip Kauth. "But we will be alive to see the serious consequences we have caused on our planet. Maybe next time we'll think twice about leaving our lights on."

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