Washington Week: Student Voices (O)

U. New Hampshire scientists present research on climate change
By Sean Bourbeau
The New Hampshire (U. New Hampshire)
03/23/2007

(U-WIRE) DURHAM, N.H. — On March 13, University of New Hampshire scientists presented their research on climate change during a conference for the Geological Society of America's 42nd annual northeastern meeting held from the March 12 to March 14, in which examples of atmospheric change as a result of changes occurring on Earth were presented. The session was titled "Atmospheric-Earth Surface Interactions: Solid, Liquid and Gas."

This session was one of 45 during GSA's Northeastern Section's annual meeting in which an estimated 750 scientists attended, according to the Campus Journal.

The research detailed the affects of climate change because of atmospheric conditions dealing with such topics as landslides, mercury levels in coastal southern New Hampshire, New England's climate in the next 100 years, and atmospheric influence of carbon dioxide levels in peatlands.

Today it is a common perception to believe that humans are changing the world's climate. This research may help provide evidence to support this belief.

Associate Professor Cameron Wake of UNH has done research that predicts the climate changes in the next 100 years here in New England.

Tom Huntington presented his data sating, "Most Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) were able to reproduce increases in the 20th century." An AOGCM is a general term that's used to describe a model that predicts environmental changes. Huntington said their effectiveness is dependent on how well they predicted the climate in the past.

Huntington said if we continue on the path of high emissions then we could see increases of up to three-and-a-half degrees Celsius in the next 100 years. "It may get to a point where Massachusetts can feel like North Carolina," he said about a high emissions future.

He continued by explaining that there will be an increase in precipitation, but because of the increase in warmth there will be less groundwater for drinking, showering etc.

In the summer months there will also be a lack of water. There has been a significant increase in droughts in the past 100 years, and "droughts will increase in the future," Huntington explained.

Steve Frolking, Associate Professor at UNH, presented a modeling study that made an effort to show how carbon dioxide retention in peatlands can negatively affect our climate.

It is traditionally thought that methane is more of a factor when discussing climate change. Frolking said, "Methane is more efficient as a greenhouse gas." This means that it is more effective at trapping the sun's radiation.

However, he said carbon dioxide has a longer lifetime in the atmosphere, which means if there's enough of it there it may have a larger impact on our climate than we think. This mean we may have to take a closer look at carbon dioxide emissions.

Frolking makes the point that with a high concentration of carbon dioxide emissions making their way into peat lands, a direct correlation between carbon dioxide on Earth and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, may be found.

With this information, scientists will be more informed and will be able to provide a more complete solution of climate control in the future.

It should be noted that it is a modeling study and, although it is based on real data, further testing must be done to find if what is occurring in the peatlands can be tied to atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.

Graduate Student Missy Smith presented research about the mercury levels of water and its connection to atmospheric mercury levels.

"Mercury can travel through rain," she said. It can come from as far as Chicago, Ill. This means a weather front that sweeps through an area of high mercury concentration like Chicago can bring the mercury through the rain to New Hampshire.

Mercury can change its form to be more mobile. It can transform to methyl mercury that makes its way into our environment through forms such as rain and can even make its way into our atmosphere.

This means that there is a mercury concern with the fish we eat. "There's a high concentration of mercury in fish tissue in New England," said Smith.

The effects of high levels of mercury ingestion on children are serious health concerns. It can cause major neurological damage and impair development according to the Environmental Protection Agency's Web site. Extreme doses in adults can cause similar neurological deficits.

A majority of this research is being conducted at Thompson Farm in Durham. It's still in its nascent stages, but you can expect more testing to be done that investigates how the mercury cycle functions said Smith.

Graduate student Ram Ray is an engineering student who provided research for predicting landslides using mathematical models.

"Landslides occur after dryness, the upper layers gets cracks and water soaks into the lower level creating high soil moisture below," said Ray.

This means the ground above has no solid ground to rest on, and, in effect, a landslide will occur.

His research was based off of data from NASA. He was able to measure the ground moisture through satellite photographs of the atmosphere.

The research implications for future landslides are profound if you take into account Wake's research. If droughts will be increasing in the future, the surface layer of soil will be very dry and cracked in many areas, which means when it does rain there could be an increased likelihood of landslides.

This possibility makes it that much more important for Ray's research. He hopes to be able to predict these landslides to prevent the hundreds of deaths that occur from landslides each year.

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