Washington Week: Student Voices (O)

COLUMN: French election may improve relations with U.S.
By Will Smith
The Oracle (U. South Florida)
04/26/2007

(U-WIRE) TAMPA, Fla. — This past week, France voted in the first round of its presidential election, sending the top two vote-getters to the second and final round to pick the successor to the aging and embattled President Jacques Chirac. Socialist candidate Segolène Royal and center-right politician Nicolas Sarkozy will face off May 6 to determine the winner in an election that has implications not just in France, but on our side of the pond as well.

France's politics are relevant because France and the United States have had a unique relationship since the days of Thomas Jefferson. Besides the obvious military connection with France helping America gain its independence from Britain in the 18th century and America helping France gain its independence from Germany in the 20th century, France and the United States are most importantly linked by the philosophical liberal tradition. The two nations' intellectuals agitated passionately for liberal democracy, which eventually began democracy in both nations as well as fostered a large transition to democracy worldwide in the last two centuries. Yet as of late, this relationship has been strained as our foreign policies clashed, most notably over Iraq (freedom fries, anyone?).

These strained relations may soon be on the mend, assuming Sarkozy, the leader of the first-round poll, maintains his first-round lead. Collecting more than 31 percent of the votes last week, Sarko, as the French press call him, will work to solidify his lead over Royal, the first serious female candidate for France's top job. Bold and temperamental, Sarko draws very similar comparisons to Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City. As minister of the interior under Chirac, he cracked down on petty crimes and illegal immigration — both festering problems in France.

To exacerbate France's social unrest, the economy is broken. With a permanent unemployed class hovering around 10 percent of the population and an embarrassing declining per capita GDP, France needs reform. If elected, Sarkozy will seek to repair France's economy by attempting to reduce the overall tax rate from 60 percent to 50 and to liberalize business restrictions and reduce economic obstacles. These economic reforms could shake up and stimulate the second-largest country in the European Union, complementing the impressive growth in neighboring England and Germany. Furthermore, Sarkozy would most likely amplify calls for a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

With regard to foreign policy, Sarkozy is an admirer of the United States and its market economy, and during his five-year tenure, cross-Atlantic relations could be rebuilt. This opportunity is further enhanced by the winding-down of the war in Iraq, which is responsible for much of the current tension. Indeed, as the collective world confronts Iran over nuclear weapons, it is vital that the two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council stand together against Ahmadinejad and his ilk. As I mentioned above, Sarkozy reminds me of the Republicans' leading presidential candidate, Rudy Giuliani. If both were to win their presidential elections, it is feasible that the men would draw France and America back to their historic friendship in time to challenge those who threaten the West.

Sarkozy and Royal will face off for a single debate on May 2, followed immediately by the national election on May 6. The bookmakers put the outcome at 54/46 in Sarkozy's favor. The math is straightforward: Sarkozy starts with 31.1 percent and will pick up votes from Le Pen's far-right supporters, bringing Sarkozy to 42 percent versus Royal's 25.8 percent. Both candidates hope to attract the 18.5 percent centrist votes from Francois Bayrou, of which Sarkozy needs less than half to reach the requisite majority for election. Expect to see him win, barring any drastic mistakes.

While both candidates may appear to move toward the center for the national election, Royal still advocates the welfare state and a paltry maximum 35-hour workweek while Sarkozy supports tax cuts and economic freedom. The French, in a rare display of electoral intelligence, will try to move away from the failed programs of European big government and instead join the dynamic growing economies of the 21st century. Prepare for a new relationship with our favorite claret-maker, and add "Sarko" to your list of new political buzzwords.

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