In 1995, the CIA issued a study of variables associated with the collapse of nations in the late 20th century. The goal was to better predict future threats to America's security and well-being. The single most effective predictor of collapse turned out to be a high infant mortality rate.
Since then, concern about public health problems and their impact on national security and international stability has grown. In 1996, a National Intelligence Estimate brought attention to the growing global threat of virulent infectious diseases that no longer respond to modern antibiotics.
President Bush, in the introduction to his administration's "National Security Strategy of the United States of America," notes the connection between poverty in developing countries and the security of the U.S.:
The events of September 11, 2001, taught us that weak states, like Afghanistan, can pose as great a danger to our national interests as strong states. Poverty does not make poor people into terrorists and murderers. Yet poverty, weak institutions, and corruption can make weak states vulnerable to terrorist networks and drug cartels within their borders.
The strategy itself speaks to the importance of development initiatives as a key component of international policy. It warns, however, that unwise allocation of development dollars is unlikely to make the United States more secure. "Decades of massive development assistance," it states, "have failed to spur economic growth in the poorest countries. Worse, development aid has often served to prop up failed policies, relieving the pressure for reform and perpetuating misery."
To remedy these problems, the strategy proposes several actions, including improving the effectiveness of the World Bank in raising living standards, insisting upon measurable results, increasing the amount of assistance provided through grants rather than loans, and, notably, securing public health.
