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MARGARET HOOVER: ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL MEN IN THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE IS PETER NAVARRO. TARIFFS, TRADE WARS, AND THE THREAT FROM CHINA. THIS WEEK, ON FIRING LINE.
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MARGARET HOOVER: UNTIL TWO YEARS AGO, HE WAS BEST KNOWN AS A CONTROVERSIAL ECONOMIST, AUTHOR AND FILMMAKER. THEN PETER NAVARRO JOINED THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ON THE VERY FIRST DAY. HIS OFFICIAL TITLE IS ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT, AND HE DIRECTS THE NEWLY CREATED WHITE HOUSE OFFICE FOR TRADE AND MANUFACTURING POLICY. NOW HE IS BEST KNOWN AS THE STRONGEST DEFENDER OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ESCALATING TRADE WAR WITH CHINA AND THE U.S. TARIFFS THAT ARE CHANGING RELATIONSHIPS WITH BOTH AMERICA’S ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES AROUND THE WORLD. PETER NAVARRO, WELCOME TO FIRING LINE. I’D LIKE TO BEGIN BY ASKING HOW YOU VIEW CHINA? AND I’M NOT TALKING ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION’S BROAD POLICIES, INDUSTRIAL POLICIES, TOWARD CHINA — I MEAN, HOW DOES PETER NAVARRO VIEW CHINA?
AND WHAT EMERGES IS A PICTURE OF ESSENTIALLY AN AUTHORITARIAN STATE FIRST OF ALL, NOT A DEMOCRACY MORE IMPORTANTLY FROM AN ECONOMIC VIEW A NONMARKET ECONOMY THAT USES ALL MANNER OF UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES SUBSIDIES BASICALLY TO ENGAGE IN WHAT HAS EMERGED I THINK ACCURATELY AS A DESCRIPTION OF PREDATORY BEHAVIOR IT’S PURELY A DEFENSE, IT’S NOT AN OFFENSE, IT’S DEFENSE AGAINST THAT PREDATION.
IT WAS NARRATED BY MARTIN SHEEN, AND IT REALLY ARTICULATES AN ECONOMIC VIEW OF CHINA’S ASCENDANCE AND I WANT TO SHOW A CLIP OF IT. CLIP PLAYS MARGARET HOOVER: ALL RIGHT. THE HARD WORKING PEOPLE OF CHINA, THE 1.4 BILLION PEOPLE OF CHINA, IT’S THE COMMUNIST CHINESE PARTY GOVERNMENT THAT BASICALLY ENGAGES IN THESE PREDATORY PRACTICES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. AND SO YOU HAVE, THERE’S THESE SIX STRATEGIES OF ECONOMIC AGGRESSION.THEY PROTECT THEIR MARKETS, THEY ATTACK GLOBAL MARKETS, THEY GO OUT AND TRY TO SECURE ALL THE RESOURCES ALL AROUND THE WORLD, WHETHER IT’S COBALT IN THE CONGO OR COPPER IN CHILE, THEY DOMINATE TRADITIONAL MANUFACTURING BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY AND THE LAST TWO, THEY HAVE TO DO WITH THE FUTURE, WHICH IS TO ACQUIRE OUR TECHNOLOGIES AND OUR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND USE THAT BASICALLY TO CAPTURE THE EMERGING INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE. THINGS LIKE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS. MARGARET HOOVER: THE VIEW YOU ESPOUSE IS A VIEW OF CHINA’S ESCALATION ECONOMICALLY AND HOW IT HAS IMPACTED AMERICAN MANUFACTURING AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. I MEAN THAT’S THE ROBUST ARGUMENT OF THE FILM AS I UNDERSTAND IT. PETER NAVARRO: FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY WANTS TO PRESERVE ITSELF. THAT’S LIKE NUMBER ONE. AND MISSILES AND THE LIKE, A LOT FASTER THAN ANYBODY IN THE WORLD, AND REGRETTABLY A LOT OF THAT IS FINANCED BY THE AMERICAN CONSUMER AT WALMART. AGAINST THE KIND OF UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES THAT MANY COUNTRIES ENGAGE IN — MARGARET HOOVER: RIGHT MARGARET HOOVER: PRIMARY CONCERN IT SEEMS TO ME HAS BEEN IN THE LAST 15 YEARS A CONCERN ABOUT THE HOLLOWING OUT OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY TO CHINA, SPECIFICALLY THE MANUFACTURING BASE. AND I JUST WONDER TO WHAT EXTENT THE NATIONAL SECURITY ARGUMENT BUTTRESSES WHAT ARE SORT OF ECONOMICALLY, PROTECTIONIST POLICIES PETER NAVARRO: I LOVE THAT YOU FRAME IT THAT WAY BECAUSE ONE OF THE KEY PRINCIPLES OF THIS ADMINISTRATION AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ECONOMIC SECURITY IS NATIONAL SECURITY. THAT YOU DEMAND. MARGARET HOOVER: DOES THAT MEAN RETURNING MANUFACTURING JOBS TO THE UNITED STATES AND HAVING A STRONG NATIONAL DEFENSE INVESTMENT AS WELL AS FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN THE STEEL AND ALUMINUM SECTORS. WHAT DOES THAT DO? THAT INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY AND THEREFORE WAGES GO UP. DO YOU HAVE ON THE STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS ALREADY? BECAUSE WE HAVE THE BASIS FOR THE STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS IN 2002 AND 2003, AND I’VE HEARD YOU SAY THERE’S CONFLICTING DATA ABOUT IT. BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE OVERWHELMING DATA THAT THEY WERE INEFFECTIVE IN TERMS OF CREATING JOBS. IT MIGHT’VE WORKED. WORKERS ARE COMING IN. AND IT’S A BEAUTIFUL THING. MARGARET HOOVER: IT SOUNDS LIKE A NATIONAL SECURITY ARGUMENT FOR PROTECTIONISM. AND I’LL JUST TELL YOU DEFENSE SECRETARY MATTIS SAYS THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW BEFORE ANY OF THOSE SMELTERS STARTED BACK, BEFORE ANY OF THE COUNTRIES STARTED BACK IN THE STEEL OR ALUMINUM INDUSTRY 30 TIMES MORE CAPACITY THAN WAS REQUIRED FOR OUR NATIONAL DEFENSE. FROM OUR ALLIES. PETER NAVARRO: WELL, I’LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE. WHEN IT WAS THE FIRST GULF WAR. WE HAD A NUMBER OF OUR “FRIENDS” REFUSE TO PROVIDE US SHIPPING AT A TIME THAT WE NEEDED IT, WHICH STALLED OUR OPERATIONS FOR A LONG TIME. WHAT I’D LIKE YOU TO EXPLAIN TO US, IS HOW TARIFFS ARE GOING TO CONTAIN AN ASCENDANT CHINA ECONOMICALLY? OVER THERE. IT COMES BACK AND BUYS UP OUR ASSETS. PETER NAVARRO: TRADE DEFICITS THAT ARE CHRONIC AND PERSISTENT LIKE THE UNITED STATES HAVE, ARE EXTREMELY HARMFUL. BECAUSE THEY BASICALLY TRANSFER WEALTH ABROAD, THEY BASICALLY TRANSFER FACTORIES ABROAD. TRANSFER JOBS. PETER NAVARRO: FIVE AND A HALF DECADES TO 2%. DEFICIT, THESE UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES. NOW PRESIDENT TRUMP USING TAX CUTS, DEREGULATION, UNLEASHING THE ENERGY SECTOR AND BRINGING ABOUT THESE TRADE DEALS. HAS BOOSTED THAT GROWTH RATE UP NOW ABOVE 3%, WE’RE STRONG AND HEALTHY AND MOVING. BUT IN ORDER TO CONTINUE THAT WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO RESTRUCTURE OUR ECONOMY,BALANCE OUR TRADE DEFICIT AND MAKE SURE THAT WE HAVE A STRONG MANUFACTURING AND DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE. MARGARET HOOVER: I JUST WANT TO POINT OUT THOUGH THAT IN THE TIME SINCE CHINA JOINED THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION — THE AMERICAN ECONOMY HAS GROWN, AND WE’VE ALSO IN THAT TIME WEATHERED A GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. SO EVEN THOUGH WE’VE LOST JOBS IN SPECIFIC SECTORS, CERTAINLY IN MANUFACTURING, THAT’S DUE TO, MANY ECONOMISTS WOULD SAY, MANY MORE FACTORS THAN SIMPLY CHINA TAKING OUR MANUFACTURING BASE. PETER NAVARRO: SO THERE’S NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO WORK WITH THEIR HANDS WHO WANT TO RELIVE 2002 TO 2016, OKAY? PARTICULARLY IN MANUFACTURING COMMUNITIES.
MARGARET HOOVER: 2004. PETER NAVARRO: YEAH, AROUND THAT TIME. MARGARET HOOVER: WHATS THE ENDGAME WITH THE CHINESE TARIFFS? BECAUSE IF PRESIDENT TRUMP KEEPS HIS PROMISES, THE CHINESE HAVE TO SAVE FACE, THEY CAN’T BACK DOWN EITHER. HOW DO YOU SEE THIS RESOLVING ITSELF? PETER NAVARRO: WELL FIRST OF ALL I’M KEENLY ATTENTIVE TO THIS ISSUE OF FACE, I WAS IN THE PEACE CORPS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA FOR THREE YEARS. MARGARET HOOVER: IS THERE A DOWNSIDE TO TARIFFS? PETER NAVARRO: UH, TARIFFS, WHEN THEY’RE USED — MARGARET HOOVER: I MEAN THESE CHINESE TARIFFS. IS THERE A DOWNSIDE TO — IN THE U.S? PETER NAVARRO: I, I, NO, NO. MARGARET HOOVER: BUT — BUT WHAT’S BEEN SO SURPRISING TO MANY WHO’S WATCHED THE CHINESE RETALIATIONS IS HOW TARGETED, HOW SOPHISTICATED THEY HAVE BEEN AT TARGETING PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT SUPPORTED DONALD TRUMP POLITICALLY, PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT SUPPORT REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP POLITICALLY AND THAT UM THIS IS AN INDICATOR FOR SOMEONE WHO’S STUDIED CHINA — PETER NAVARRO: YOU COULD CALL THAT ELECTION MEDDLING. MARGARET HOOVER: YEAH. DO YOU THINK THE CHINESE ARE MEDDLING IN OUR ELECTIONS? PETER NAVARRO: WELL, I THINK — WELL, IF YOU LOOK AT — YOU — YOU JUST SAID THEY WERE. YOU BASICALLY SAID —
PETER NAVARRO: WHAT YOU SAID WAS THEY WERE TARGETING OUR DISTRICTS POLITICALLY, RIGHT, SO WHAT IS THAT? MARGARET HOOVER: THAT’S BEEN WIDELY REPORTED. PETER NAVARRO: HERE’S WHAT ALL WE’RE TRYING TO DO IS DEFEND OURSELVES. EVERYBODY IN AMERICA KNOWS THAT CHINA STEALS FROM US, AND THEY CHEAT US. AND SO IF IF — WHEN OUR PRESIDENT ACTS TO DEFEND OUR PEOPLE FROM THAT AND THE CHINESE RESPOND BY TRYING TO BULLY OUR FARMERS OR SOMEBODY WHO MAKES BOURBON IN KENTUCKY, UM, WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU? AND IT SOUNDS TO ME LIKE YOU’RE NOT CLEAR ON WHAT THE END GAME IS EITHER.
MARGARET HOOVER: UH FIRING LINE HAS A TRADITION, AS YOU KNOW, PETER NAVARRO: HA HA HA MARGARET HOOVER: OF BEING THE PLACE ON TELEVISION THAT WAS HOSTED BY WILLIAM F. BUCKLEY — PETER NAVARRO: USED TO WATCH IT AS A KID. MARGARET HOOVER: BACK WHEN YOU WERE A KID, WHEN YOU WERE A FREE MARKET ECONOMIST, WHEN YOU WERE FAR MORE FREE TRADE AND ALIGNED I THINK WITH THE IDEAS OF OF THAT PILLAR OF THE MODERN AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT THAT REALLY REVOLVED AROUND FREE MARKET LIBERTARIANISM, AND SO I WANT TO SHOW YOU AN ORIGINAL FIRING LINE CLIP AND GET YOUR RESPONSE TO IT [ CLIP ROLLING ] BUCKLEY: Mr. Wallich, how do you analyse that position? WALLICK: Well, uh, look what would be the consequences of putting these ceilings or quotas on imports. Many areas today imported things are precisely what helps the cost of living bearable. Look what’s happened to the price of shoes, price of clothing, price of meat. You put quotas on all of these things, that’s your limit imports and up go prices. So, the poor man no longer goes near the meat counter, he eats potatoes. He can’t have access to cheap shirts, he pays more for shoes, and so across the board. In the middle of a great inflation to limit imports is very hard on a large number of people, particularly poor people, it helps a small number of people who happen to face a tough competitive struggle in particular industries. BUCKLEY: And you would rather help them in different ways? WALLICH: I’d much rather help the in constructive ways; because if you keep these industries subsidized, you take the heat off them to really do their homework and increase their productivity.
PETER NAVARRO: SO UM ABOUT A WEEK AGO I WAS ON A TV SHOW AND SOMEBODY SAID WELL YOU — YOU USED TO BE A FREE TRADER. WELL, WHEN WAS THAT? IT’S LIKE I WROTE A BOOK IN 1984. THE HALLMARK OF WHICH IS MASSIVE UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES THAT BASICALLY DRAIN THE LIFEBLOOD OUT OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. SO THAT’S QUAINT. THAT’S NICE. IT’S LIKE THE STANDARD KIND OF TEXTBOOK PRE– PRE UH NAFTA PRE-CHINA THING. MARGARET HOOVER: BUT THE STANDARD OF LIVING — THE AMERICAN STANDARD OF LIVING — HAS INCREASED SINCE THEN. PETER NAVARRO: WELL I WOULD, I WOULD — — MARGARET HOOVER: WE JUST HAVE FEWER JOBS IN MANUFACTURING HERE. PETER NAVARRO: I DON’T KNOW WHERE TO START ON THAT. AND THE DEGREE OF FOREIGN CONTENT IN THE CARS WE ACTUALLY ASSEMBLE HERE IS HIGH. WE USED TO BE A VERTICALLY INTEGRATED AUTO INDUSTRY, WHERE WHAT WE MADE WE ASSEMBLED HERE. NOW THAT’S NOT THE CASE AT ALL. MARGARET HOOVER: BUT THAT SOUNDS LIKE A NOSTALGIC VIEW OF — OF A MANUFACTURING ECONOMY WHEN PETER NAVARRO: S —
PETER NAVARRO: I’M ALL — I’M ALL FOR AUTOMATION. BECAUSE IS ALLOW UH C-C-COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA, SAY, TO DUMP MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF PRODUCT INTO OUR COUNTRY, PUT OUR WORKERS OUT OF BUSINESS, AND UM HAVE — HAVE OUR FACTORIES IN OHIO BASICALLY SHIP OFF THEIR MACHINERY TO SHANGHAI WHERE THE CHINESE MAKE WHAT WE USED TO. SO UM — MARGARET HOOVER: YOU DON’T THINK THERE’S A WAY TO RETOOL OUR ECONOMY TO MEET THE CHANGING — PETER NAVARRO: WELL WE HAVE TO DO THAT. COMMITTED TO THAT. AND WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO DO IS FOCUS ON ON GETTING OUR YOUNG GENERATION UH EQUIPPED, BASICALLY FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE. THINGS WILL MOVE FASTER. MARGARET HOOVER: YOU MENTIONED AUTOMOBILES, AND WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS. THERE’S A THING CALLED THE CHICKEN TAX.
MARGARET HOOVER: I KNOW YOU KNOW WHAT THAT IS. PETER NAVARRO: YEAH ONE OF THE FEW REALLY STRONG SECTORS IN OUR ECONOMY IS LIGHT TRUCKS. AND THAT’S BECAUSE WE HAVE A 25% TARIFF ON THAT MARGARET HOOVER:IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT — PETER NAVARRO: WHO IS GOING TO REVIEW THAT? MARGARET HOOVER: NO — NO, WELL, MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING AT IT. I MEAN IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT —
PETER NAVARRO: THE CHICKEN TAX IS SACROSANCT, OKAY?
PETER NAVARRO: ON IMPORTED AUTOS IF HE CAN’T GET FAIRNESS FROM OUR ALLIES. MARGARET HOOVER: YEAH, IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU ARE SAYING, YEAH, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE COULD IMPOSE — PETER NAVARRO: WELL, THE PRESIDENT — THE PRESIDENT — MARGARET HOOVER: AUTOMOBILES — PETER NAVARRO: IS LOOKING INTO THIS. AND, TREATING US SO POORLY. MARGARET HOOVER: DO YOU THINK THE TARIFFS ARE WORKING? PETER NAVARRO: UH, I THINK THAT THE TARIFFS UH WILL BE HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL ON CHINA UH IN TERMS OF — OF — OF SLOWING DOWN THE — THE THEFT OF OUR TECHNOLOGY AND ATTACKS ON OUR INDUSTRIES, COUPLED WITH UH THE — THE — THE NEW UH REFORMS ON INVESTMENT PRACTICES BY FOREIGNERS TAKING TECHNOLOGY, IT’S CALLED FIRMA, THE CONGRESS JUST PASSED THAT. AND IT’S GOING TO BE A — A LONG PROCESS NOT JUST UH WITH CHINA, BUT ALL THESE OTHER COUNTRIES. MARGARET HOOVER: YOU CAME INTO THE ADMINISTRATION AND YOU SAID YOU HAD A COUPLE OF GOALS. THIS ASCENDANT CHINA, UH AND AND THREE WAS GET RID OF TPP —
MARGARET HOOVER: HERE IS WHAT I WANT TO ASK. ECONOMIC ALLIANCE THAT DIDN’T INCLUDE THEM, THEY WOULD DO EVERYTHING THEY COULD TO JOIN IT AND THAT YOU COULD USE THAT LEVERAGE IN ORDER TO EXACT CERTAIN OUTCOMES PETER NAVARRO: SURE. MARGARET HOOVER: ISN’T THERE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO MAKE TPP BETTER? PETER NAVARRO: WE ARE EFFECTIVELY RE-NEGOTIATING TPP UM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS, MARGARET HOOVER: ARE YOU WORKING ON A BILATERAL WITH JAPAN? PETER NAVARRO: YES, THAT’S ALREADY BEEN ANNOUNCED. MARGARET HOOVER: YEAH.
UNLESS THEY HAVEN’T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION THAT, WITH THE PRESIDENT’S FIRM COMMITMENTS IN PRINCIPLES TO FAIR, FREE AND RECIPROCAL TRADE DO IS THEY BRING PEOPLE TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, AND THEY GET DEALS DONE.
AT THE END OF NOVEMBER, THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. PETER NAVARRO: UH IT’S NOT CLEAR THAT THE WHITE HOUSE ASKED FOR THAT MEETING. THAT — THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PRESS THAT WAY. UH I THINK THAT —
PETER NAVARRO: UH — YEAH — I CAN’T — CAN’T COMMENT ON THAT. WHAT I CAN TELL YOU IS THIS. TO MEET IN SIDE MEETINGS AT THE G20 OR AT THE G7, AND — AND THAT WILL HAPPEN. UM AND WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. MARGARET HOOVER: THE PRESIDENT AS RECENTLY AS AUGUST SAID THAT THE CHINESE WERE MANIPULATING THEIR CURRENCY. WHY DO THEY DO THAT? WHY AREN’T WE CALLING THEM OUT FOR IT? PETER NAVARRO: SO UM UH TREASURY SECRETARY STEVE MNUCHIN GETS VERY UH UPSET WHEN OTHERS IN THE ADMINISTRATION TALK ABOUT THE PARTICULARS OF CURRENCY MANIPULATION. HERE IS WHAT I CAN TELL YOU AND I THINK —
CURRENCY MANIPULATORS GENERALLY RECOGNIZED FROM ABOUT 2003 TO ABOUT 2014. UNDERVALUES THEIR CURRENCY, WHAT THAT DOES IS IT MAKES THEIR EXPORTS CHEAPER, AND IT MAKES OUR EXPORTS MORE EXPENSIVE. MARGARET HOOVER: YOU DON’T THINK THEY’RE DOING IT ANYMORE? PETER NAVARRO: WELL THERE’S MORE DEBATE ABOUT IT NOW. BUT ITS AN INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT ISSUE. MARGARET HOOVER: WHAT ARE WE DOING FROM A TRADE PERSPECTIVE, FROM YOUR OFFICE OR FROM THE ADMINISTRATION TO COMPETE WITH CHINA NOT JUST IN CHINA, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SPHERES OF INFLUENCE THEY’RE EXPANDING TO LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA, SOUTHEAST ASIA —
THE — THE REALITY IS THAT WE HAVEN’T DONE SOFT POWER VERY WELL FOR MANY, MANY, MANY DECADES. AWARENESS NOW THAT WE NEED TO DO IT BETTER, AND — AND WE’RE MOVING —
PETER NAVARRO: NO, I THINK THAT UH —
BUILD UH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS UH IN COUNTRIES WHERE AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE INVOLVED AND IT BUILDS OUR ALLIANCES AND UH IT’S UH MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AND IT DOESN’T DRAIN OUR POCKET BOOKS, THAT’S A GOOD THING. THAT’S — THAT’S SOFT POWER THE TRUMP WAY. MARGARET HOOVER: DR. NAVARRO, THANK YOU FOR COMING TO FIRING LINE. PETER NAVARRO: ALL RIGHT, PLEASURE. |
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