New Study: Changing Political Preferences Among Religious Voters

On June 9, the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, Michigan released a national survey on religion and public life.  The study gauged the political attitudes and preferences of mainline Protestants, Roman Catholics, evangelicals, and religiously unaffiliated voters. It found that for the first time in polling history, more mainline Protestants identify with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. According to the study, 46 percent of mainline Protestants call themselves Democrats, compared to 37 percent who describe themselves as Republican. Nonetheless, John McCain has an edge with mainline Protestants voters over presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama (44 percent versus 38 percent). Eighteen percent of mainline Protestants say they are undecided.

Evangelical Protestants comprise the largest religious group in the American electorate, and in the past they have been overwhelmingly Republican. According to the Calvin study, this trend appears to be unchanged. Despite talk about McCain's problem rallying evangelicals, the majority (61 percent) say they plan to vote for him. But they are not supporting McCain at quite the same levels (65%) as they supported George W. Bush in 2004. Almost 20 percent of  evangelicals say they are undecided. There is no indication, however, that more evangelical voters will sit out the election in 2008 than in 2004.  

At 22 percent of the American population, Roman Catholics are one of the most important voting blocs. They are a key swing voting group and are disproportionately concentrated in some important electoral states, including Pennsylvania and Ohio. Historically, Roman Catholics voted Democratic, but today they almost evenly split between Republicans (38%) and Democrats (41%).

The Calvin poll also surveyed religiously unaffiliated people, including atheists, agnostics, and believers without a particular congregation or denomination. This is one of the most rapidly growing groups of American voters, and the study found they are largely Democratic and Independent. While they show a strong perference for Obama (65 percent), they are also less likely to go to the polls than other voters.

The survey of 3,002 respondents was conducted between April 8 and May 10, 2008 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

---Walter Randolph, a senior at Villanova University, is an intern at Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly.