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COVER:
Republicans and Religion
October 27, 2006    Episode no. 1009
Read This Week's November 7, 2008
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BOB ABERNETHY, anchor: The gay marriage issue is energizing religious conservatives to turn out voters on Election Day, which could help Republicans. Evangelicals have been one of the most important voting blocs for the GOP, but recently there's been growing dissatisfaction in the ranks. Last week, Kim Lawton looked at the Democrats' new outreach to people of faith. Today, she reports on the relationship between Republicans and religious conservatives.

KIM LAWTON: In a suburb of Nashville, Tennessee, Carolyn Hickerson has distributed nearly 10,000 yard signs in support of traditional marriage. Amendment One, on the state ballot in November, would define marriage as between a man and a woman, and it would ensure that Tennessee not be forced to recognize any other forms of marriage allowed elsewhere. Hickerson is an evangelical Christian who is rallying church support for the measure.

Photo of Hickerson CAROLYN HICKERSON (Evangelical Activist): Based on the Scriptures, they should have an opinion on the family and the sanctity of marriage and how important the family is to our nation.

LAWTON: Conservative religious activists continue to mobilize around the issue of marriage. The New Jersey Supreme Court's decision in the gay marriage case has provided new momentum for the religious right to get out the vote.

LAWTON: Mark Rozell, professor of public policy at George Mason University, says same-sex marriage is a galvanizing issue for religious conservatives.

Professor MARK ROZELL (George Mason University): If you talk to a lot of leaders in the movement, they will tell you quite candidly that for their fundraising purposes, for their fundraising letters and so forth, that's the number one issue right up there. That's the big threat that activists at the grassroots feel.

LAWTON: The New Jersey decision could provide an electoral boost for Republican candidates. In recent weeks, many religious conservatives had been voicing strong frustration with their usual ally, the Republican Party -- a development that could have serious implications at the polls.

Prof. ROZELL: The Republicans need a solid, enthusiastic turnout among those voters in order to be successful.

LAWTON: Religious conservatives have been a mainstay of the Republican coalition. In the 2004 election, 78 percent of all evangelicals voted for George W. Bush. That represented 40 percent of his total vote. But there have been several cracks in that coalition. According to a new Pew Forum survey, less than half of all evangelicals now think the GOP is friendly toward religion. That's a 14 percent drop from just a year ago.

With the declining influence of organizations like the Christian Coalition, James Dobson of Focus on the Family has become perhaps the most influential national leader for conservative evangelical political activism, and he's been speaking openly about his disillusionment.

Photo of Dobson Dr. JAMES DOBSON (Founder and Chairman, Focus on the Family, speaking at DC summit): I have been extremely disappointed with what the Republicans have done with the power that they were given. There was so much said about values voters, that the values voters made the difference. Well, if that's true, why did not the Republicans when they had the power in both the House and the Senate pay attention to what the values voters cared about? And they didn't.

Prof. ROZELL: And I think it hits a boiling point at a certain point with many in the religious conservative movement that they feel they've been faithful to the Republican Party. They've gone out there and worked real hard for Republican Party candidates, and time and time again, they feel that their agenda has been largely put on the backburner at the federal level.

Photo of Jackson Reverend HARRY JACKSON (Pastor, Hope Christian Church): We should have said, "We get something for our participation."

LAWTON: Reverend Harry Jackson is pastor of an evangelical megachurch in Maryland. He's helped lead the fight against gay marriage and has tried to mobilize conservative African-American voters. He says evangelicals cannot allow Republicans to ignore their priorities.

Rev. JACKSON: As an African American, I believe over the years blacks have been taken for granted by the Democratic Party, and I've said this to evangelical leaders. We've allowed ourselves to be considered the new blacks on the political plantation -- strong words, but a real feeling I have.

LAWTON: Another complication, Jackson says, is growing concern among some values voters about how the Iraq war is going. The question is, what will they base their votes on?

Rev. JACKSON: The war versus same-sex marriage? It shouldn't be either-or. It should be both-and, and us really voting for a better America.

Photo of Perkins LAWTON: Tony Perkins of the faith-based Family Research Council says the scandal surrounding former Republican congressman Mark Foley's e-mails to underage male pages has also burned bridges between religious conservatives and the Republicans.

TONY PERKINS (President, Family Research Council): I think the whole episode with Foley and the party has some sitting back saying, "You know, all this talk about the big tent strategy -- this looks more like a three-ring circus. I'm just not sure if this is the party I want to be a part of."

LAWTON: At the same time, religious conservatives have faced increasing criticism from within the Republican Party. On his Web site, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, himself an evangelical, called James Dobson a "bully" seeking inappropriate government influence.

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Despite their criticisms of the Republican Party, Perkins and Dobson have been leading a national effort to convince religious conservatives to get out the vote. They've been holding a series of rallies around the country. At each, Dobson is sounding an urgent alarm.

Dr. DOBSON (speaking in video): I beg you not to sit out this time of decision. You owe it to your country, to God, to your children, and to future generations to let your voices be heard.

LAWTON: The issue of gay marriage has been a cornerstone of their effort.

Dr. DOBSON (speaking at Nashville rally): It will have major implications for the future of this country, because the family, and marriage being the centerpiece of it, is the ground floor. That's the foundation. Everything sits on that foundation, and if you undermine it or weaken it, you threaten the whole superstructure.

LAWTON: Dobson urges voters to not only consider the laws in their own states, but to worry about what he calls activist judges who legislate from the bench and to think about who will be confirming future Supreme Court justices.

Dr. DOBSON (speaking in video): And as the Court stands right now, it is not at all certain whether traditional marriage will be upheld in the near future. So the confirmation of the next justice could be pivotal in defending the family.

LAWTON: Eight states, including Tennessee, have pro-traditional marriage amendments on the ballot. In 2004, the issue helped Republicans.

Photo of Rozell Prof. ROZELL: The post-election data showed that religious conservative participation was significantly up in those states in which there were gay marriage referenda on the ballot and that those states and those voters went more heavily for George Bush than did the non-referenda states.

State Senator DAVID FOWLER (R-TN, speaking at church): Amendment One says, "Tennessee, it will be a man and a woman until we decide to change it." Vote yes, Amendment One.

LAWTON: Republican State Senator David Fowler has been spearheading the effort to get Tennessee's marriage amendment passed. He's been actively enlisting support from churches.

Photo of fowler Sen. FOWLER: They are a great vehicle for reaching a large number of people in a quick period of time, relatively inexpensively.

LAWTON: He says it's an issue that concerns voters across the religious spectrum.

Sen. FOWLER: They believe that there are certain things about the nature of the world we live in that are just true to the nature of things, and for them, marriage is one of those things.

LAWTON: In Tennessee's closely contested Senate race, both Democrat Harold Ford and Republican Bob Corker come down on the same side.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN (at televised debate): Would you support a constitutional amendment to define marriage as the union between one man and one woman?

Rep. HAROLD FORD (Democratic Senate Candidate, TN): I've done it at least two times in the Congress and will vote again that way.

UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN (at televised debate): Mayor Corker?

BOB CORKER (Republican Senate Candidate, TN): Absolutely, and have stated so clearly.

LAWTON: But the issue could be a deciding factor in other tight races.

Mr. PERKINS (during rally): Let me ask you a question. Are you ready to stand for the family?

LAWTON: Perkins predicts his movement will turn out in big numbers on November 7.

Mr. PERKINS: It's kind of like a reserve military. They come out when needed and when they're called upon, and so I think when the threat is there, they will be there to defend the institute of marriage.

LAWTON: But he warns Republicans not to assume that values voters have nowhere else to go.

Mr. PERKINS (speaking at rally): All of the sudden, everybody's getting religion at election time. Have you noticed that?

They're not wed to a party. They're wed to a core set of issues and values, and that's where they will go, and when a party or a political figure leaves those issues, those voters will leave that person or that party.

(speaking at rally): How many of you will commit to call 10 people on Election Day and make sure that they go vote? Raise your hand. All right, you got to call 10 people. We need to get people out to vote in this election and vote your values!

LAWTON: And in close elections, that can make all the difference. I'm Kim Lawton in Nashville.

ABERNETHY: Next week, how the November 7 election could set the stage for religion's role in the 2008 presidential campaigns.

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