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COVER:
Election 2008 Preview
November 3, 2006    Episode no. 1010
Read This Week's November 7, 2008
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BOB ABERNETHY, anchor: There has been a lot of faith-based mobilization surrounding these midterm elections, and what happens next Tuesday (November 7) will help set the stage for the role religion plays in the 2008 presidential elections.

Photo of Phone bank KIM LAWTON: In suburban Detroit, Catholic activists, including several nuns, are working a last-minute phone bank to get out the vote. They are calling likely Catholic voters in southeast Michigan and urging them to vote for Democratic candidates.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN #1 (on phone): I'm very concerned about the common good.

LAWTON: In Nashville, Tennessee, evangelical activists are rallying support for a state constitutional amendment that would define marriage as between a man and a woman. Meanwhile, candidates across the political and theological spectrum are making unprecedented religious campaign appeals. It's all part of the multifaceted role religion is playing in these midterm elections.

Professor ALLEN HERTZKE (Director of Religious Studies, University of Oklahoma): You might say that candidates are using a stained-glass strategy across the board.

LAWTON: Allen Hertzke is director of religious studies and professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma.

Prof. HERTZKE: In my 20 years of following the religious scene, I have never seen religion as politicized as it has been this year in the congressional/gubernatorial races. And so what we're going to see, I think, is it set the stage for a highly politicized religious environment in 2008.

LAWTON: According to a new Pew Forum survey, nearly 70 percent of all Americans say liberals have gone too far in trying to keep religion out of government. That includes 60 percent of all Democrats. But at the same time, almost half of the public believes that conservative Christians have gone too far in trying to impose their religious values on the country.

Political strategists are working hard to find a winning mix of religion and politics. It's a new effort for Democrats, who have struggled in recent years over how to deal with religion. This campaign season, in addition to shoring up their traditional black church base, many Democratic candidates have been reaching out to Catholic, mainline Protestant, and even evangelical communities.

Prof. HERTZKE: There's a whole apparatus now developing around the Democratic Party that is attempting to frame issues in a way that has religious resonance, and so I think the Democrats, in fact, have learned a lesson that you can't ignore religion, and you can't cede that territory to the Republicans.

LAWTON: According to Professor Shaun Casey of Wesley Theological Seminary, the Democrats have been strategically targeting states that are expected to play a decisive role in 2008.

Photo of Casey Professor SHAUN CASEY (Wesley Theological Seminary): If you start with Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan, certainly there's a lot of effort by Democrats in those areas. And if you can show that religious outreach produces actual electoral dividends in those states and those closely contested races, it's going to reverberate out from there. I think everybody who is going be running for the nomination in the Democratic Party is going to have some form of religious outreach probably for the first time in the history of the party.

LAWTON: The efforts have been putting pressure on the Republicans who are trying to mobilize their religious conservative base while at the same time pulling in new voters. Georgetown University's Professor Clyde Wilcox says that challenge will only grow during the presidential election season.

Photo of Wilcox Professor CLYDE WILCOX(Georgetown University): Well, the difficulty with the Republican Party is that if you take a very strongly Christian right set of positions on issues, that appeals to the base and helps you win primaries, but it can alienate moderate voters in the general election.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN #2: The seven key themes of Catholic social teachings are included here… LAWTON: In the midst of it all, Roman Catholics are one of the most important blocs of voters. Catholics are by no means a unified bloc. In 2004, a narrow majority voted for George W. Bush. But those voters are not firmly in the Republican camp. Many political advocacy groups have been competing for Catholic attention this fall, especially in pivotal states like Ohio and Michigan.

Photo of Yes Sign Prof. HERTZKE: The Catholic community is absolutely essential. They are the quintessential swing voters in American politics today, and the candidate who wins the Catholic vote is likely to be the one who will win the presidency. It is that important.

LAWTON: Conservative evangelicals have been rallying their ranks as well. They made up 40 percent of Bush's total vote in 2004 and have a massive church-based get-out-the vote machine. And they intend to be a significant factor.

TONY PERKINS (President, Family Research Council, speaking at Nashville rally): Because we've got an important election coming up and we as Christians need to speak and we need to vote our values.

LAWTON: Experts wonder whether any presidential candidate in 2008 will be able to command the religious support that Bush received in the last two elections, particularly from evangelicals.

Prof. CASEY: He had been working for almost 15 years courting that constituency in various ways, and it took him a long time to build, to overcome the initial mistrust, and you have to give him great credit. He exhibited great political skill in reaching out and unifying what had been a badly divided group of religious communities. I don't see anybody on either side replicating that.

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LAWTON: Several possible Republican contenders are already trying, but they face tough challenges. Earlier this year, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, a pro-choice Catholic, spoke about lessons in leadership at an evangelism conference attended by pastors and ministry leaders.

RUDY GIULIANI (in speech): And if any of these lessons help at all in saving people and helping people and bringing them to Jesus and bringing them to God, you've done me a great favor. Thank you.

LAWTON: But conservatives would likely have a hard time supporting him for president because of his stands in favor of abortion rights and gay marriage.

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has received a warm reception at recent pro-family rallies. But his Mormon faith may concern some Christian conservatives.

Photo of Hertzke Prof. HERTZKE: For many evangelicals, Mormons are not true Christians -- and not only that, they really are viewed as people belonging to a cult. And that's very strong language, and it's negative and pejorative language, but that's how many evangelicals view Mormons.

LAWTON: Other possible nominees have tense relations with religious conservatives as well. Arizona Senator John McCain attacked the Christian right during the 2000 primaries, and Tennessee Senator Bill Frist alienated many with his support for embryonic stem cell research. The question is, who will religious conservatives support?

Prof. CASEY: If you look at the leaders of the religious right, they're going to be under tremendous pressure to pick a candidate early. And yet there's absolutely no upside if you're one of those leaders to pick somebody early, because if you pick wrong and lose, then you're going to be on the outside looking in.

LAWTON: On the Democratic side, potential candidates are taking lessons from John Kerry's reluctance to address religion during his 2004 campaign. Recently, Kerry himself has begun talking more openly about his faith, perhaps observers speculate, in preparation for another run.

Another possible contender, John Edwards, had already been addressing religious issues until he became Kerry's running mate. Hillary Clinton has begun quietly reaching out to faith-based groups, talking and writing about her United Methodist faith. And many believe Illinois Senator Barack Obama could have broad religious appeal.

Senator BARACK OBAMA (in speech): I felt that I heard God's spirit beckoning me. I submitted myself to his will and dedicated myself to discovering his truth.

LAWTON: Given the wide open nature of the race, experts expect lots of God-talk during the campaign. Casey says much of it will be autobiographical.

Prof. CASEY: I doubt you're going to hear many people saying when they accept the nomination in summer of 2008, "Jesus told me to do X" or "God told me to do Y." I don't think you're going to hear that kind of language. They're going to be talking about how they grew up. They're going to be talking about the spiritual values that have shaped them or that they currently embrace.

LAWTON: Casey says this is uncharted territory for American voters.

Prof. CASEY: We may have 20 people running for president very soon, and there's going to be 20 different stories circulating out there. And as voters we've never had to process that many stories together at one time and say, "Okay, I like that story. I'm not so sure about that one."

Photo of Common good book Prof. HERTZKE: The Democrats will be talking about the common good and how the New Testament or the Sermon on the Mount relates to provision for the poor and for the working class. Republicans will be speaking about pro-family policies and how they relate to their faith. And so I do think we're going to see a lot of it. I think it's going to be a factor in presidential debates. But I do think the danger is overdoing it.

LAWTON: Professor Wilcox agrees there's always the potential of alienating secular voters or of appearing inauthentic. But, he says, religion can provide key background information for voters.

Prof. WILCOX: We don't know what issues will be important in the next four years, so how do you know who to trust? How do you know which candidate will represent your values? They need to tell you something authentic about what they care about. Religion is one of the shortcuts we use to determine what people care about.

Prof. HERTZKE: I'm not sure it's really healthy, the era we're in, in which religion is so politicized and, some might argue, so exploited for political ends.

LAWTON: But Hertzke says, for good or for ill, the "faith factor" will be transforming the political landscape well beyond November 7.

I'm Kim Lawton reporting.

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