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RELIGION & POLITICS:
Religious Voters and Election 2008
February 8, 2008    Episode no. 1123
Read This Week's May 9, 2008
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Despite the prominent role of religion this campaign season, exit pollsters have not asked religion questions of Democratic voters in most of the primary contests so far and only limited religion questions of Republican voters. Zogby International has been asking religion questions of likely voters in its pre-election tracking polls and gave Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly exclusive access to that data. It offers a picture of how religious voting groups are leaning this year. Among the highlights: Hillary Clinton has done consistently well among Catholics and especially white Catholics. Barack Obama and Clinton have divided the white Protestant vote, including white born again Protestants. Obama has consistently won black Protestants, especially in South Carolina, and Clinton has won Hispanic Catholics. Obama has done especially well among the most and the least religiously observant. John McCain and Mitt Romney were in a tight competition for white Catholic and white Protestant votes, and although Mike Huckabee has been doing well among evangelicals, he is still not the consensus candidate for born-again Protestants.

California Likely Democratic Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 40 30 38 21 44 54 35
Barack Obama 38 58 43 67 37 35 52
Other/ Not Sure 22 12 19 12 19 11 13
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


California Likely Republican Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Mike Huckabee 22 25 6 18 6 12 6
John McCain 27 22 36 23 36 54 33
Mitt Romney 37 40 45 34 41 19 39
Other/ Not Sure 14 13 13 25 17 15 22
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Georgia Likely Democratic Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 43 15 39 18 34 21 30
Barack Obama 24 65 37 70 43 68 50
Other/ Not Sure 33 20 24 12 23 11 20
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Missouri Likely Democratic Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 59 31 47 15 51 10 36
Barack Obama 29 51 40 81 36 79 48
Other/ Not Sure 12 18 13 4 13 11 16
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Missouri Likely Republican Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Mike Huckabee 44 27 18 19 12 71 12
John McCain 29 32 38 -- 41 29 43
Mitt Romney 17 13 26 63 34 -- 19
Other/ Not Sure 10 28 18 18 13 -- 26
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


New Jersey Likely Democratic Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 59 29 37 18 56 66 38
Barack Obama 27 60 51 65 31 17 46
Other/ Not Sure 14 11 12 17 13 17 16
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


New Jersey Likely Republican Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Mike Huckabee 13 9 6 10 5 -- 3
John McCain 37 29 44 22 60 81 54
Mitt Romney 31 10 32 9 23 14 20
Other/ Not Sure 19 52 18 59 12 5 23
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


New York Likely Republican Primary Voters February 5, 2008-Super Tuesday


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Mike Huckabee 20 12 8 19 5 -- 3
John McCain 40 77 57 39 53 63 56
Mitt Romney 21 9 19 3 24 5 23
Other/ Not Sure 19 2 16 39 18 32 18
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Florida Likely Republican Primary Voters January 29, 2008


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Rudy Giuliani 8 5 13 -- 18 32 20
Mike Huckabee 24 30 5 40 5 9 7
John McCain 27 36 36 12 33 44 29
Mitt Romney 29 5 33 45 34 14 30
Other/ Not Sure 12 24 13 3 10 1 14
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters January 26, 2008


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 32 20 33 14 43 19 22
John Edwards 42 3 34 7 25 12 14
Barack Obama 11 60 21 66 23 60 44
Other/ Not Sure 15 17 12 13 9 9 20
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters January 26, 2008


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Rudy Giuliani 3 2 5 3 10 6 4
Mike Huckabee 33 18 13 13 10 12 20
John McCain 27 13 35 27 29 47 26
Mitt Romney 11 6 19 22 18 7 12
Fred Thompson 12 9 15 -- 13 18 11
Other/ Not Sure 14 52 13 35 20 10 27
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Nevada Likely Democratic Caucus Voters January 19, 2008


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Hillary Clinton 53 31 47 25 54 50 38
John Edwards 14 4 10 -- 11 2 13
Barack Obama 29 53 34 71 27 37 39
Other/ Not Sure 4 12 9 4 8 11 10
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Michigan Likely Republican Primary Voters January 15, 2008


White Evangelical/Born Again % Non White Evangelical/Born Again % White Protestant % Non White Protestant % White Catholic % Non White Catholic % Other %
Rudy Giuliani 2   4 4 -- 6 8 6
Mike Huckabee 29 25 7 9 10 21 10
John McCain 21 18 33 16 28 25 29
Mitt Romney 24 18 26 9 32 23 17
Fred Thompson 6 3 8 3 4 -- 4
Other/ Not Sure 18 32 22 63 20 23 34
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


New Hampshire Likely Democratic Primary Voters January 8, 2008


Hillary Clinton % John Edwards % Barack Obama %
Catholic 44 35 29
Protestant 32 35 37
Jewish 4 5 4
Muslim 1 -- --
Atheist/Other 19 25 30
Total 100 100 100


New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters January 8, 2008


Rudy Giuliani % Mike Huckabee % John McCain % Mitt Romney % Fred Thompson %
Catholic 42 19 40 43 34
Protestant 42 71 46 46 54
Jewish 2 -- 1 1 --
Muslim -- -- -- -- --
Atheist/Other 14 10 13 10 12
Total 100 100 100 100 100


Iowa Likely Democratic Caucus Voters January 3, 2008


Hillary Clinton % John Edwards % Barack Obama %
Catholic 24 28 21
Protestant 55 54 47
Jewish 1 1 1
Muslim -- -- --
Atheist/Other 20 17 31
Total 100 100 100


Iowa Likely Republican Caucus Voters January 3, 2008


Rudy Giuliani % Mike Huckabee % John McCain % Mitt Romney % Fred Thompson %
Catholic 25 14 21 26 21
Protestant 55 79 71 64 72
Jewish -- -- -- -- 1
Muslim -- -- -- -- --
Atheist/Other 20 7 8 10 6
Total 100 100 100 100 100


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