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Dr. Phebe Marr, a historian and expert on Iraq, predicted that Iraqis will be impatient with any occupation and will want to govern themselves. Later, she told me that would mean a strong role for the Shiites.
Dr. PHEBE MARR (Historian and Author, THE MODERN HISTORY OF IRAQ): The word "shia" means partisan or party. That tells you that this was originally a political rather than a religious split. "Sunni" comes from the word "suna" -- the custom and practice of the Prophet, which is encoded in Islamic law. The Sunnis follow the law. The Shia follow the leader.
The split originated in a problem of succession after the death of the Prophet Muhammad. Ali, his cousin and son-in-law, was passed over for the succession and thought he should have had it.
ABERNETHY: So it's not primarily a religious split in Iraq?
Dr. MARR: No, it is not a religious split in Iraq. I will say that definitively. The two communities get along fairly well.
Dr. PHEBE MARR (Historian and Author, THE MODERN HISTORY OF IRAQ): The word "shia" means partisan or party. That tells you that this was originally a political rather than a religious split. "Sunni" comes from the word "suna" -- the custom and practice of the Prophet, which is encoded in Islamic law. The Sunnis follow the law. The Shia follow the leader.
The split originated in a problem of succession after the death of the Prophet Muhammad. Ali, his cousin and son-in-law, was passed over for the succession and thought he should have had it.
ABERNETHY: So it's not primarily a religious split in Iraq?
Dr. MARR: No, it is not a religious split in Iraq. I will say that definitively. The two communities get along fairly well.
Dr. MARR: Well that's the $64,000 question. Nobody can answer that. But I can certainly tell you that this issue I've sketched out, what percentage of Shia, what role the Shia play in government, is going to be a very dominant one. Iraq is a very secular country. It's one of the most secular countries in the Middle East. 
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