BOB ABERNETHY: We want to ask three top reporters not to prophesy -- although that's OK if you can do it -- but to talk about the events and ideas they expect to make news in 2004.
In Rome, John Allen covers the Vatican for the independent weekly, NATIONAL CATHOLIC REPORTER. Here in Washington, Cathy Grossman covers religion for USA TODAY, and E.J. Dionne is a columnist for THE WASHINGTON POST, co-chair of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life and a professor at Georgetown University. E.J., it's a presidential election year coming up -- tell us about religion and politics.
E.J. DIONNE (Columnist, THE WASHINGTON POST): You know, politicians slice and dice voters in many ways and one is by religious group. White evangelical Christians are a central part of the Republican base. Karl Rove, the President's top political advisor, thought that they may have voted in lower numbers in 2000, which made the election so close. They are going to be looking -- the Republicans -- for a higher turnout there. Two key swing groups in the electorate: Catholics, who used to be very Democratic and now are a swing group, and white Mainline Protestants, who used to be more Republican and are now a swing group. African-Americans are a very religious, solid part of the Democratic base. I think there is a lot of interest in what Muslim voters are going to do because of the events over the last couple of years. They were solidly for Bush in 2000. There's a sign that they are moving much more Democratic. And then the Jewish vote is up for grabs to a degree. It's a solid Democratic vote. The question is, will the President's foreign policy successes have any effect on reducing the Democratic margin among Jews?
CATHY GROSSMAN (Religion Writer, USA TODAY): Don't forget the secular vote that is very much drawn into the Internet actions led by Howard Dean. It will be very interesting to see whether those individualists, who tend to turn so much to the Internet for their relationships to politics and values and so forth, will turn out to vote.ABERNETHY: That's a good point. John Allen in Rome, you cover the Vatican. Tell us what you can about the pope's health and about what people are saying there about a possible successor?
JOHN ALLEN (Vatican Correspondent, NATIONAL CATHOLIC REPORTER): Well, I think health is clearly the dominant papal story of the moment. The Vatican to-date has not scheduled any trips for the pope in 2004 and John Paul II's public schedule is likely to be increasingly pared back and that is going to have a couple of effects throughout the year. I mean, one, people will continue to discuss whether or not it is wise for him to continue. You know, the Vatican's argument is that this example he is giving of bearing his suffering with dignity is valuable for the world. Others will suggest the Church is adrift and needs new leadership. The other level at which the argument will go on is the speculation about the succession. Now, of course, openly speaking there is no politicking, there is no campaigning, like you are seeing in 2004 for the U.S. presidency, but informally and in more subtle ways. Certainly the question is being asked every time a cardinal gives an interview, every time a cardinal makes a speech, every time a cardinal makes a trip. People are listening about what he is saying in terms of where the Church ought to go and obviously asking the question, could this man be pope?
ABERNETHY: Is there a lot of speculation about a new pope coming from the Third World?
Mr. ALLEN: Yes, that's right. And, I think the most popular version of that hypothesis is the Latin American theory, which holds that some 50 percent of the Catholics in the world today live in Latin America and there are a lot of very impressive Latin American cardinals. So, many people will look to those Latin Americans as "papabili" -- that is as potential popes. And, a couple of names that get a lot of traction these days: Cardinal Jorge Maria Bergoglio, from Buenos Aires in Argentina, and Cardinal Claudio Hummes from Sao Paolo in Brazil -- both moderates on doctrinal questions, both very engaged in social justice issues, both charismatic, but not too charismatic. I mean, there are a lot of cardinals that think that the present pope has been such a strong figure that they have been elbowed off the stage, if you like, a little bit. I think both of these men would provide a little bit more breathing room for other layers of authority in the Church.
ABERNETHY: Cathy, you have been covering the split in the Episcopal Church. Where do you expect that to go in this new year?
Ms. GROSSMAN: It's going to be a little bit like looking through a kaleidoscope. The figures are going to be moving around and changing into new patterns. I think that the conservative Episcopalians who want to set up their own parallel network -- an ideological province rather than a geographic province -- may run into some problems. You can't have two bishops in charge of same district. On the other hand, the Episcopal Church USA, which approved the gay bishop in New Hampshire and said that locals could recognize gay unions, is going to try to allow congregations that are strongly opposed to this to have a bishop to come and perform sacramental duties there, that is in sympathy with them.
ABERNETHY: Are they going to be able to work out problems of pensions and property --who owns the church, the individual parish church?
Ms. GROSSMAN: I think there will be one or two spectacular court battles over a couple historic churches. I can't pinpoint exactly where or when, but it seems likely that there will be some congregations that will take it to the mat. But, by and large, I don't think it's going to turn up in the courts as much as it's going to be individuals voting with their feet, looking for a pew where they feel at home.
Mr. ALLEN (to Ms. Grossman): Can I ask you a question that is on the Vatican's mind these days, which is, is there any potential for massive defection from inside the Episcopal Church to Roman Catholicism?Ms. GROSSMAN: I don't think anything massive is going to happen. The Episcopal experts that I talked to refer to this as the "church of the middle of the road." There will be a lot of hair pulling, but in the end the numbers that move are going to be small.
ABERNETHY: E.J., I wanted to ask you about the Supreme Court and what you expect there -- a couple of big cases about the line between church and state. Is that line moving?
Mr. DIONNE: Well, it could depending on these cases. There is a big case out of Washington State where a gentleman wanted to go to a religious school and study theology essentially to study for the ministry. The State of Washington has a very strong constitutional ban on its state and religion, stronger than the federal constitution. The state said "No, we are not going to pay for this." The man sued. There are a lot of issues here. One is we've had a tradition where people could go to university and study whatever they want -- why shouldn't he get the loan? But, if the court actually ruled against -- in his favor -- they could wipe out similar constitutional bans in some 37 states. My guess is that Justice Kennedy is looking for some middle-of-the-road position where this gentleman gets a scholarship. He is actually out of school now and in Harvard Law School, appropriately enough. But, they don't make the broad ruling that knocks down the state amendments. The other case is the "under God" provision and the American flag. My hunch is that the Court there will try to write a very narrow ruling to keep "under God" in the Pledge [of Allegiance] and just get the issue off the table. I suspect a lot of Democratic presidential candidates would like that issue to go away too.
Mr. DIONNE: I think the interesting question is how Islamic is the state? I mean, we don't argue much about the fact that the Church of England is the established church in Great Britain or in England. And, that if you had a declared Islamic republic with strong guarantees of religious liberty that would be quite different than an Islamic state that had no such guarantees. So, I think that a lot of people who support religious liberty could live with some formal recognition of Islam. The devil, or in this case I suppose God, will be in the details.
Mr. ALLEN: I think one of the very interesting stories that cuts across a lot of what we've been talking about actually, is the identity question. I think one of the mega-trends in the world is this sort of -- through the process of globalization -- this homogenization of culture that's going on and then the attempt to affirm particularity over and against that. And I think in religious groups across the board you see this strong tendency towards a reassertion of traditional identity, which involves things like liturgical practice. It involves their attitudes towards interfaith dialogue. I mean, it's no accident that the most neuralgic doctrinal questions inside Roman Catholicism right now, for example, involve how the Church understands its relationship with other religions. And, two theologians there, Jacques Dupuis and Roger Haight, have certainly been feeling the heat around those issues. But, it also involves questions of language. And, how much of the language from the broader culture religious groups ought to use versus speaking their own tongue, if you like. I think all of these identity pressures are going to continue to boil in 2004.
