Anna, let's begin with your finding that, in many ways, evangelicals are not so different from anybody else.
I think one of the most interesting parts about this research is how many characteristics evangelicals share with other Americans. They are slightly more likely to live in the South, but not extremely so. They are slightly more likely to live in rural areas or small towns, but not extremely so. They have pretty high levels of education. Almost as many have a college education as anybody else. They say they're part of the mainstream, and in many ways, they are part of the mainstream.But with big differences about what?
The biggest difference is their beliefs and practice. They have very strong and conservative religious beliefs, and they put them into practice at a level of great intensity, compared to anybody else.
But there's a big tension, isn't there, John, between this idea, on the one hand, that they feel part of the mainstream, and on the other hand, an uneasiness about their acceptance?
Absolutely. The survey shows that, I think, very clearly. On the one hand, about three quarters of evangelicals really think that they're in the mainstream of American society, which fits with Anna's findings about their demography. On the other hand, three quarters of them also think that they have to fight hard to get their point of view across to their fellow Americans. So this is a group that feels in some ways comfortable with American society, but in other respects still estranged and still apart.They feel that they have to fight to get their point of view across, John, even though the president and the attorney general and leaders of the House and Senate are evangelicals?
Absolutely. You know, one of the interesting findings in the survey was that evangelicals recognize that they have influence with the president, with the White House. But they also feel that the news media is very hostile to them. And about half of them feel that other Americans look down upon them. This is a group that understands that it has a place, but they are not entirely comfortable with that place.
You mentioned, John, that they are not so happy with the mass media.
Not happy at all. Three quarters of white evangelicals also view the media as being hostile to their values and their community.
Anna, one of your impressive findings had to do with the importance of moral values -- for evangelicals and for everybody else.
That's right. I think that we make an assumption that the thing evangelicals care about most [is] the moral values of this country, and that's true. If you ask them, "What do you care about most?" about a third say the most important issue is moral values. But in fact, there are a lot of other issues that bother them just as much -- the economy, retirement, education. So it turns out, when they think about their economic concerns, they're not all that different than other Americans. When you ask, "What's your biggest worry?" the thing that comes out is children not learning the right values. In fact, all Americans feel that way. When you ask evangelicals, "How are the moral values of the country going?" the vast majority would say, "The wrong direction." What's interesting is that other Americans feel the same way. The difference between the two is that evangelicals act upon it. They vote on it. They make sure they control what kinds of popular culture their kids are exposed to. Americans all share the same concern about moral values, but there's an impetus among evangelicals to actually do something about it. Other Americans aren't as likely to say that their view on the moral direction of the country has the same impact on their behavior.
John?
It turns out that Americans overall have some real questions about whether the country is on the right track morally. It's not just evangelicals. It's interesting to put the findings that Anna talked about, about their priorities, versus this general sense that we're on the wrong track morally. Part of what may be going on here is there are different definitions of morality. Evangelicals tend to look at family, children, sexual issues; whereas many other Americans may look at social justice, war and peace, and those types of issues.
And Anna?
Or corporate greed. That moral question actually has a different political implication for evangelicals than it does for other Americans.
John?
Absolutely.
What does this new survey have to say, John, about evangelicals and politics in 2004?
Well, you know, the last couple of years, white evangelicals have been seen as a strong Republican constituency. They voted very heavily for George Bush in 2000, and our survey suggests that that support for Bush is maintained; for instance, we found that 71 percent of white evangelicals said they would vote for Bush over Kerry if the election were held today. There is some question as to what the voter turnout will be, which is important. And at the moment, it looks like voter turnout will be about like other Americans. But of course, it'll be very important to President Bush to have high turnout from this solid Republican constituency. White evangelicals are clearly a conservative, or Republican, group. But they're not monolithically so. About 23 percent said they would vote for Kerry, and it's possible that, under [certain] circumstances, the Democrats might get even a few more votes.
What circumstances?
If social issues come up in the campaign in a way that allows the economic and foreign policy concerns of evangelicals to be relevant to their votes. For some people, the economy is going to be very important. Many evangelicals believe that the country's on the wrong track economically, very much like their fellow citizens. But for evangelicals, the moral issues seem to take precedence, and that seems to be what ties them to their Republican voting behavior. Many of the evangelical Democrats are pretty fierce Democrats, strongly supportive of their party. It is possible, if the social issues are somewhat on the back burner in this election, that Senator Kerry might even get a few more votes from the evangelical community, because issues like the economy and health care matter to them, as well.
But, Anna, not much chance that those social issues are going to remain anything but of very high importance for evangelicals?
That's right. I think it's hard to imagine a different outcome. Another thing that probably stands Bush well with evangelical voters is how they view the world and America in the world. They are very, very supportive of a strong defense. They're supportive of the war on terrorism. They're patriotic. They are less supportive of a more multilateral view or interventionist [view] around human rights issues. And to the extent that international issues play a role in this election, which they will, many evangelicals are very strongly supportive of the president. When it comes to their views about the world, white evangelicals are very interested in being strong militarily, very strong on Iraq. And that is, I think, a set of positions that probably favors Bush.
John?
Anna is probably right, although there was another finding that I think may help the Democrats: evangelicals are pretty evenly divided as to whether American society is on the right track or the wrong track.
Are there signs, Anna, that evangelicals are becoming more tolerant?
Well, moral issues shape their worldview in pretty profound ways. But on a series of questions that we might assume in a very simplistic way they will just be knee-jerk, we actually found that they have a nuanced view. If you look at something like the question of gay marriage, the vast majority, 82 percent, are opposed to gay marriage. But if you asked, "Do we need a constitutional amendment, or are state laws sufficient?" only 42 percent say we need to amend the Constitution. I think there was some sense, probably on the right, that this would be sort of a home run with this base group for the Republican Party; but in fact, a majority thinks that the laws are okay. When we asked them, "Would you vote for a candidate who held a different position than you on the question of gay marriage?" only about 47 percent said, "I would vote against that candidate if they had a different view than me." The rest were okay. It's not even a litmus test for them. So I'm not sure if they're becoming more open or tolerant per se, but they certainly have nuanced views about these issues.

Part of being an evangelical is the imperative to proselytize, to evangelize, to convert. We find very strong evidence in the poll that evangelicals do that. They talk to their friends. They talk to their family. They talk to co-workers. Even about a third say they talk to strangers. But even more of them just talk about it informally. I think that's very important. It doesn't have to be a deliberate attempt to convert. It can just be spreading the "good news," talking with friends, talking with family. About 75 percent say on a weekly basis they just talk about these issues.
What surprised me the most was how part of the mainstream evangelicals are. They watch the same amount of television, they live in the same places, they go to churches of the same size. Everybody worries about moral values. They're set apart by their religious beliefs and the intensity of their faith. But in many ways, they're just like anybody else.