I don't know. It would be interesting to go back and look, because Jimmy Carter, of course, was an evangelical. In '76, he attracted a lot of them, because he was really the first contemporary evangelical to run for president. In terms of the 1980 vote, I couldn't tell you. Certainly, by '84, against Walter Mondale, I think you could argue that the evangelical vote had, in fact, turned to Ronald Reagan. My hunch is that 1980 was much more evenly divided.
People assume Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson represent the mainstream of evangelicals. That isn't necessarily true, is it?
That is correct. In fact, your own survey shows a fair amount of ambivalence among white evangelicals towards those two figures in terms of favorability rating. The pope has a similar, or better, favorable rating among white evangelicals than those two, which is astonishing.
Has George W. Bush lived up to evangelical expectations, would you think?
I think in the minds of some he has not, certainly on a number of social issues. There has been no real progress on abortion.
He got the so-called partial-birth abortion ban.
Right, but in empirical terms, nobody can give a number of how many of those abortions are actually performed in a year in America. To the extent anybody has put up a number, it's a tiny fraction of the overall number of abortions performed in America. So its value is more symbolic; it's not really a significant victory for antiabortion folk in this country. In terms of being a uniter, not a divider, there certainly has not been much progress on that. Washington remains as deeply divided on a partisan [basis] as perhaps [at] any time in recent memory. The war certainly has caused some ambivalence. I think a lot of evangelicals supported the war, thinking that our troops were going to be welcomed as liberators when they came into Baghdad. And here we are, a year later, and the war is getting worse. We've had 600 American deaths and almost 3,000 wounded. There is some ambivalence and nervousness there. And the economy has not improved. Evangelicals, who are mainstream Americans in the sense that their income level seems to put them pretty much in the middle of American society, have felt the disappearance of jobs. They have felt the decline in manufacturing. They have felt all of the fallout in some of these key states. The real question becomes, to what extent does the economic downturn trump some of these hot button values issues? It remains to be seen. It's not clear how that's going to play out when evangelicals enter the polling booth.
Is there any feeling among evangelicals that they're beginning not to trust President Bush?
I think the whole question of the credibility of the president cuts across all levels of American society. Again, it's too early to say that evangelicals have turned against this president because of his credibility problem. What it does say is that this election is a toss-up at this point, and that there is a significant percentage of evangelicals who are now willing to take a look at the other guy in a way that three years ago was probably not conceivable. The assumption would have been that the evangelicals will be completely behind this president. I think that's up for grabs at this point.
Do you think it's appropriate for politicians to equate their religious beliefs with their political outlook and to act on them?
I think it's completely appropriate for a presidential candidate to explain to the American people how his or her religious beliefs shape their policy. Particularly if a candidate is going out to religious constituencies and saying, "Vote for me," I think it's completely fair for Americans to ask, "Tell me a little more about your beliefs. How did you get here? How does your particular form of piety shape who you are as a politician?" I don't think politicians are particularly skilled in connecting those dots. Many times politicians of both parties look at constituencies as potential voters, not necessarily as people they need to explain themselves to. I have no problem whatsoever with political figures connecting the dots between their own theological beliefs and their policies. I think they owe that to voters, if in fact there is a connection.
Do you think that evangelical involvement in politics has altered their religious or theological views at all?
I guess it has some. Compared to 40 years ago, many evangelicals feel their values ought to be in play in shaping the national ethos. Forty, 50 years ago, a lot of evangelicals did see themselves -- and perhaps rightly so -- on the margins of American society. They were more interested in simply living their own lifestyle and less concerned about global issues and national issues. Certainly there has been an increase of influence on the politics of the day as evangelicals are drawn more and more into the political fray.
I've read that probably there is no more influential bloc of voters than evangelicals when it comes to this administration's foreign policy; Israel, for example. Do you agree with that? Or do you think it's overstated?
I think that's there. Certainly, evangelical support of the state of Israel -- and there are a host of theological reasons for that -- has had an impact. Perhaps in a less well-known way, countries like Sudan I think are now on this president's radar screen in a way they would not have been, had not specific evangelical voices held up Sudan as a country of concern. I think the whole issue of international religious freedom is one that was born in the '90s and was primarily driven by a handful of evangelicals. Now it is a mainstream human rights issue. We have a State Department office devoted strictly to international religious freedom. We have an independent U.S. commission on international religious freedom that brings together a broad coalition of religious voices in America. Interestingly, this issue had resonance with Bill Clinton, I think, because he was an evangelical. So there are many ways in foreign policy where the evangelical presence has in fact made a difference, I think.
Can it be counterproductive? I'll give as an example the security wall in Israel. While I was there recently, there were representatives of evangelical groups out in these settlements pushing the wall and saying, "Don't worry about the administration's position, this is the right thing to do." It may not be the right thing to do, at least certainly not in the near term. It could exacerbate more violence.
That's really the open question -- to what extent some of the evangelical leaders who support Israel so vociferously, how open are they going to be to the compromises that are going to be inherent in any kind of real peace settlement? How are they going to view Palestinian rights? I think that's an open question at this point. It's a question that needs to be answered. My hope is that the evangelical leaders who push American support for Israel will be equally eager to nudge the peace process along in a way that's going to have to happen in terms of compromise, where Palestinian rights are taken seriously. That's a huge, complicated nexus of issues. And it's not clear to me that evangelical leaders who support Israel so strongly are going to manifest the same level of energy for a peace settlement that involves compromise. It's just not clear where that's going to go.
Christ was always saying that you should look out for the least amongst you. Certainly, in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Palestinians are "the least." With our economic policy in this country, some people think if you aid those who have the most money, the money will trickle down to those who need it the most. Is there any kind of conflict [among] evangelicals on that?
Absolutely. I think there is a network of progressive evangelicals for whom poverty, and the relief of poverty, both domestically and globally, is the central political issue that comes out of their theology. These progressive evangelicals are increasingly uncomfortable with this president. In the last three years, poverty has gone up in America almost 10 percent. We have almost 35 million people living below the poverty line. The gap between rich and poor globally has never been wider than it is now, and it has grown in the last three years. That, I think, is part of the evangelical critique of this administration: that politically it has not made good on some of its promises to deal with the problem of poverty. The president's whole faith-based initiative, his willingness to bring churches into the federal social service provision network in a greater way, attracted a lot of moderate and progressive evangelicals before the election. Now, after three years, there is a growing sense of discontent that, while he has done some things through executive orders, he has not been able to expand that program and bring new money into the federal social service provision network to some of these faith-based organizations. They are upset with that. They are frustrated that he hasn't made progress on what seemed to be a central issue of his campaign when he first got elected.
Do you think evangelicals who have not seen as much progress on domestic issues as they would like are putting more emphasis on foreign policy issues?
I still believe that domestic issues are primary in the minds of most evangelicals. If you look at the issues that concern them most, it's the decline of moral values in America, the loss of jobs, the overall downturn in the economy, the lack of access to quality health care, Social Security. It seems like domestic issues still dominate their thinking. Iraq, for instance, in your own survey, is sixth or seventh on the list of the most pressing issue in the minds of evangelicals.
If you are a religious conservative, that you will also be a political conservative?
No. That's what makes this such a fascinating subject. Certainly, the majority of evangelicals who are conservative theologically, by definition, tend to vote conservatively. There is a correlation. Yet a significant number move into progressive politics. It's that strain of folk that I find particularly interesting. Go back to the civil rights movement, for instance. There were people like Clarence Jordan in Americus, Georgia, who established the interracial Koinonia Farm. Out of their vision of what New Testament discipleship was supposed to be about, they felt compelled to address race. You have groups like Call to Renewal today, founded by evangelicals. They have tried to bring together a number of Christians across a wide theological spectrum to address poverty as a central Christian concern. So the quick answer is no; the not-so-quick answer is to say, yes, most of them do tend to vote conservatively, but there is a significant number of conservative Protestant Christians in America today who see themselves as moderates, or see themselves as progressive politically. It would be remiss not to note those folks.
How big a factor are Hispanic evangelicals?
That's really hard to tell. It's not clear that they're going to be decisive, but certainly, if demographic trends continue, it's only a matter of time in places like Florida, Texas, New Mexico, maybe Arizona and California; their vote is going to become increasingly crucial. The Hispanic vote as a whole is becoming extremely crucial. Now, what slice of that can actually be called an evangelical vote, I don't think is clear at this point. But they certainly bear watching. I think they're going to be increasingly influential in a very short period of time.
You mentioned that the president has not really been the unifier so far that he spoke of being. Isn't it possible that, with so much religion in the air, in some ways it has become a divisive factor?
That's possible. I think what has complicated his task has been the war. It's difficult to call oneself a war president at the [same] time as trying to be a prewar uniter. Part of the rhetorical strategy of this administration has been: if you're not with us on the war, then you're against us. That immediately divides the country. Now, initially, the country supported the move to go into Afghanistan and also into Iraq. Those numbers have now changed. There is a deep ambivalence in American society over the viability of this war in Iraq. Religion is not going to be a tool that's going to help you paper over that difference. Until we come to some kind of resolution in Iraq, religion is not going to help a president of whatever party to unite the country completely. It may be that we've become too diverse and too pluralistic in our society to see religion as the thin veneer that unites us all. There was a day when scholars talked about "civil religion" -- a sort of non-Christological theism; in other words, invoking God as creator, God as sustainer of our country. You didn't hear people talking about God as the redeemer of our country, or Jesus as the sustainer of our country. It may be that we are so diverse now that that thin language of civil religion can no longer be the platform that brings the "unum" out of the "pluribus." It remains to be seen how a president can govern a country that is increasingly as diverse as ours. Religion is a source of division at some times. It's not clear if religion will serve as it used to, as a thin veneer that united the whole country because it presumed a certain set of Christian assumptions. As we become more pluralistic as a country, you can no longer assume there is that kind of unity of belief across this wide spectrum of American citizens. It remains to be seen.
People talk about the lack of civility on Capitol Hill in Washington. Is it possible that, because of the efforts of the Christian right, of evangelicals, that issues have changed to being about good or evil, and that really raises the stakes and somehow makes the end justify the means?
It's one of the sad ironies of Washington that on the Hill there is probably more public display of piety that at any other point in the history of the republic, and yet there is more personal animus between members of Congress across the aisle than in recent memory. To me, that's tragic, whether you're a liberal or conservative, or you're religious or irreligious, that you can't find within yourself a way to reach out across some of the political and religious divides on the Hill. It's sad to me, at least theologically, that the faith that is so deeply and dearly held on both sides of the aisle has not allowed people to bridge some of these gaps, but has fed it at times. I think that's absolutely tragic.
I spent some time a few weeks ago with Ray Flynn. I was asking him about the Catholic Church, and particularly Archbishop Burke's decision to deny Communion to candidates like Kerry. He sort of pooh-poohed it. He said, "Listen, we've never had less influence." It's almost like Catholics getting lost, with all the influence of evangelicals. What do you think of that whole phenomenon and what's happening in the Catholic Church?
I think this is a very fragile time for the leadership of the Catholic Church in the United States. Obviously, the clergy sexual misconduct scandal has deeply undermined the leadership's standing within the Catholic Church itself, but also in the wider society. It's not clear if they're going to be able to recover their voice anytime in the short run. I think that's sad, because, frankly, on the war, for instance, the Catholic Church had a very sophisticated, nuanced, deeply held, moral, Christian position of opposition to that war. And basically it got very little currency in the media, because it was being stomped by the larger scandal story. Catholic institutions in this society are providing help to the poor and marginalized. Catholic Charities are continuing to do their work on the ground. It's not clear if the institutional Church itself is going to recover the kind of public voice it had back in the '80s and the '90s. Certainly, it can make a great contribution to the common good in this country. It's not clear to me if they're going to know how to get back on track. At the same time, both political parties don't know how to relate to that hierarchy today. Obviously, John Kerry has a very ambivalent relationship to a couple of bishops at this point. I think this White House has distanced itself some from the Catholic leadership in the last three years, given some of the public scandal as well. They seem to be reaching out to a set of neoconservative Catholic intellectuals. I don't see that they have developed a strategy of reaching out beyond that small subset. This is where the rhetoric of compassionate conservatism helped them in 2000. It helped Bush reach out to persuadable Catholics. It helped him maintain his evangelical base. And it helped him reach out to some African Americans. You don't hear the president talking about compassionate conservatism anymore. I think it's tough to hang on to that at the same time you're saying we're on a war footing. Somehow, those two messages don't hold together. Compassionate conservatism has fallen out of the rhetorical arsenal at this point. I don't think either political party knows how to relate to the Catholic Church. It remains to be seen how that's going to play out.


Evangelicals are incredibly diverse. That's what makes them so fascinating to study. They're located all across the country. One friend of mine says it's like trying to herd cats. They are geographically, ethnically, and theologically diverse. And their churches tend to be decentralized. There is no one place you can go, no one person you can talk to who represents all evangelicals.