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Back in 1980, a string of three large quakes -- each around magnitude 6 -- rocked the caldera. Since then, swarms of small, imperceptible quakes have regularly lit up seismographs. Those quakes, some researchers suspect, mark the reemergence of volcanic activity in the caldera. There have been other indications too. "The center part of the volcano has been coming up -- doming --- at rates that vary from less than an inch to six inches a year," says Reid. "Different people have different interpretations, but I think that most people would agree that that means there is magma moving beneath the surface." Back in 1990, another dramatic sign of resurgent volcanic activity -- vast tree kills from huge amounts of carbon dioxide gas seeping out of the soil -- was first noted at Mammoth Mountain, near the ski resort town of Mammoth Lakes, on the southwestern edge of the caldera. By some estimates, a magma body may be located about seven miles beneath the caldera. Reid's own work suggests that it could be large. She's precisely dated zircon crystals embedded in lava flows from two small eruptions, 115,000 and 625 years ago. Although Reid thought that the crystals would be about as old as the lava flows, they turned out to be much older -- around 230,000 years old. That means, Reid thinks, that the zircons crystallized in the same magma body over two hundred thousand years ago. The magma then stayed molten until at least 625 years ago. "To keep that magma hot for so long," Reid says, "you'd need to have a pretty big magma chamber below the surface, with perhaps two hundred cubic kilometers of material." Mount St. Helens, for comparison, released only one to two cubic kilometers of volcanic material when it erupted in 1980. |
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