Daljit Dhaliwal: How is the State Department, for example, trying to be constructive in those types of talks, and do we for instance have some kind of formula that we can present to the two sides? Is there a peace plan of sorts?
Steven Pifer: Well, I don't think there's really a role for the United States here as a mediator. I mean, it's not our plan. What we're trying to do is encourage both sides, both the Russians, and we also have certain contacts with the moderate Chechens, encouraging them that the thing is they need to find a dialogue. They, I think, can then be smart enough to work out what the arrangements are.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And you said that there were negotiations between the Russians and Aslan Maskhadov. Is that somebody that the United States feels comfortable with as...
Steven Pifer: Yes.
Daljit Dhaliwal: ...somebody who has his pulse very much on the finger of the grievances of the Chechen people?
Steven Pifer: Well, when we look at Maskhadov, we think he is somebody who commands respect among a fairly broad cross section of Chechens, probably more so than any of the other senior Chechens at the moment.
He's also somebody who by virtue of his election in 1999 has a certain degree of legitimacy. So we see him as somebody who we think can be a spokesman for the Chechens, and we've encouraged the Russians to try to open a dialogue with him.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Do you see him as a moderate leader, though? I mean, given the problems that President Putin says he has in Chechnya with the Islamic fundamentalists infiltrating the ranks of moderate...
Steven Pifer: Right.
Daljit Dhaliwal: ...Chechen fighters, the nationalists effectively. Is he somebody who has control over the situation even?
Steven Pifer: Well, it's a very difficult situation because you have lots of different factions. There are some factions in Chechnya who we believe have connections to international terrorist organizations including al-Qaida. We don't put Maskhadov in that group.
And actually, that is one element of our approach towards Chechnya that has changed towards them since September 11th, is since September 11 we've called upon the moderate Chechens and said, you need to distance yourselves from these groups that are connected to al-Qaida and the other international terrorist organizations.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Are you saying that al-Qaida fighters have actually infiltrated the ranks of the moderate Chechens or...
Steven Pifer: It's more there are different factions. And we just said that the moderate factions need to put some distance between them and these other groups.
And what we've heard in response is, we've heard the right answer, they've said, yes, we understand the importance of doing that. What we haven't seen, though, is real action to sort of create that divide.
And I think until there is that distance, that's probably one of the things that makes it difficult for the Russians to deal or and open some kind of a negotiating dialogue with.
Daljit Dhaliwal: If the Chechens were able to put as you say a distance between themselves and the al-Qaida fighters and between the other foreign extremists, Islamic extremists who are in Pankisi Gorge in particular in Georgia which borders Chechnya, would that change the US position at all in terms of whether you would then support the Chechnya position on independence, or are you still very much firmly coming down on the Russian side that it has to be...
Steven Pifer: Well, the United States government took a decision when the Soviet Union broke up that we would recognize the successor states within their current boundaries. And part of that was a concern that once you begin to undo a boundary you could potentially open up a big can of worms. And you only have to look at Yugoslavia to see how difficult these situations can be once you begin to try to redraw borders.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And also look at the kind of resolution that we have now in Yugoslavia.
Steven Pifer: We have that resolution but after a lot of pain and a lot of suffering.
Dalit Dhaliwal: But that's also happening in Chechnya right now.
Steven Pifer: It's happening in Chechnya, we don't want to see that happen elsewhere within Russia.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And you talked a little bit about the kind of dialogue that you would like to see. I mean, is it just talks about talks, sort of similar to what we saw in Northern Ireland, or are you confident that we can actually achieve a real breakthrough here?
Steven Pifer: Well, what we hope is that the Russians and the Chechens can sit down, work out arrangements, first of all, to end the fighting, work out arrangements that would allow for conditions for the return of the many displaced persons. And then later on they can tackle the ultimate issue of the status of Chechnya.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And what is the situation with regard to the refugees? I understand that Russia wants to try and make them go home. What is the US position of how they're dealing with that?
Steven Pifer: Well, we estimate now around 400 to 450,000 people living in Chechnya, probably about 150,000 of that number are displaced in refugee camps and such. And you probably have another 150,000 Chechens in the neighboring republic of Ingushetia.
Our view is, and it's very consistent with the United Nations' view, is that displaced persons, if they're going to return, it should be a voluntary return. And we've been very clear on that message, the United Nations has been very clear, that refugees are not forced to return, it should be voluntary.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Are we getting access, is the United States getting access in the kind of way that it would like to refugees on the ground in terms of providing them with assistance?
Steven Pifer: We have a fairly active assistance program. Over the last two and a half years we've provided about $45 million both through American non-governmental organizations but also through the United Nations and the International Committee on the Red Cross.
So that's going to help the displaced persons both in Chechnya and in some of the neighboring regions. And as part of that, people at our embassy in Moscow do get into the area. It's difficult sometimes to get into Chechnya, but they do have some access which allows us a) to ensure that our efforts and assistance are coordinated with what other international organizations are doing, but also to give us some sense that in fact the assistance is targeted to the right needs.
Daljit Dhaliwal: I just wanted to touch a little bit on how Russia is actually prosecuting this war. It's going around and it's stoking the fires of extremism -- the very situation that we saw in Afghanistan. If something isn't done about this and some kind of concrete ways of tackling this situation, we are looking at lots of mini Afghanistan, aren't we, potentially?
Steven Pifer: Well, our concern is that the tactics that the Russian forces are using when they don't abide by international norms, when they are committing these human rights abuses. What they are doing is they are pushing more Chechens towards joining the fighters and also towards a radical Islam.
So we think in this regard Russian tactics are very counter-productive towards what I think Russia ultimately would like to see in Chechnya.
Daljit Dhaliwal: But also very counter productive to the United States' global war against terrorism and there we need to have some kind of interjection with the Russians and come down very strongly and get in their face about what they're doing in Chechnya.
Steven Pifer: This is something that we are concerned about. And again, this is one of the reasons why we talk to them about these abuses on a regular basis.
There was some hope back in March or April where the Russian commander in Chechnya put out a new order, referred to as Order No. 80, which began to say things like, troops on sweeps had to have documentation. There couldn't be just seizures of people without any explanation of what was happening. No masks, identify themselves. Moving towards what we would call a normal military or law enforcement type operation.
Daljit Dhaliwal: But that hasn't happened, and our film actually proves that, because some of those scenes that we saw, those appalling scenes, were actually filmed after Order 80 was put in place.
Steven Pifer: That's right. I mean, the problem that we have now is while this order has been put out, as far as we can tell it is not being widely observed. And that again is just going to continue to contribute to the counter-productive activities that are going to drive more Chechens towards taking up arms against the Russians.
Daljit Dhaliwal: The conflict in Chechnya has sometimes been compared to Russia's Vietnam. What's your view on that? Do you think that's an apt analogy?
Steven Pifer: I'm not sure if that's the best analogy. I mean, I think if you're looking for a more appropriate analogy it was probably Afghanistan.
Daljit Dhaliwal: What does the way again that Russia's prosecuting this war, what does that tell you about Russia's political culture? Are they really moving towards the West?
Steven Pifer: Well, I think to be fair we have to understand the complexity of the situation in Chechnya. After the first conflict in 1996 concluded, the Russians really withdrew from Chechnya and said, in essence, full autonomy. You Chechens, you can run Chechnya as long as it stays as part of Russia.
And by all observers, at best the situation was chaotic. But you had criminal activities, kidnapping, murders, trafficking of all kinds. It really was in chaos. And I think by early 1999 in Russia there was concern about, could you let this kind of disorder continue? So I'm not sure it's fair to say the Russians are just looking to go, and I don't think they want to go in and simply violate human rights. But they saw a real situation here and they were trying to find a way to come to grips with it.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Now, I'm not saying it's any kind of efficient policy, but...
Steven Pifer: Right.
Daljit Dhaliwal: ...certainly on the ground, I'll want to relate that to our film again...
Steven Pifer: Yes.
Daljit Dhaliwal: ...we're seeing Chechen civilians suffer terribly. We have a huge refugee crisis in countries like Ingushetia.
Steven Pifer: I don't think this is a policy that comes from Moscow, but it does underline the importance that the Russian military needs to instill and maintain discipline, and that's not happening.
Daljit Dhaliwal: But Putin must know that these abuses are taking place.
Steven Pifer: I don't think he is blind to that fact. Again, you have a problem in sort of, how does the order get translated from the center out to the commanders in the field.
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