Daljit Dhaliwal: How was Putin able to convince the military in the political elite that they shouldn't be nervous about US presence, not just in the Caucasus but also in Central Asia? I mean, there were four former Soviet republics.
Steven Pifer: Well, I think in the case of Central Asia, it was interesting, because in the second part of September after the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, as we began to look at Afghanistan and begin to move forces into the Central Asian area, you did see concerns expressed by some members of the Russian political elite.
And I think a number of those, again, were still seeing Central Asia as the object of a great game for US-Russian competition.
President Putin didn't see it in that way, and he understood that the presence there was designed to deal with al-Qaida and the Taliban, and that was something I think he was prepared to support in large part because Russian objectives with regards to the Taliban and al-Qaida very much were consistent with the American objectives.
Daljit Dhaliwal: I just want to also turn to the issue of oil in the caucuses...
Steven Pifer: Right.
Daljit Dhaliwal: ...and in Central Asia. I mean, that must be one of our concerns, we want to keep our eye on that one as well, don't we?
Steven Pifer: Well, certainly when we look at the Caspian basin, we see a potential source of both oil and gas that can be very beneficial if we can move it to international markets. So that means when you look at the Caucasus...
Daljit Dhaliwal: It's the world's largest untapped oil reserve.
Steven Pifer: There's huge potential there. And it's going to be something that the United States, Europe and others are going to look to for future energy sources. So that gives us a very strong interest in promoting stability in the Caucasus, helping these countries develop in terms of consolidating democratic institutions, in terms of developing stronger economies because those countries, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan are going to be the transit routes for some of this energy.
Daljit Dhaliwal: That also lessens our dependence on the Iraqi oil.
Steven Pifer: Our view is that in terms of promoting more sources of energy that can only be beneficial for the world economy.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Our presence in Central Asia and in the Caucasus puts us in very close proximity to Iraq. What are your feelings on that?
Steven Pifer: Well, our military presence now in Central Asia is really focused on the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan. I mean, that's the proximity that's geographically important to us.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And our presence in Central Asia and in the Caucasus wouldn't serve as some kind of launching pad for an attack against the Iraqi regime?
Steven Pifer: Really the focus of these deployments have been Afghanistan.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And in terms of the overall picture, if Chechnya isn't stabilized, this could really blow up in our faces not just in terms of becoming mini-Afghanistans but do you see it leading to global destabilization?
Steven Pifer: I'm not sure our concern about Chechnya is it's destabilizing for Russia. It's a distraction to Russia. President Putin has said he wants to bring Russia into the modern world, he wants to transform Russia in terms of a modern economy, a modern political system. Chechnya is going to...
Daljit Dhaliwal: Institutions have become less and less democratic since Putin took over.
Steven Pifer: Building democracy is a difficult process, and our view is Chechnya is not going to help, it's going to hinder moving in that direction.
But it also, it's a problem in terms of the Caucasus. As we look at that area, having this kind of war just north of the Georgian border, that isn't going to help us promote stability in Georgia and in that region.
Daljit Dhaliwal: What are the chances of the two sides coming to the table and engaging in political dialogue?
Steven Pifer: Well, I think it's a hard one to predict and I wouldn't want to make a guess either way. I'm hopeful, but I don't know exactly how to describe the odds to you, but it's important that they do find a way to dialogue because that's the only way we see Russia and Chechnya getting out of this tragedy.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Well, who's to say that the extremist, pro-Taliban elements within the rebel ranks wouldn't be the ones that actually rise into power?
Steven Pifer: Well this is one of the reasons why we think there needs to be a dialogue between Moscow and the moderate Chechens, so that you can exclude the radical elements from the equation.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And Russia has said that the war is over, what is all that about?
Steven Pifer: Well, the Russians have said that they're going to begin to withdraw some of their military forces, that they can wind the conflict down. I think that's a proposition that still remains to be seen because we still continue to see reports of military actions being conducted.
Daljit Dhaliwal: Why would they say that if the war's going on? Is Putin just deluding himself?
Steven Pifer: Ah, I think President Putin is fairly smart about the situation there. That may express more of a hope - because they would like to wind this down - rather than an expectation. We'll have to see.
Daljit Dhaliwal: So they're winding the war down, but the war is certainly not over as we saw in our film. The war is very much continuing to claim victims across the board, on all sides.
Steven Pifer: Yeah, that's right. We see the conflict continuing and again, that's why we think there has to be some kind of a dialogue and negotiated settlement because the war- the level of conflict may drop, but it's hard for us to see how it's going to end without some kind of a political solution.
Daljit Dhaliwal: America very much wants to engage with Russia, wants to see it move West-wards. That's what they say they'd like to do - do you believe them?
Steven Pifer: I think yes. And I think where President Putin is coming from is he wants to modernize Russia, he wants to restore some of the power that Russia's had in the past. So he looks at things like economic reform and I think he realizes, for example, that the market economy is the way that Russia has to go if it wants to build a robust economy. So he's prepared to do things like bring Russia into the World Trade Organization. Likewise, he looks at legal reform-
Daljit Dhaliwal: Would we support that bid, for Russia to get into the WTO?
Steven Pifer: We are very supportive of Russia's bid to enter the World Trade Organization. Now it has to be on the basis of norms that we ask of any other country trying to join. From our perspective that's a way to underpin and encourage economic reform within Russia, which we think is ultimately going to be-
Daljit Dhaliwal: So we're talking about engagement, the kind of engagement that we had with China, in terms of getting it to the WTO, completely disregarding human rights?
Steven Pifer: Well, we're talking about a process that brings the Russian economy into the global economy, but we're not doing it in a way that sets aside world human rights and again we have continued to raise this issue with the Russians and we will continue to do so. Until there is an end to the sorts of abuses that you saw in the film in Chechnya, we're going to continue talking to the Russians about these problems and about how this is an obstacle not just in the development in US-Russian relations, but also how that's going to be an obstacle in Russia's desire to integrate more closely to Europe and the world.
Daljit Dhaliwal: But, at the same time, we see this rise in nationalism in Russia, hardly compatible with the advent of democratic institutions. It's not a very good example of moving towards the West and democracy.
Steven Pifer: It's a bumpy process. There's both good news and there's bad news. For example, on legal reform, President Putin and his administration are working through with the Russian parliament, legislation that would truly make the Russian court system independent, would introduce trial by jury on a widespread scale - very positive for the judicial branch in Russia.
So, we're seeing some setbacks, we're also seeing some progress. And understand the nature of the transformation that Russia's going through - it's changing the economy, it's changing the political system, it's changing the whole way that Russia engages with the outside world. Each one of those processes is very difficult to conduct. They're trying to do three simultaneously against a very difficult backdrop and Chechnya's not helping that.
Daljit Dhaliwal: All those processes that you described have left a huge mess in Russia. I mean we have some people who have benefited incredibly, become millionaires, but the vast majority of Russians are living in appalling situations of poverty.
Steven Pifer: I think there was an expectation and what we've seen in other countries that used to have the communist economic system is that the transformation is very difficult. If you look at the central European economies - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic - all took a nosedive in economic terms as they began this transformation. At a certain point, it bottoms out and they begin to realize growth and they begin to see the benefits of the change.
In the last couple of years, you've actually seen some fairly significant economic growth in Russia and we're hopeful that is a sign that some of the changes that they've imposed over the last ten years in terms of re-structuring the economy are actually beginning to take effect.
Daljit Dhaliwal: And how long do you think the United States should stand by while these processes are going on? Is there going to come a time when we say twenty, thirty, forty years down the line, Russia's experiment with democratic institutions, with democracy hasn't worked, it's time for us to pull the plug?.
Steven Pifer:
Actually, I'm an optimist about this. I think the process is going to be a long one - longer than we expected or hoped for back in the early 1990s, after the break-up of the Soviet Union. But I think Russia is moving in the right direction - not as quickly as we would like - and the important thing, it's in our interest that Russia do so.
If you look at Russia developing modern democratic institutions, a market economy that fits nicely into the global economy, it begins to adopt a foreign policy that is supportive of Western policies. And we're seeing that. We're seeing it in counter-terrorism, in strategic arms reductions, in joint efforts in the Middle East.
That's the kind of Russia that we want to see develop. They're already a partner in important areas and we want to encourage that.
Daljit Dhaliwal:
The Chechens have been fighting for independence for quite a long time. They have a history that stretches back a thousand years, their own language, their own culture. Why shouldn't the US support them in their bid for freedom?
Steven Pifer:
Well, we look at the Chechens and we see a situation where there is an effort at separatism. We made a decision back in 1991 that we would support each of the states of the former Soviet Union in the context of their current borders, to support their territorial integrity.
And our fear is that if we acknowledge the right of the Chechens or another group unilaterally to secede from Russia, you open up a can of worms and you might have other parts of Russia begin to move in that direction. We don't think that's a healthy process for Russia, we don't think that's a healthy process for Europe.
Daljit Dhaliwal:
Why not?
Steven Pifer:
Because when you look at that unraveling it brings in all signs of concerns and you don't want to have a repetition, for example, of the Yugoslavia experience. And again, when we look at Russia increasingly moving in the direction of being a partner of the United States, we see that Russia- it should be a strong Russia. We want to have a strong partner that's working with us.
Daljit Dhaliwal:
Ambassador Steven Pifer, thank you very much for joining us on Wide Angle.
Steven Pifer:
Thank you, I've enjoyed being here.
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