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BILL MOYERS:
Like the U.N.?
JAMES DOBBINS:
Like the U.N. But, the U.N. in itself, without U.S. backing and participation will, I think, not be adequate to the task.
BILL MOYERS:
Have you met Guy Philippe?
JAMES DOBBINS:
I have not.
BILL MOYERS:
Guy Philippe certainly comes across in the film as a charismatic person with an aura, like John F. Kennedy, I remember in 1960, 1959 and 1960. Do you pin any hopes on him?
JAMES DOBBINS:
Well, Aristide was nothing but charisma. I mean, he was a very attractive figure -- well-spoken, tremendous appeal to the population. And, there's still a lot of loyalty and support in the population, although much less than he had a decade ago. Guy Philippe's background is a rather checkered one. I didn't hear anything in what he had to say which indicates how he would govern or how we would use the power had he had it to change Haitian society for the better.
One can always hope, but he didn't strike me as somebody who had a carefully thought-through and convincing program for reform in Haiti.
BILL MOYERS:
You've echoed here what we heard in the film that Haiti is so deeply mired in poverty that it seems a hopeless basket case. Why is it so mired in poverty? How did it get into this deep hole?
JAMES DOBBINS:
Well, I think it's really two centuries of isolation and at least the first century of rather vicious discrimination that gave Haiti a very poor start.
BILL MOYERS:
The racism of the outside world?
JAMES DOBBINS:
The racism of the outside world, which refused to recognize it.
BILL MOYERS:
Especially the United States.
JAMES DOBBINS:
The United States failed to recognize it for the first 50 years of its existence -- had no diplomatic relations with it whatsoever. France imposed an enormous indemnity for the losses as the result of the revolution, which freed Haiti. And, even in the decades after Haiti became a member of the international community, it was largely ignored. It has enjoyed brief periods of interest in Washington and the U.S. has made several efforts to promote reform. But, they've usually been short-lived and in recent years there's been such a high level of controversy in Washington over our policy toward Haiti that it's very difficult for the United States to make an enduring impact there.
BILL MOYERS:
So if we don't do this nation-building in Haiti, can Haiti go it alone?
JAMES DOBBINS:
I don't think it's very likely. I think that most societies in conflict in the world are societies that have been in conflict before. Most societies that come out of conflict are going to go back into conflict. It's only when the international community intervenes in a fairly decisive fashion and makes an enduring commitment that societies coming out of conflict stay out of conflict. And, we've seen those kinds of commitments work fairly effectively. I think the U.N. peacekeeping force in Haiti is essential. I think the U.N. is doing as a good a job as it reasonably can be expected to do, but I think unless Haiti's biggest, most powerful neighbor becomes more associated with the effort it's not likely to be effective.
BILL MOYERS:
Given the obsession of the United States right now with Iraq, do you see any possibility that the administration would get involved in Haiti?
JAMES DOBBINS:
I don't see a short term possibility for a greater American involvement in Haiti, but I hope over time those attitudes may change. I think if these elections produce a reasonably positive result, that could become a basis for a greater commitment. One of the reasons that there's a reluctance to commit is because the present government in Haiti is so ineffectual and disappointing. On the other hand, if the elections turn out to be a disaster, very low levels of participation, contested results, intimidation against candidates, that too might produce some change. We'll just have to wait and see.
BILL MOYERS:
So, what do you, James Dobbins, pin your hopes for Haiti on?
JAMES DOBBINS:
Well, I can't say that I have high hopes. I'm somewhat pessimistic. I believe that you're going to need to develop a consensus in Washington between Republicans and Democrats to make an enduring commitment to Haiti.
BILL MOYERS:
You are an idealist.
JAMES DOBBINS:
And, I think in the absence of that it's going to be very difficult for the United States to influence the situation there in an enduring and consistent fashion, which is going to be necessarily to introduce the changes. Now, we've had bipartisan policies towards other parts of the world toward the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the Cold War.
Toward Israel and Palestine, toward most of Asia. The Caribbean really -- Haiti, Cuba and Latin America -- have been much more partisan in American foreign policy over the last several decades than our attitudes toward most of the rest of the world, and it really does paralyze our ability to carry through long term programs, which are the only kind that are going to make an impact in a society as corrupted as Haiti.
BILL MOYERS:
James Dobbins, thank you very much for being with us on WIDE ANGLE.
JAMES DOBBINS:
Pleasure.
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James Dobbins, International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation
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