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BILL MOYERS:
It's common for Americans to describe Iran as a theocracy. Is that fair? Is that accurate?
JUDITH KIPPER:
Yeah, I think that's fair. But, it's also a --
BILL MOYERS:
Ruled in the name of God.
JUDITH KIPPER:
Right. And an authoritarian regime. And the reference point is ruling in the name of God.
BILL MOYERS:
Can democracy coexist with theocracy?
JUDITH KIPPER:
I think it can because the young people in Iran crave democracy. And obviously, nobody gives up power willingly. They've already had a revolution. I don't believe there will be another one. But I think if there's a change of generations, that they can be the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the Supreme Leader that provides the inspiration, but that the presidency of Iran will have more power and they will be ruled by technocrats within the context of being an Islamic Republic. They can be a democracy.
BILL MOYERS:
In a theocracy that has some symbol of democratic institutions, and a variety of other competing institutions, what does reform mean to them? When we hear these young people talk about "we want reform," "liberalization," what are the Iranians talking about when they talk about reform?
JUDITH KIPPER:
Well, there are two kinds of reform. The new president will talk about reform as providing better job services and economic opportunities for the poor and the down and out as a populace. But, he's going to want to command economy. He'll increase their hideous bureaucracy and that's not really reform. The young people are talking about being a normal country. They make choices. If they want to be very religious, they can. If they prefer to be more secular, they can. To have decent jobs that will pay them a living wage. To have the opportunity to attend university.
Two hundred thousand places in university, 1.5 million applicants every year. And that's one of the promises of the new president. That he's going to increase the number of universities so that more than 200,000, who also go because their parents are so-and-so, and they said a word to this one or that one, it's a lot of patronage to get sent to university. And you are left with 1.3 million who have no jobs and no university.
BILL MOYERS:
So they're talking about more personal opportunity.
JUDITH KIPPER:
That's right. Or economic opportunities. More personal opportunities. And more openness.
BILL MOYERS:
But this recent election that brought this hard-liner into the presidency as a populace. All but eight of the candidates were disqualified by the Guardian Council. They weren't allowed to run. No women were allowed to run. That doesn't strike me as democratic reform.
JUDITH KIPPER:
Well, there is not democratic reform now. There was some years ago when Khatami came into power after Ayatollah Khomeini's death. But, the conservatives managed to consolidate power both in the Parliament and now in the presidency, in the cabinet, and the Justice Ministry. Absolutely every place. But, that hasn't stopped the very youthful population, and others, the intellectuals, many of the elite, from demanding and wanting more openness and democratization -- to have more choice. But, I believe Iran will develop as a serious democracy. But, it's not going to be Western style democracy.
BILL MOYERS:
You're talking about a country that President Bush has described as the number one state sponsored terrorism in the world. You're talking about a country the State Department continually condemns. You're saying this country's going to be a democracy?
JUDITH KIPPER:
I believe it will. The Secretary of State recently said about Iran that it was now a post of tyranny. It is true that Iran supports groups that do terrorism. And the ones we worry about are Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories. But that's not the whole picture. Right now, the Iranians themselves, since President Khatami came to office, there was a change in Iran. They're not doing state terrorism as they used to. We've had many moments before the Iraq War, Afghanistan, where there's been intelligence and military understanding, cooperation, discussions with the Iranians. Anti-Iranian rhetoric doesn't cost the American politicians anything. The American people we know from the polls are ready to reconcile with Iran, if there's reciprocity. And for all these years since the revolution, the Iranians are not yet ready to talk to us.
BILL MOYERS:
Is it possible that Iran is going to develop the way China has developed with the government allowing increasing personal freedoms, but cracking down on political dissent and protest? So, that they have consumer goods. They have opportunities economically. They can live their personal lives more or less as they might want to, just as long as they don't criticize, attack, oppose the government?
JUDITH KIPPER:
Well, I don't think you can compare Iran and China because the cultures are so different. The Chinese can stay quiet. The Iranians can't. I do think that that is exactly what's going to happen. They will not allow any political dissent. They will crackdown on political dissent. But not on the social issues.
BILL MOYERS:
You have to excuse me if I scratch my head and say how can we even claim that that is moving towards democracy?
JUDITH KIPPER:
Well, I don't think we can. They're not moving right now towards democracy. But the potential in the future as the older generation dies off and is replaced, as it's been proven over and over and over again that the command economy is not going to work, their population is growing. There are 65, 70 million people today. While their birth rate has dropped, they're still a very young and growing population.
BILL MOYERS:
What do we have to fear from a country like that? What do we have to fear from Iran?
JUDITH KIPPER:
I think that the fear of Iran is highly exaggerated. When we look at Iran, it is a stable country of institutions. We don't like their rhetoric. We don't like their government. We don't like their institutions. But I don't really believe that Iran poses a threat to American interests. Certainly, our inability to engage with Iran is very detrimental to American interests because we have a common set of interests, which we have always had during the Shah, during the Ayatollah Khomeini…
BILL MOYERS:
Which are?
JUDITH KIPPER:
Security in the Gulf, the free flow of oil at reasonable prices, stability between Iraq and Iran, which were the two competing powers. Right now they have very good relations. But as that Arab-Persian rivalry doesn't get out of hand as it did in an eight-year war. Central Asia, which is very problematic, a lot of issues in Central Asia. And, when you look at a country like Pakistan, which has about 20 percent literacy as compared to 90-something percent in Iran, it has the problem of the madrassas. 13,000 madrassas in Pakistan. And they are very important as educational institutions for poor people. But also as schools for people who grow up and are ready to do violence. And Pakistan is a nuclear power. Nevertheless, Pakistan has been, except for a very brief period since 1959, the closest ally of the United States. And I think that many people call Pakistan the most dangerous country in the world because of their youthful population. Because they are not sure of who is doing what. As a base of terrorism and because they are a nuclear power. Iran is a different story. We need to find ways to engage Iran. They're not ready. Maybe in four years they'll be ready. After all, this Persia -- this is an ancient culture.
BILL MOYERS:
If you can't engage with a culture that doesn't want to engage with you --
JUDITH KIPPER:
That's right. We have to wait. It's only been 25 years since the revolution. We want to do it tomorrow morning at breakfast.
BILL MOYERS:
Would you recommend that we establish diplomatic relations with Iran?
JUDITH KIPPER:
If they would do it, absolutely.
BILL MOYERS:
But they won't.
JUDITH KIPPER:
It won't be, you know, ambassador level. But if we possibly can engage with Iran to talk a whole set of issues.
BILL MOYERS:
It's curious to me that one of Iran's neighbors in Central Asia --
JUDITH KIPPER:
Uzbekistan.
BILL MOYERS:
And we have ties with --
JUDITH KIPPER:
Very close ties.
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Judith Kipper, Director, Middle East Forum, Council on Foreign Relations
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