Visit Your Local PBS Station PBS Home PBS Home Programs A-Z TV Schedules Watch Video Support PBS Shop PBS Search PBS
Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE

Search

In the News
» Feature Stories



border
TV Program Opinion & Analysis Resources spacer
spacer
spacer
spacer
Feature Stories spacer
Accounting worries could ease with a return to simpler days
Investors looking to avoid financial reporting scandals might find solace in traditional, less complicated businesses


spacer Print this Print this spacer Email this Email this spacer Submit a Question Submit a Question

The recent flood of accounting scandals has many investors wondering if there's a sector immune from accounting hijinks, but financial planners and market analysts have a quick answer:

There are none.

But hope isn't completely lost. Analysts say there are ways to identify companies less likely to push the boundaries of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

Finding these companies has become critical for investors, many of whom sold their stocks as overall confidence in corporations has plummeted. Simply put, accounting concerns at Enron, Tyco and Adelphia have put investors on edge, and with good reason.

The stock market is based on solid financial information and disclosure, but companies have been fooling around with the numbers. A few of the items rattling Wall Street include earnings that don't account for numerous expenses; revenue swapping with partners; and off-balance sheet transactions.

"To some degree the investing public has always considered the stock market a casino, but at least it's a fair casino," said Jeffrey Saut, a strategist at Raymond James. "Now more and more investors are sensing the game is rigged."

Financial planners say that investors increasingly must take accounting oversight in their own hands. That means reading company filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (not to mention all the footnotes), paying attention to news and following Peter Lynch's oft-quoted axiom: "look to what you know."

"I don't think there is anything out there that is safe," said Karl H. Romero, a Santa Ana, Calif. investment adviser with Karl H. Romero & Associates, a unit of LPL Financial. "Whatever stocks you follow you have to watch very closely."

Given that investors are increasingly tiptoeing around accounting land mines, it's no surprise that Wall Street is going with what it deems to be "safe."

It's a case of simplicity, said Louis P. Stanasolovich, a financial planner at Legend Financial Advisors in Pittsburgh. "Companies that are less complex and don't do a lot of acquisitions are in," he said.

Small and mid-sized companies tend to be focused on one core business. Without a slew of divisions, it's a little harder to cook the books, said analysts.

The relative numbers tell the tale. Both the Standard & Poor's Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indexes were up 4 percent and 5 percent year-to-date through May 31, according to an analysis by Credit Suisse First Boston. Although both the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indexes fell into negative territory in June, those indices are still holding up better overall than the S&P 500.

"The odds of more pure accounting are among the Mid-Caps on down," Saut said, adding that it pays to be skeptical about companies that cite pro forma earnings, EBITDA and pages of footnotes to explain financials.

Meanwhile, conglomerates such as General Electric raise questions in the minds of some observers. Serial acquirers such as Tyco and WorldCom are out. And an increasing number of investors these days shun dream stocks of the 1990s such as Cisco Systems.

"Big conglomerates used to imply safety because there were diversified businesses," Romero said. "Now you don't know what's valid and what's not. There's too much."

According to Sujatha R. Avutu, co-manager of the Evergreen Growth & Income Fund, companies that avoid accounting blowups share similar characteristics:

  • Simple business models.

  • Growth that doesn't rely on serial acquisitions.

  • Conservative accounting and transparent financial reporting.

Although no sector is completely safe, Avutu said retailing, apparel, food and beverage, oil and transportation companies are some of the ones that produce better stock price returns relative to other sectors.

"Generally it's the old economy companies," Avutu said. "You still have to be broadly diversified as an investor."

The top performing S&P 500 sectors year-to-date through May 31 were consumer staples, up 11 percent, and materials, up 10 percent. Former high-flying sectors such as telecommunications services, down 27 percent, and information technology, down 22 percent, were on the skids. The energy sector squeaked out a 3 percent gain year to date with utilities down 9 percent for the year, and might have performed better if not for an Enron-induced hangover, said analysts.

Digging below the surface of the S&P 500, it's clear that investors are looking to businesses that are easy to understand. Dillards, a department store chain in the South and Midwest, is up 88 percent year-to-date; Big Lots, a close-out retailer, is up 72 percent; Newmont Mining is up 63 percent and household names such as Maytag, up 44 percent, and Pepsi Bottling, up 41 percent, have also fared well.

Many analysts believe that Wall Street's current infatuation with old-economy companies indicates a return to traditional investment values.

"People are buying what they understand and keeping it simple," said Stanasolovich.

Companies focused on "financial plays"--techniques to make their books look better to Wall Street--instead of hard assets tended to be the ones that found themselves with accounting problems, said Paul R. Brazina, an accounting professor at LaSalle University in Philadelphia. Ultimately companies need strong boards of directors and auditing controls, he said.

Any corporation can fudge its numbers, but "a company that is grounded in traditional manufacturing and customer service values" can be a better bet, Brazina said.

Brokerages apparently agree.

Merrill Lynch's list of "Focus Stocks" includes the likes of Avon Products, Costco Wholesale, United Parcel Service and Southwest Airlines - companies with a clear line of business. Meanwhile, Banc of America Securities "Fresh Money Focus List" last week included Dial and Gillette. And Raymond James' Saut is a big fan of Newell Rubbermaid.

Saut said those old standby companies serve as comfort food in a market rattled by accounting worries. "The accounting has become so complex," Saut said. "That people want sectors like retail. Retail is pretty straightforward."

-- Larry Dignan has been a business journalist for several years. He owns 31 shares of General Electric.

spacer spacer

Home | Contact Us | About Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE
Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Help | ORDER Weekly Transcripts

© Copyright 2002 - 2004 Maryland Public Television and FORTUNE. All rights reserved. FORTUNE is a registered trademark of Time, Inc. used under license.

spacer


Editorials
» Colvin: Helpless to save ourselves
» Gibbs: Dodging the falling dollar


Weekly Poll
border border border Describe the current state of real estate investing?
border
border border
border border

Program Underwriters Nuveen Investments
ETFConnect, Where knowledge, power and success converge




spacer
spacer
border