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Just a guess here. You don't want to read all about it. You're not feeling too friendly toward media stocks right now, and who could blame you? The group is already down 14% this year. And maybe you're tired of hearing noise about multiple distribution channels. Somebody should put together a sitcom called Synergy. Unlike most of the real sitcoms out there, this one's actually...laughable.

But investors never tune out completely. "People are looking for good stories in this group," says analyst Lowell Singer of Robertson Stephens. The key is finding a few with happy endings. With that in mind, we've come up with three strategies to sift through the media mess.

Play the Ad Recovery

The best news for media companies right now is that many signs point to a comeback in the advertising market. The results of the recent "up-front" selling season for network television advertising were encouraging, with General Electric's NBC leading the way. "The pie is growing again," says Mario Gabelli, a veteran investor in media stocks through his Gabelli Funds. "You look at who's going to get a bigger share of that pie."

That will not be Walt Disney. The recession has been tough on the Mouse, which gets 25% of its revenue from advertising, much of it from its ABC network. Two years of double-digit drops in the ratings have wiped out profits from the overused Who Wants to Be a Millionaire and left the network as must-flee TV. Even a robust recovery won't help that division enough.

A purer play on the ad recovery is Fox Entertainment, which gets roughly half its revenue from advertising and is 85% owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.. Successful movies like Moulin Rouge are boosting profits. But Fox is losing former hits like Ally McBeal, and parent News Corp. recently took a $900 million write-down after overpaying for U.S. sports rights. At these prices, the picture's too murky for us.

That leaves Viacom as the best play on the ad comeback. Like Fox, it gets half its revenues from advertising, and it is poised for a revenue bonanza since hit shows like Everybody Loves Raymond and CSI have established its CBS network as a solid second behind NBC. Add the success of cult hit The Osbournes on MTV and a surprisingly strong up-front season for fledgling network UPN, and Viacom has "the best operating momentum of any big media company now," says Jill Krutick of Salomon Smith Barney. It may also have the strongest balance sheet in its peer group and throws off massive amounts of free cash flow--an expected $2.6 billion this year. The only drawback is price. The stock is up 11% this year, but that's still 13% off its 52-week high. Krutick's 12-month price target is $60.

Roll the Dice on Value

Trolling for good assets on the cheap can be risky. Consider Vivendi Universal. After a rough spring for embattled CEO Jean-Marie Messier, it's hard to tell if the stock has just gone for a dip--or if it's sinking for good. It has fallen more than 50% in the past year. A value? We think not. Messier survived rumors of his demise, but his countrymen in France are seething about his move to New York. And the company's holdings in European telecom and pay-TV scare off many. "Too complicated a balance sheet," says Mark Greenberg of the Invesco Leisure fund.

If any stock has suffered more indignity than Vivendi, it's AOL Time Warner. FORTUNE's parent company has fallen a painful 65% since the January 2001 merger--50% in 2002 alone. We have been as skeptical as anybody of AOL's strategy, but even some naysayers are beginning to see value in the company. Goldman Sachs' Rich Greenfield says the share price virtually ignores AOL itself, a business that generated $9.5 billion in revenue last year. Meanwhile the non-online businesses, which bring in three-quarters of sales, are doing great. The movie unit is riding high with Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings. In television, HBO continues to perform, and both TNT and the WB will benefit from any ad surge. To be sure, AOL is a gamble. But if you have a long-term horizon, it might be a bet worth making. Merrill Lynch's Jessica Reif Cohen recently upgraded the stock to a buy based on valuation and has a $25 target in mind. Even if it takes 18 months, that would be a 47% return.

Hedge Your Bets

In a sector as volatile and complex as media, you might prefer to put your money with a proven investor and let him figure out how to deploy it. Enter John Malone. His Liberty Media has billions of dollars invested in media and telecommunications companies around the globe, including small percentages of AOL and Vivendi, and larger chunks of News Corp., Discovery Communications, QVC, and USA Interactive. This spring Malone was rebuffed by European regulators in his attempt to acquire Deutsche Telekom's cable business and become the world's largest cable operator. Liberty stock has suffered as a result. It's down 21% for the year. The company, however, is more than the sum of Malone's dealmaking. In recent days Invesco's Greenberg, who pegs the value of Liberty's assets at roughly $18 a share, has been snapping up Liberty stock. It's now 4% of his fund. He has confidence in the dealmaker's plans to extend his empire abroad. Although regarded as brilliant, Malone hasn't always been consistent, as shareholders in cable company TCI can attest. However, "Malone's made a lot of money for investors in the past, and he's in the right business," says Greenberg. "No matter where I go in the world, everybody likes to watch TV."