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As 2004 progresses, I'll have my eye on three areas of the food and foodservice industries. First, I'll monitor the signs of economic improvement we began to see late in 2003, which have continued into the earliest days of 2004. Second will be consumers' shift away from a focus on convenience-oriented foods, and a move toward eating with health concerns in mind. Third, I expect to see continued increases in consumer demand for fresh food products and restaurant menu options.

Here's a look at how I believe these areas could play out in the year ahead.

Impact of Economic Recovery

Restaurants endured a full year of declines, and then six months of steady increases at the end of 2003. Clearly, they're starting off 2004 in a strong position. It should be a good year for restaurants, at least through the first half of the year. In fact, 2004 could be the best year the restaurant industry has seen in about four years. In general, Americans want someone else to prepare their meals. And when they're feeling better about what's in their wallets -- as we suspect they will be this year -- they're likely to spend at restaurants. The economic recovery we began to see in the fourth quarter of 2003 could mean big business for U.S. restaurants in 2004. Fast food stands to be an important part of the industry's improvement, as long as chains continue to address changing consumer tastes and health concerns.

Consumers Focus on Healthier Food Options

Consumers' focus has started to shift away from convenience food products (although the need for convenience still exists), and health-related concerns have taken center stage. Healthy eating options will become even more important as 2004 progresses. The big health trend right now is consumers' search for ?low carb' options that don't sacrifice taste, and that's showing no sign of slowing. This year, as more manufacturers and restaurants introduce low-carb options, consumers will go from category to category in search of what tastes good. I expect the low-carb interest will be similar to the low-fat craze we witnessed in the 1990's. The bottom line is that consumers want to eat the same way they've always eaten, but they also want to be healthier. They don't want to give up their favorite foods, but they want to lose weight. Keep your eye on trans fats, as manufacturers work to remove this from their products. Obesity will still be the major concern this year. Americans will continue to seek out ways to lose weight by eating.

Fresh is Best

The idea of fresh ingredients and fresh foods is stacking up to be very important in 2004. The paradigm in the food business is moving from "who can provide food for the family?" to "who can provide fresh food for the family?" Fresh foods may not be as convenient as the prepared and packaged options U.S. consumers have become accustomed to, but consumers want fresh and healthy this year. How food manufacturers, retailers and restaurant operators provide consumers with "fresh" in 2004 will be interesting to watch. And at some point, it's a fair assumption that consumers will demand "fresh" that's also convenient -- another challenge to food and foodservice manufacturers and marketers!