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I was wondering whether to duck and cover as I was taught in elementary school, or run to the supermarket and stock up on necessities (water, canned goods, toilet paper and "pupperoni" for the dog), when some wisdom and perspective appeared in the wilderness. Don Straszheim sent me his latest newsletter.

Straszheim Global Advisors is an independent research firm founded by Merrill Lynch's former chief economist. The company is neither a broker nor an investment adviser, and it doesn't provide investment advice or recommendations, but Straszheim does brings a wealth of experience when it comes to interpreting and weathering the current geopolitical crisis. His latest missive is thought-provoking.

There is clearly relief on Wall Street that this war uncertainty has been lifted. Over the past two days the Dow has gained over 330 points and, as I write this column, troops are being readied and bombs may be less than 24 hours away from being dropped. But war is white noise, although this one will be short-lived, if the consensus is correct. Markets eventually will have to return economic fundamentals, and a quick war by itself will not lift our gross domestic product. Without robust economic growth we will not see new jobs created, and consumer spending will start to falter. Without robust growth and increased demand, companies will still be faced with overcapacity from the rampant expansion of the 1990s; employers won't do any new hiring until their existing resources are being used to their fullest.

There is also an almost unanimous opinion that the price of crude oil will fall dramatically once the fighting is over. Most look to the 1991 Persian Gulf War as a template, but things were different in 1991. Now crude oil inventories are at their lowest level in 30 years, thanks to turmoil in Venezuela, a colder-than-anticipated winter in much of the nation, and the fact that OPEC is very cohesive in its effort to support prices -- once crude oil falls below $30 per barrel, OPEC may curb production.

Oil imports are just a little over 1 percent of GDP now versus 3 percent in 1980, but the danger that prices will stay high increases the chance of a double-dip recession. And maybe it's just the skeptic in me, but after the Enron debacle, I see price gouging. Just substitute the word "electricity" for "gasoline" and you have the California energy crisis that, in retrospect, took a lot of consumers and corporations for a very costly ride.

Many think of crude oil prices only showing up at the gasoline pump and hurting those much maligned SUV drivers (I'm one of them), but several companies have already warned that higher prices will hurt their bottom lines. Makers of raw materials such as steel, wood and chemicals are usually hit hardest by rising energy costs because they use large amounts of electricity and steam to power massive manufacturing facilities. Cardboard box makers could face another round of earnings revisions due to higher energy costs. Eastman Chemical, a big maker of plastic beverage bottles as well as chemicals used to make adhesives, coating and inks warned that this year's first-quarter profits will fall below estimates thanks to higher raw materials costs. Lyondell Chemical also warned that earnings would be hurt particularly by the cost of reduced supplies from Venezuela (which provides 10 percent of oil used in the United States). Expect more companies to scale back spending to make up for the rising costs, endangering this fragile economic recovery.

"Us versus them" diplomatic positions have hardened and may have long-term implications for globalization. The rift with France and Germany is real and very serious. Straszheim wants to wait and gauge the staying power of populist movements to boycott French products and do things like rename sliced potato strips to "Freedom fries.".

Watch and see if the Euro zone will split. While Germany and France may be on the same side in opposing the war with Iraq, they have fundamentally different economies that require different (and sometimes opposing) remedies. Straszheim is more sanguine about US relations with China and Russia. And the Islamic world is an unknown variable. Will this war be seen as an attack against a country, or an assault on a religion?

And what happens after the war is over? The fact that we're facing weak global support means that we may have to foot the lion's share of the rebuilding effort. Is this an optimal use of our funds? The United States paid about 12 percent, or $7 billion, of the Persian Gulf War's total costs; the bulk of expenses were shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. But this time, with many countries dubious about the war effort, the full brunt of combat costs may fall on U.S. taxpayers, as we finance this effort through deficits.

And finally, if things weren't contentious enough in Washington, it's only 19 months until the November 2004 elections.

With national support for the war 50-50 at best, Straszheim sees partisanship on the rise, which could make the wheels of government harder to turn. You were hoping for some tax relief, maybe even a prescription drug plan? Let's see what legislation is proposed, much less passed.

Makes ducking and covering or even going to the supermarket to fight for necessities look like a day at the beach.