Subject Civics, Government, Politics, Current Events

Estimated Time

One 45-minute class period

Grade

7 - 12

Objective

Students will:

1. Try to predict the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election. They will examine both historical election results as well as the current battleground/undecided states.


2. Work in small groups to determine the issues that are affecting voters today in each of the undecided states.


3. Examine historical elections before 1992 to see the shifts that have occurred in the American political landscape.


4. Look at the historical voting pattern in each battleground state and come up with reasons as to why their states are undecided.


5. Examine campaign ads in battleground states in order to see the message being conveyed by both political parties.

Procedure:

Introduction/Background :  Although polls have XXX leading XXX, the 2016 presidential election is still up for grabs. Many states appear to have been firmly Democratic or Republican over the past twenty years, but some of these states have had closer voting results than expected. The battleground states – currently seven (New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado) do not have a clear political allegiance. Many factors, including ethnic diversity, unemployment, home foreclosures, union membership, and religious affiliation, play a role in determining the way the Electoral College will vote.

1. For homework the night before, have students review the Electoral College lesson plan.


2. In class, begin by going to the PBS Newshour VOTE 2012 website . Look at the Electoral College Calculator map and discuss the current prediction of electoral votes for Obama vs. Romney. Note the category labeled “Tossup.” Explain the difference between Blue/Democratic, Red/Republican, Yellow/Battleground states.


3. Ask the students if they know what the 2008 Election map looked like. Do they think that political party allegiance has remained constant over the past 20 years? Or have the states shifted their loyalties?


4. Distribute a Historical Results worksheet . Using the “Historical Results” section of the map , go through the elections over the past 20 years and ask students to answer the questions on their worksheet.


5. Divide the class into seven groups – one for each battleground state (New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada). Hand out the Battleground State worksheet. Explain to the students that their goal is to determine which way their state will go (Democratic/Republican) and to justify their decision.


6. When each group is done with the Battleground State worksheet , the class should come back together. Using the Electoral College Calculator map, have each group report on which way their state would go and why.


7. After all of the groups have reported, record the final electoral vote. Then, on November 7, the day after Election Day, the class can check their predicted Electoral College results against the actual election results!

Extension Activities

1. Have students examine the electoral history of their home state. They can look at the different maps as well to see how the economy, diversity, religion, and other factors influence the political allegiances of their state.


2. Students can continue to check in with their battleground state in the weeks closer to the election. They should see if their state starts to lean Republican or Democratic, and they could write up weekly reports about their state.


3. Students also can examine the Electoral College Calculator to see if other states become battleground states in the weeks before the November 2012 election.


4. Students can explore the six Senate races that are receiving national attention. How does the composition of the Congress affect the president?

By Stephanie Schragger, New York