Moderate, but Solidly
Democratic
By Professor Howard Reiter of University of Connecticut
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Like its southern New England neighbors, Connecticut is a predominantly Democratic state. Although it has had a Republican governor, John G. Rowland, since 1995, he is only the second Republican to hold the office since 1954. Democrats occupy all four statewide offices below governor and lieutenant governor, control both houses of the state legislature, and claim both United States Senators and four of the state's six members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
On the whole, the state's politics are ideologically moderate. By most measures it ranks first or second in the nation in personal wealth, but has some of the poorest cities. This latter fact is in part due to the inability of Connecticut's cities to absorb their suburbs. The state's economy, which was for a long time dependent on insurance and defense contractors, has had to adapt to turmoil in both those industries. As a consequence of all these developments, the issues that concern the state's voters are similar to those of the nation as a whole: economic growth, education, taxation, and the plight of the cities. As in most of New England, the religious right has been almost invisible in Connecticut, and its agenda has not been a factor in the state's politics.
For the past fifty years, Connecticut has been a bellwether in presidential elections, failing to back the winner only in 1968 and 1976. This makes prognostication about 2000 very difficult. The only statewide race in 2000 will be Senator Joseph Lieberman's bid for a third term. Popular among fellow Democrats and conservative enough to assuage Republicans, Lieberman is widely regarded as a safe bet for re-election; Republicans have been having a difficult time finding an opponent. All but one of the state's U.S. Representatives are also considered heavy favorites. The exception is James Maloney, a Democrat from the traditionally swing 5th District (Waterbury, Danbury, and Meriden). He won his second term in 1998 by only 2,343 votes, and his opponent, Mark Nielsen, is planning a rematch. Both national parties are giving this race a high priority. All seats in Connecticut's General Assembly are up in 2000, and the results will have implications for national politics: The 2000 Census is expected to cost Connecticut one House seat, and the ensuing reapportionment will be closely watched.
The Democratic party is divided between liberals, such as Senator Christopher Dodd and Representatives Rosa DeLauro (New Haven region) and Sam Gejdenson (eastern Connecticut), and moderates, including Senator Lieberman and Representatives Maloney and John Larson (Hartford area). After the 1998 elections Dodd and others unsuccessfully tried to oust the state chair, Edward Marcus, considered part of the party's old guard. No resistance to Lieberman's renomination is anticipated. The presidential primary could result in a Bradley victory; while Gore has long been popular with the party's establishment, Connecticut Democrats have often voted for insurgents in their presidential primary (Kennedy in 1980, Hart in 1984, Brown in 1992).
True to their regional image, Connecticut's Republicans stand to the left of their party, especially on social issues. Rowland has been a far more pragmatic and less conservative governor than he had been as a member of Congress, and Representatives Nancy Johnson (northwestern Connecticut) and Christopher Shays (southern Fairfield County) are prominent members of their party's moderate wing. Rowland has been one of many governors to endorse Bush, whose father of course has roots in the state, and there is no reason at this point not to consider Bush the heavy favorite in the presidential primary.
